564
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar: A tropical wave near 70W and associated surface
low pressure to the north of this wave have rapidly developed into
Hurricane Oscar today. Oscar is centered near 21.4N 70.6W at
19/1800 UTC or 140 nm ESE of the Southeastern Bahamas, moving W at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed via satellite from 20N to 24N
between 67W and 72W. A gradual slowdown and turn to the west-
southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Some
additional strengthening is possible today before gradual
weakening begins early next week. Hurricane conditions are
expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon,
making outside preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, are expected across
the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern
Bahamas through Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Nadine: Satellite and radar images indicate that
Nadine made landfall in Belize, near Belize City around 1100 AM
CDT (1600 UTC). Nadine is centered near 17.6N 88.5W at 19/1800
UTC or 20 nm WNW of Belize City, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous strong
convection is observed near and within 220 nm of the center of
Nadine. Seas are reaching 12 ft off the eastern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. A faster westward motion is expected during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to
move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico
through Sunday. Weakening is expected, and Nadine will likely
dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-conditions are expected
across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through the afternoon.
Weakening is expected as the storm moves inland, and it will
likely dissipate by late Sunday. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall
amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward
to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are
also possible through late Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding is
possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where
the center moves inland.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Oscar and Nadine at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave associated with Hurricane Oscar.

A tropical wave is along 29W from 20N southward, moving west at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
19N between 25W and 33W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N23W and then westward to 10N25W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 10N35W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along and generally within 300 nm of both the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far southwest Caribbean and into northern Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations indicate
fresh to strong NE to E winds persisting across most of the Gulf,
south of strong high pressure building over the eastern United
States, and north of a frontal boundary stalled to the southeast
of the Gulf. The scatterometer data showed near-gale force winds
across the Straits of Florida to off western Cuba. Combined seas
are 8 to 12 ft across much of the Gulf east of 95W, per recent
altimeter data. Moderate seas prevail to the west of 93W. A few
showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the Yucatan Channel
on the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Nadine.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very
rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through Mon
morning as strong high pressure builds over the southeast United
States. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish by the middle
of next week as the high pressure weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Nadine, and on the tropical wave associated with
now-Tropical Storm Oscar.

Aside from Tropical Storm Nadine over the northwestern Caribbean,
moderate to fresh E winds prevail across much of the basin. Seas
in the NW Caribbean are estimated at 8 to 12 ft, highest near the
center of Nadine. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nadine will move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 17.3N 89.5W this evening.
Tropical Depression Nadine will be inland at 16.8N 92.3W Sun
morning, then dissipate Sun evening. Lingering rough seas over the
northwest Caribbean will subside into Mon, leaving gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into late next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Oscar.

A cold front enters the region near 31N60W and extends
southwestward to near 26N72W. A stationary front then continues
southwestward to inland western Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed just ahead of the cold front. Little to no significant
convection is noted with these features, but fresh to strong NE
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are analyzed north of these features
in the open Atlantic. To the east of Tropical Storm Oscar,
convergent surface winds are aiding in the development of
scattered moderate convection from 20N to 23N between 61W and 65W.
All other notable areas of convection in the Atlantic are
associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Elsewhere east of 35W, gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trades with 6 to 8 ft
seas farther south into the tropical Atlantic. Farther east over
the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, Oscar will move to 21.4N 71.9W this
evening, 21.2N 73.8W Sun morning, and 20.9N 74.9W Sun evening.
Oscar will reach 21.0N 75.8W Mon morning, 21.6N 75.9W Mon
evening, and 22.5N 75.0W Tue morning. Elsewhere, a nearly
stationary front from 31N63W to central Cuba will drift eastward
as a cold front north of 25N through Sun, then weaken to a trough
through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas will prevail west of the front through early next week.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the basin by
mid week.

$$
Adams