301
AXNT20 KNHC 221101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States,
north of 30N and east of 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing cold
front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the
Bahamas today through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur
north of 30N today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas will
accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of
28N between 77W and 65W. Long-period N swell with this front will
produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough
seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater
than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N30W to
06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 12N between 40W and 49W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 20W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N83W to 29N87W to 29N90W in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite data
show strong N to NW winds occurring north of 27.5N and east of
87.5W ahead of the front. Marine observations indicate seas of 6
to 8 ft near these winds. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds,
confirmed by scatterometer satellite data, are occurring across
central and eastern portions of the basin, as well as in far
southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 7 to
8 ft are noted in the Yucatan Channel behind a cold front moving
through the central Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, building high
pressure in the western Gulf is supporting light to gentle N to
NE winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, the cold front moving through the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh NW winds across the
eastern half of the basin this morning, and strong N winds will
occur north of 27N and east of 88.5W. Locally rough seas will
occur near the strongest winds. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft
will continue through the Yucatan Channel this morning behind the
cold front in the central Caribbean. Winds across the basin will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Sat morning as high
pressure develops over the southeastern United States. Moderate
to locally fresh SE winds look to develop over the western Gulf
Sun into early next week ahead of developing low pressure in the
central United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 21N77W to 17N80W to 14N83W. Widely
scattered convection is noted in the central Caribbean near the
front. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh
to locally strong N to NW winds and moderate seas occurring
behind the front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean.
Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are occurring through the Yucatan
Channel. Elsewhere, the eastern edge of the Pacific monsoon
trough is leading to scattered moderate to locally strong
convection south of 13N. A weak pressure gradient dominates the
remainder of the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from eastern Cuba to
northern Nicaragua will progress southeastward through tonight to
20N77W to 10N83W, before stalling on Sat and gradually
dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue in the
wake of the front, with the strongest winds occurring offshore of
Nicaragua tonight through Sat morning. Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft
will continue behind the front through the Yucatan Channel this
morning. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and high pressure building
in the southeastern United States will promote fresh NE winds in
the Atlantic Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, and moderate
to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in E swell will develop
across much of the basin Sun through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N68W to 26N74W to 22N77W.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds and locally rough seas are
occurring along and ahead of this front, generally north of 27N.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal
boundary. A reinforcing cold front is moving into the region and
is located from 31N78W to 30N81W. Widespread fresh winds are
occurring along the east coast of Florida and strong winds are
developing north of 29N between 73W and 81W. Elsewhere, a surface
trough is analyzed over the northern Lesser Antilles from 17N63W
to 23N58W; isolated showers are observed near this trough. Another
trough, located from 25.5N to 31N39W trailing a cold front, is
leading to scattered moderate convection along and to the east of
the trough. NW swell behind this trough is supporting seas of 8
to 10 ft north of 28N between 42W and 57W. Otherwise, ridging
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Gale Warning is in effect off the
coast of the southeastern United States, north of 30N and east of
76W, in the wake of a reinforcing cold front that will quickly
sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sat
night. The strongest winds will occur north of 30N today and
tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds,
with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28N between 77W and
65W. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas
for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift
eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will
continue into next week for areas east of 65W. Meanwhile, another
cold front to the east of the aforementioned front will progress
eastward today, with fresh to strong SW winds occurring along and
ahead of the front. Winds associated with both fronts will merge
on Sat before the system lifts to the north of the area.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas will
prevail south of 20N into next week.

$$
ADAMS