453
AXNT20 KNHC 102347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Tropical Systems:
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 21.5N 63.6W at 10/2100 UTC
or 200 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 17 ft. Last visible imagery showed that Jerry`s center
remains somewhat ill defined and embedded along the eastern end
of a southeast-to-northwest oriented surface trough. Strong
vertical upper-level north to northwest shear continues to
displace much of the associated deep convection south-southeast
of the center. This convection consists of the numerous strong
type intensity within 240 nm southeast of the center and within
120 nm northeast and east of of the center. To its south and
southwest similar type- intensity convection is seen from 14.5N
to 18N between 62W and 65W. It is producing heavy rains over
portions of the Leeward Islands. A turn toward the north is
expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Sat
night. A northeastward to eastward motion is forecast Sun and
Mon. Moisture associated with Jerry combined with local
orographic effects may result in an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rain as well across eastern Puerto Rico. Swells generated by
Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Sat. Please consult products
from your local weather office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Jerry,
please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropcial wave was introduced on the 18 UTC surface map
near 22W from 02N to 17N based on guidance from the GFS-based
SUNY-ALBANY Tropical Trough Diagnostics and satellite imagery
animation. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm west of the wave from 04N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 21N40W to
near 10N42W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south-southwest of the
wave from 09N to 12N between 42W and 47W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from the Windward
Passage southward to northern Colombia. It is moving westward at
near 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and
just inland the coast of Colombia between 74W and 76W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 120-150 nm either side
of the wave from 11N to 14N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the
Yucatan Channel southward to across eastern Honduras and
central Nicaragua and to the far northwest portion of
Costa Rica. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea from 18N extending north to western Cuba and between 83W and
85W. This activity is being further enhanced by a surface to
mid-level trough present over western Cuba, and that reaches to
the far northwestern Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Senegal and Gambia, and continues southwestward to
08N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N30W and to
09N40W to 10N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28N-31W,
and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-34W.
Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ to near
13N between 34W-39W and between 41W-47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain
across eastern Mexico.

A trough extends from a 1012 mb low that is  pressure near Cape
Canaveral, FL to western Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from southern Florida southward across the
Florida Straits to central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong
northeast winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are over the NE Gulf.
Mostly gentle northeast winds and 3 to 4 ft seas dominate the
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley and a trough in the SE Gulf
is resulting in moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of the
basin. Strong winds and rough seas are found in the NE Gulf and
this will continue into Sat. A cold front, associated with a
developing low pressure locate offshore north-central Florida,
will move across the SE Gulf this weekend, and dissipate by Mon.
Marine conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf region
late Sat and Sun, a high pressure builds across the basin in the
wake of the front. The associated ridge will sustain mainly a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas into early
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Jerry located about 200 nm north of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Very moist southerly flow inflowing into Tropical Storm Jerry
is resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
some strong, over most of the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters.
Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate
waters near the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft
are over the northwestern and southeastern sections of the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and waters near the ABC
Islands. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue
to impact the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean
through this afternoon. Large E swell will continue to propagate
across the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands and the
Anegada Passage today, producing moderate to rough seas. High
pressure will begin to build from the central Atlantic to the
Bahamas late Sun and Mon to bring a return of the trade winds
across the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Jerry located about 200 nm north of the northern Leeward
Islands.

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N58W west-southwestward
to 30N70W and to a 1012 mb low near Cape Canaveral, FL. A
surface trough extends from this low to western Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen west of 73W, including over
the northern and central Bahamas to inland South Florida.
Farther east, a trough extends from near 31N31W to 27N47W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of the trough
to 25N and between 30W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft
are present near and north of the stationary front. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed
swell is south of the front west of 66W. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds and seas of 9 to 14 ft are north of Tropical
Storm Jerry, north of 22N between 57W and 66W. Farther east,
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
in moderate to large north swell are exist north of 21N between
35W and 57W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft are east of Jerry and north of about 10N.
For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate
southeast to south winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate
swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast to
move to near 23.4N 63.6W Sat morning, 25.9N 63.2W Sat afternoon,
28.3N 62.7W Sun morning, 30.3N 62.0W Sun afternoon, 31.4N 60.4W
Mon morning, and 31.4N 58.0W Mon afternoon. Jerry will become
extratropical as it moves to near 30.1N 52.5W Tue afternoon. A
developing low pressure system located offshore of north-central
Florida will move northeastward through the weekend. The
associated cold front will extend from the low center across
south Florida into the SE Gulf of America. The front is forecast
to move slowly southeastward and dissipate by Mon. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the
front on Sat.

$$
Aguirre