865
AXNT20 KNHC 212318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 22
 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect for a portion of the SW N Atlantic for westerly
gale winds in the wake of reinforcing cold front that will
quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas starting
late tonight through Sat night. Along with these winds, seas are
expected to build to 12 to 15 ft by Fri evening, covering mainly
the waters N of 28N between 70W and 76W. These seas will shift
eastward roughly N of 30N, reaching the forecast waters between
55W and 65W on Sun before moving E of 55W early on Mon.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal
plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues westward to
near 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 08N40W to 10N58W.
Scattered moderate convection can be found from 03N to 09N
between 17W and 24W, and from 07N to 12N between 40W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1027 mb located over Texas near 29N97W has a
ridge that covers the entire Gulf of Mexico and the State of
Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted per scatterometer
data E of 90W while gentle to moderate N winds prevail W of 90W.
Fresh N winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are still noted in the Bay of
Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds dominate the southern
half of the Gulf while clear skies are noted on visible satellite
imagery over the waters N of 25N, implying that a cool and drier
air mass has invaded the area. A reinforcing cold front will move
across the eastern Gulf and Florida on Friday, bringing in even
cooler temperatures for the weekend.

For the forecast, lingering northerly swell producing seas of 8
to 9 ft over the eastern Gulf and south-central Gulf S of 27N
will gradually subside through Fri morning as high pressure
continues to settle in over the basin. The high pressure will
shift eastward to the NE Gulf early Sun when gentle to moderate
SE to S winds are expected over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to
locally fresh SE to S return flow develops over the western
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted near the southern
end of the front affecting the Bay Islands and NE Honduras. Fresh
to strong N winds are behind the front, increasing to strong
speeds S of 18N into the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
the wake of the front. A weak pressure gradient dominates the
remainder of the basin where a light to gentle wind flow is
evident, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. A few showers are over the
eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of a surface trough that
extends from near Guadeloupe Island to to 13N67W.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to
near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the
Windward Passage to near the Costa Rica-Panama border Sat morning,
where the front should stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to
strong N winds and building seas will follow the front through
Sat before winds begin to veer NE to E through Sun and diminish
slightly going into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and central
Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are on
either side of the front N of 27N. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. A surface trough
runs northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to
near 21N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near the trough axis. A ridge dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to gentle winds are noted
under the influence of the ridge. An area of 8 to 10 ft in NW
swell covers the waters N of 28N between 42W and 59W. Moderate
seas in northerly swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Gale Warning is in effect for a
portion of the northwest waters for westerly gale winds in the
wake of reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas starting late tonight through Sat
night. Along with these winds, seas are expected to build to 12
to 15 ft. These seas will shift eastward roughly N of 30N reaching
the NE forecast waters Sun before moving E of 55W early on Mon.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near
31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near
the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front is expected to
stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through
the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on
either side of the front N of about 26N.

$$
GR