110
AXNT20 KNHC 031629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1626 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force S or
SW winds, veering to W or SW in Madeira through 04/03 UTC, the
Northern Canary Islands from 03/12 UTC through at least 03/21
UTC, and SW in Agadir from 03/12 UTC through 03/21 UTC. Rough to
very rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more
details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N14W and
extends southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to
02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
south of 07N along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure has been analyzed over norther
Mexico and southeast Texas, and the subtropical ridge extends
from the western Atlantic through the central Gulf of America. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
strong S to SE winds west of 85W, with moderate to fresh SE winds
occurring to the east. Rough seas are found west of 89W while
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High to low pressure over N Mexico/Texas will continue forcing
fresh to near gale SE winds across the Gulf through Sat afternoon.
On Sat night, a strong late-season cold front will emerge off of
the Texas coast. Fresh to near gale N winds and rapidly building
seas will follow the front over the W Gulf on Sun and Mon with N
gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning. Looking ahead to Mon
morning, the cold front will extend from the Florida panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche with N winds fresh to strong following the
front and near gale NW winds off of Veracruz.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low has been analyzed just off the coast of Colombia
near 10N75W, and ridging extends over the rest of the Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh
to strong trades and rough seas in the central and eastern
Caribbean, with similar winds near the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are
mainly moderate to fresh elsewhere. Away from the aforementioned
areas, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to strong
trades across the Caribbean through Sat morning with near gales
just north of Colombia. From Sat through early next week, the
Bermuda High weakens leading toward reduced winds. However, strong
trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola
and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sat and Sun. Looking ahead to
Mon, as the weakened Bermuda High shifts eastward, trades across
the Caribbean will be reduced to only moderate to fresh.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning in
effect for the Meteo-France area.

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1036 high pressure centered
north of the area near 42N66W, with the subtropical ridge axis
extending southward into the subtropical and tropical Atlantic. A
complex low pressure system has been analyzed between the Canary
Islands and the Azores. A cold front associated with the complex
low pressure enters our waters near  31N15W and extends
southwestward to 30N30W. These features are supporting W to NW
fresh to gale-force winds north of 27N and east of 20W per latest
observation from satellite derived winds. Associated large seas
of 8 to 12 ft cover the waters north of 21N between the W coast of
Africa and 35W, with seas of 12 to 16 ft occurring N of 26N
between 14W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 7
to 11 ft prevail across much of the basin W of 30W and S of 25N.
The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades
and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue
to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through Fri night.
As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next week, fresh
to strong trades will be restricted to near the SE Bahamas and the
Windward Passage. Beginning Sat night, a large N swell will start
impacting the zones east of 65W and will continue through at
least Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S winds are
slated to develop off the coast of N Florida on Sun ahead of a
cold front moving through the SE United States. The cold front is
forecast to move off of the coast early next week.

$$
KRV