367
AXNT20 KNHC 191607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from
08N to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the wave along the monsoon
trough between 42W and 45.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is also noted across north portions of
the tropical wave and extend will north of the wave, from 19N to
29N between 39W and 44W, due to a sharp surface trough extending
N-NE from the tropical wave interacting with an upper trough
northwest of the tropical wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 81W south of
19N to western Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. A low
level wind surge accompanying the northern portion of the wave has
moved ahead of the wave axis and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered
to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
16N to 22N between 79W and 87.5W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted along and S of the monsoon trough near
the wave between 76W and 83.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16.5W to 08N28W to 14N40W to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N55W to 10.5N62W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 13N E of 20W to the
African coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
10N between 20W and 32W, and within 180 nm NE semicircle of 1012
mb low pressure near 14N52.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A band of scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms remains
active over the southeast and south-central Gulf, from 22.5N to
26.5N and E of 94.5W to the Florida coast, supported by a pair of
upper-level low centers dominating the basin. A weak 1012 mb
surface low has developed below the western-most upper low near
24.5N93W. Elsewhere at the surface, a weak high pressure remains
across the SE U.S. and extends a broad ridge southward across the
northern Gulf, and is producing light to gentle NE to E winds
across the Gulf waters N of 26N. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across this
area, except 4 to 5 ft within 150 nm N of the low at 24.5N93W. S
of 26N light S to SE winds prevail, with isolated showers dotting
the SW portions. Seas there are 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain
generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin for the next
several days. An upper-level low and associated surface
low/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure across the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South
America is allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central
Caribbean from 11N to 16N between 67W and 80W, where seas remain
at 6-9 ft. Light to moderate trades are found elsewhere along
with seas of 4-5 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas
over the northwest and northeast Caribbean. Upper-level low
centers over the Gulf of America are promoting unstable conditions
across the NW Caribbean, and supporting active convection ahead of
the tropical wave there, and described above. Elsewhere, fair
skies prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the eastern Caribbean and the Colombian Low
will maintain fresh to briefly strong trades over the S central
Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low
over the Gulf of America ill promote scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next
two days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Atlantic
W of 50W today, allowing for upper level features to dominate the
weather. An upper-level low over Florida and the NE Gulf of
America is interacting with abundant low level moisture moving W
and NW to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection across the Bahamas and adjacent areas S of 27N and W of
69W. Winds are light and variable across much of this area, except
near thunderstorms, with light to moderate trades N of Hispaniola
and into the SE Bahamas. Seas are 4 ft or less.

To the E, an upper level trough extends into the area along 28n,
between 40W and 60W. Moisture shearing northward away from the
northern end of the tropical wave along 44W-45W is interacting
favorably with the upper trough to produce scattered to locally
numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 19N to 29N
between 39W and 44W. Other scattered moderate convection is noted
south of a surface trough along 25N between 48W and 60W. Winds are
also light to gentle and variable W of 44W, except moderate near
the tropical wave, and moderate to fresh near a drifting 1012 mb
surface low near 14N52.5W. East of 44W, the Azores High extends a
ridge southwestward into the area waters, producing moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds N of 10N and E of 28W, and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere between 28W and 40W, becoming moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds near the tropical wave. Seas are 5 to
7 ft E of 28W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere between 28W and 40W, and 5
to 6 ft with and just behind the tropical wave.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient across the
western Atlantic waters will promote only gentle to moderate
winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous
upper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the waters
west of 70W for at least the next two days.

$$
Stripling