780
AXNT20 KNHC 191730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to
the east of the tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along 10N
from 74W westward in Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 12N southward from 75W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 12N/14N from Senegal to 34W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 03N to
the monsoon trough from 35W eastward; and from 01N to 12N between
35W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through the
SE Florida coast near 27N, to 24N83W in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N
southward from 88W eastward.

An inland Mexico surface trough passes through 20N100W, to
the coastal plains of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the entire Gulf.

Weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will support gentle to
locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the
upcoming weekend. Moderate winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of
Campeche nightly through the next several days. A cold front is
forecast to clip the far NE waters today into Fri with little
change in winds and seas. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure could form early next week over the western and NW
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves
slowly to the N or NW over the NW Caribbean Sea and into the SE
Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE
Gulf by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
84W/85W tropical wave, and the monsoon trough that is along 10N in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough passes through 14N58W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the SE Caribbean Sea, to 13N65W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the
surface trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

Mostly moderate to some fresh easterly winds are from 18N
southward between 64W and 81W; and from 20N southward from 83W
westward in the NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the area. Mostly moderate seas are in the
Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas from 11N
southward from Colombia westward; and slight to moderate seas
elsewhere from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.16 in Trinidad; 0.11 in Tegucigalpa; 0.07
in Guadeloupe; 0.04 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; and 0.03 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across the
E and central Caribbean, with light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin through
at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could
form early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of
next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N79W, beyond the SE Florida coast
near 27N, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 70W westward,
including in Florida from 26N southward. The 24-hour rainfall
totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are:
0.72 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.07 in Freeport in the Bahamas.
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 26N69W.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 26N northward between
43W and 56W. Rough seas are from the stationary front and surface
trough northward between 50W and 60W. Near-rough seas are from 22N
to the stationary front/surface trough between 54W and 60W, and
from the stationary front northward between 35W and 42W.A 1008
mb low pressure center is near 25N55W. A surface trough extends
northwestward from the 1008 mb low pressure center to 28N60W.
A stationary front extends from the 1008 mb low pressure center
to a 1010 mb 25N46W low pressure center. A surface trough extends
from the 1010 mb low pressure center toward the southwest, to
20N47W 16N50W, beyond 13N60W, into the SE Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 23N to 30N between 40W and 46W to the east and to the
northeast of the 1010 mb low pressure center. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on
either side of the surface trough that passes through 16N50W and
13N60W. A stationary front extends from the 1010 mb low pressure
center to a 29N36W 1013 mb low pressure center. A surface trough
continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center to 29N29W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 26W and
70W.

A surface trough is to the north of the area, along 31N/32N from
22W eastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 25N northward from 22W eastward.

Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Some
exceptions are for slight seas in the Bahamas; and from 09N to 26N
between 20W and 35W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are to the
south of the line: 09N14W 06N31W 09N45W 10N60W. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

An area of low pressure is centered near 25N55W. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will impact the waters N of 25N and E of 60W
through Fri. Expect pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the coast
of Hispaniola through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move
off the SE CONUS tonight and slowly move across the waters N of
25N through Mon. A reinforcing front will enter the NW offshore
waters Mon followed by fresh winds and rough seas.

$$
mt/al