079
AXNT20 KNHC 061623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1555 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 08N and between 32W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N19W to 05N39W and then from 05N41W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough
and east of 18W and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing a few
showers. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
weak ridge centered over the SE United States, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds
and moderate seas are present west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into
the eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into
the central Gulf through early next week. Moderate to fresh,
locally strong, E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect
moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and south-central
Gulf through Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and
Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the
eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon trough are found across the
SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, low-level convergence is noted in the SE
Caribbean, resulting in shower activity impacting the Windward
Islands and nearby waters. The rest of the basin is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge north of the islands. The tight pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics support fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft
(1.5-2.5 m). Moderate to locally fresh breezes and moderate seas
are prevalent in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
NW of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into
the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next week. This
pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough
seas across most of the central basin and Gulf of Honduras through
Sat, then increase across most of the basin Sat night into early
next week. Seas will build to rough in the Tropical N Atlantic by
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A surface trough extends to NE Florida from a low pressure system
in the Outer Banks. Scattered showers are seen ahead of the trough
axis. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas are
evident north of 29N and west of 73W. Farther east, a stationary
front enters the basin near 31N56W and continues southwestward to
26N65W, followed by a surface trough to 24N69W. A few showers are
noted near these boundaries. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds
and moderate seas are occurring north of stationary front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
an expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh
easterly winds between 35W and 60W. seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m)
are observed in the waters described. Similar winds and seas are
evident east of 35W and from 12N and 25N. Fresh to locally strong
N winds and seas of 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are noted north of 28N and
east of 14W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front SE of Bermuda
will drift northward and dissipate through tonight. Weak high
pressure NW of the front will shift NE and into the central
Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue.
Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening
offshore of Hispaniola early next week, and pulsing moderate to
fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N.

$$
Delgado