921
AXNT20 KNHC 311616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
is centered near 27.8N 91.0W at 31/1500 UTC or 110 nm S of Morgan
City Louisiana, moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Rough seas are building, mainly to the north of
the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
present north of 26N and between 88W and 92W. A continued slow
west-northwest motion is expected for the next day or two, and the
system is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Tue.
Strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 08N to 16N and between 39W and 49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed S of 12N between 74W and 77W.

The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean has moved
inland into Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N41W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 09N61W. Convection near these features
is primarily associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave,
described above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting
gentle or weaker winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move to
near 28.3N 91.8W this evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt, to near 29.1N 93.2W Tue morning with maximum
sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and inland to near 29.9N 94.4W
Tue evening, to near 31.1N 95.5W Wed morning and dissipate Wed
evening. Conditions will improve Tue. Away from this system, weak
high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information about convection
in the southwest basin. A westward-moving surface trough over
Haiti is inducing scattered moderate convection for the offshore
waters of Hispaniola.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
basin and lower pressure in the deep tropics is leading to
moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin,
with locally strong winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this
region are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are moderate in the SW
Caribbean, with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW.

For the forecast, the surface trough currently over Haiti will
impact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed. Elsewhere across the
basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and
Colombian low will continue to induce fresh to locally strong
easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the
central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the
remainder of the waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section above for information about convection
south of 20N. Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue
to produces scattered moderate convection N of 25N and E of 65W. A
surface trough along 62W, extending southward to 25N, is also
inducing a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Farther south,
another surface trough moving westward across Haiti extends
northward to the Turks and Caicos, and is also generating
scattered thunderstorms. A final area of convection is cluster
around 28N48W, in association with a deep-layer trough.

A zone of fresh trades is present from 65W to 75W S of 25N, where
seas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NNE winds are noted off the
African coast and near the Canary Islands, otherwise, mainly
moderate or weaker winds prevail through the basin, with moderate
seas dominant.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently over
Haiti will impact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing
similar conditions to waters S of 24N. Elsewhere, abundant
tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered
thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical
ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas.

$$
Konarik