863
AXNT20 KNHC 161556 CCA
TWDAT

Correcting Gulf discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move
into a less conducive environment, and further development is not
expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low
pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N
and between 20W and 23W

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds
across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5
ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the
western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted
over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and
Tampico, Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and
slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
southeastern United States early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and
thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective
activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough
seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next
week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N,
anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the
tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends
from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches
from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and
thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of
35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through
the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north.
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.

$$
Christensen