434
AXNT20 KNHC 302324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered showers are occurring from
04N to 13N between 30W and 36W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
depicted from 10N to 15N between 46W and 51W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 19N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
evident from 12N to 18N between 80W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 08N51W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N51W to 08N60W. A weak 1015 mb low pressure
is along the monsoon trough near 11N39W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 39W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle southwestward
to 28.5N92W, and heavy thunderstorms are occurring north of the
trough along the Louisiana coast. Elsewhere, upper-level
divergence is supporting widely scattered thunderstorms west of
90W. Farther south, scattered moderate convection over the Yucatan
Peninsula is pushing into the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-
central basin. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient sustains light
to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. However,
mariners should expect stronger winds and higher seas near the
strongest convection.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the
basin through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland the
NE Gulf coast this weekend as a weakening cold front stalls across
northern Florida. This activity may spread out over some portions
of the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
western Caribbean, west of 80W. Strong thunderstorms are moving
southwestward over Cuba, entering the Caribbean Sea. Drier
conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. The
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in northern South America force
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the central
Caribbean, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of
northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas 5 to 8 ft
are noted in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean,
while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow
for fresh winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through
Sat, with winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia.
Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some with gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical
Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern
Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, reaching the central
Caribbean late Sun. In the wake of the wave, winds are forecast to
increase to fresh to strong speeds over most of the central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N65W to a 1018 mb low pressure
near 26N66W to 24N68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 24N to 31N between 55W and 70W in association with
the trough. Farther west, 1020 mb high pressure is centered near
25.5N72W. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle breezes and 2
to 4 ft seas west of 65W. Farther east, the central and eastern
Atlantic are under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge
centered by 1031 mb high pressure north of the Azores. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
northwest Africa sustain moderate to fresh N-NE winds and moderate
seas north of 20N and east of 35W. Mainly moderate easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring south of 20N and west of 35W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The
northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally
strong east to southeast winds and rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands Fri through Sat night, then to the waters north of
Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas Sun into early next
week.

$$
ADAMS