803
AXNT20 KNHC 261835 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Corrected Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same
area will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers
and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions
of Central America through at least Fri. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrains. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from
04N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N
to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W south of
17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60-90 nm of the wave axis
from 09N to 12N.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave
remains under a region of broad anticyclonic flow that is
helping to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection that
is between this wave and the one near 80W. This convection is
occurring from 14N to 21N between 80W-86W. Small clusters of
scattered moderate convection are along and just offshore the
coast of Nicaragua, with similar convection noted just offshore
Costa Rica and northern Panama. This wave is forecast to merge
into a broad cyclonic circulation that is over the eastern
Pacific Ocean associated to Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W and west-southwestward
09N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N44W. It resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N46W and continues to 08N57W.
Aside from convection related to the wave that is along a position
from 18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W, scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between the coast of Africa and
23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern Gulf.
A trough is analyzed from near Apalachicola, Florida southward to
25N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of
27N between 84W and 91W. Both buoy and scatterometer satellite
data indicate light to gentle east winds throughout, except for
east to southeast gentle winds over the far western Gulf. Seas are
in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast
to east winds will pulse each evening and night north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next wee

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean.

The present pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong
trades across the south-central portion of the basin as depicted
in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 11 ft. Mostly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are elsewhere across the basin east of 85W, except for seas of 6
to 9 ft in east swell north of 15N. Fresh trades are also in the
Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate east to
southeast winds are west of 85W with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean that is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean. Winds are expected to pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras today and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27.5N64W while a 1027
high is analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. A trough extends
from near 29N44W to 22N48W. High pressure covers the area north
of about 20N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east winds
are south of 22N between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh east
winds are elsewhere south of 24N, except for fresh northeast
winds east of  40W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft south of 24N east of the
Bahamas and to 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 3 to
4 ft over the northwest part of the area and for seas of 3 ft or
less west of the Bahamas including the Straits of Florida.

A mid to upper-level low is located just east of central Florida
as seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough extends
from 29N79W to the near the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N to 30N between 74W and the coast of
Florida. Farther east, an upper-level low dropping south is noted
near 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this
feature exists from 24N to 29N between 54W and 61W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas will
prevail south of 25N. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse late
in the afternoon and at night north of Hispaniola through early
next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre