074
AXNT20 KNHC 212009 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025

Corrected Atlantic Ocean forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Large NW swell covers the Atlantic Ocean, with rough seas to very
rough seas, from 20N northward from 40W eastward. This swell will
shift toward the south and toward the southeast during the rest of
the day today. The forecast is for the swell to start to subside
gradually by Saturday morning.

Mostly rough seas are elsewhere from 60W eastward. It is possible
that some exceptions in the area that is from 60W eastward may
consists of moderate seas to rough seas. Rough seas also are to
the north of the line that runs from the NW Bahamas beyond 31N60W.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are forecast to start
tonight, from 12N southward between 74W and 75W, in the coastal
waters of Colombia. This scenario will repeat itself, for tonight,
for Saturday night, and for Sunday night. Expect also: strong to
near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, in the central
one-third of the Caribbean Sea, during the daylight hours of
today, Saturday, and Sunday.

Moderate seas cover the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 18N southward
from 80W eastward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are from 18N southward from 70W westward.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 70W eastward.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone close to 08N13W, to 03N20W, to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N25W, to 01N32W, to 02N49W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong NE winds are from 21N to 25N between 89W and 93W. Fresh to
strong NE winds cover the remainder of the area. A cold front
passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to the coast of the NE Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough continues from the NE Yucatan
Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, and curving to 22N95W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward from
95W eastward. Rough seas are in the Straits of Florida, leading
into the south central sections, and covering the SW quadrant of
the Gulf. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area.

Near gale force winds off Veracruz will diminish to fresh speeds
through Sat. A trough will develop over the west-central and SW
Gulf today and linger through Sat night while weakening. Low
pressure will develop along the trough on Sat near South Texas,
track NE through early Sun night, then E to SE toward the
central or southern Florida during Mon. A frontal boundary will
trail from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to strong
winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate to
fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high pressure
will settle over the central Gulf Tue and Tue night in the wake
of this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the nighttime gale-force winds that are forecast for the next few
days, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Other information about
the wind speeds and the sea heights for the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea also is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to the coast of the
NE Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough continues from the NE
Yucatan Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and curving to 22N95W.

A surface trough curves through 22N72W in the SE Bahamas, through
the Windward Passage, to 16N74W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.25 in San Juan in Puerto Rico;, and 0.05 in
Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon night,
except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore
of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds off
Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Sat night. A cold
front front over the NW Caribbean will stall and gradually
dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through early Sun.
Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the
Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the Significant Swell Event, and for information about the sea
heights for the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N60W 26N70W, and beyond 22N80W in
Cuba. Strong and faster northerly winds are from 27N80W 28N70W
30N62W northward. Strong SW winds are within 60 nm to the east of
the cold front from 27N northward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in
inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are:
0.09 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are between 28N13W 25N41W 21N60W
and 01N51W 02N36W 10N17W. Strong and faster S to SW winds in
general are from 27N northward between 40W and 63W. Moderate or
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N23W to 28N40W.
The front is dissipating cold front from 28N40W to 28N38W. A
surface trough continues from 28N38W, to 26N50W 26N57W.

A cold front extends from near 31N60W southwestward to 26N71W and
to central Cuba. The front will weaken as it reaches from near
26N55W to 24N60W, continuing as a stationary front to Haiti Sat
night and dissipating soon afterward. Its remnant trough will
drift back west toward the southeastern Bahamas through Mon while
dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will
lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N, including
the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank tonight into
Sat night. Conditions improve Sun into early Mon. Later during
Mon, low pressure from the Gulf will approach central or
southern Florida, and quickly track NE through late Tue dragging
a frontal boundary across the western part of the area. Fresh to
near gale strong southwest winds are expected ahead of the low
pressure and frontal boundary along with building seas.

$$
mt/ja