940
AXNT20 KNHC 230502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off
the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours this Sun. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with these winds.
Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected during
the daytime hours. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the
presence of minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N24W to 00N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed S of 02N and E of 26W, and from 00N to 03N between 40W
and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb low pressure area is centered offshore southern Texas
near 27N95W. A cold front extends from the low to the central Bay
of Campeche while a warm front stretches eastward from the low
center to near 27N88W. Mainly low level clouds, with patches of
light rain, are noted between the cold front and the coast of
Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just N of the low
affecting the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters of the upper
Texas coast and SW Louisiana. A ridge dominates the remainder of
the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, fresh to strong winds
are noted per scatterometer data near the low center with seas of
8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are W of
the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the above mentioned low will track NE through
early Sun night, then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on
Mon with the cold front trailing from the low as it moves across
the basin. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low
pressure while moderate to fresh winds are forecast behind the
boundary. Weak high pressure will settle over the central waters
Tue through Wed night in its wake with tranquil marine conditions
across the basin. Another cold front may sweep across the basin
Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
refer to the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the gale warning area, the latest scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the
Windward Passage as well as over the south-central Caribbean. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft within these winds, increasing to 8 to 10 ft in the
Gale Warning area. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere. A weakening frontal boundary over
eastern Cuba is producing some shower activity. Shallow moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the area
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through
early Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere in the
western Caribbean will diminish by early next week as a cold front
slips SE of the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Mon night with fresh
winds behind it. The front will stall and dissipate from eastern
Cuba to eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to near gale-force
winds offshore northern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in
the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week,
and in the Tropical N Atlantic where moderate to locally rough
seas will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N45W southwestward to 23N63W
where it becomes a stationary front across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and eastern Cuba. A band of mainly low clouds with possible
showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are observed per scatterometer data in the wake of the front to
about 23N and W of 60W where seas are 7 to 10 ft. A swell event
also follows this system, with seas of 10 to 13 ft N of the front
and E of 65W based on altimeter data. High pressure of 1028 mb
located W of Bermuda near 32N72W dominates the western Atlantic
and the State of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted under the influence of this system, particularly N of 26N
and W of 60W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are seen
across the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region is dominated by 1030 mb high pressure centered
near the Madeira Islands. Its associated ridge extends SW to near
26N45W. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is noted along
the southern periphery of the ridge, mainly from 13N to 22N
between 20W and 35W. Rough seas, in long period NW swell, dominate
most of the waters E of 50W. All other areas have moderate or
weaker winds and 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will stall
and dissipate today. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front
will lead to fresh to strong NE winds S of 25N and W of the front,
including the Straits of Florida through early Sun. Rough to very
rough seas behind the front will subside across the waters W of
55W by late tonight. Broad low pressure from the Gulf of America
will approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to N 31N by late Tue
night dragging a trailing cold front across the western part of
the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail ahead of
the front and low Tue through Wed. By late Wed night, marine
conditions may improve under a weak pressure pattern. Another
front may move offshore the SE United States Thu night.

$$
GR