681
AXNT20 KNHC 220423
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0422 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has exited the coast of West Africa and its
axis is near 18.5W from 05N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection
is depicted from 06N to 16N and west of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W from
05 to 17N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 31W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51.5W from
03 to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 47W and 56.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and
continues SW to 12N25W, then W to 10N45W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 20W and
27W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 09.5W
between 34W and 46W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection in the far SW Caribbean, generally
S of 15N and W of 79W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between an upper-level trough dropping southward
toward the region and a surface trough over the FL Peninsula are
resulting in scattered moderate convection over portions of the
eastern Gulf. A weak 1017 mb high pressure centered near 29N88W
dominates the basin, resulting in moderate or weaker anticyclonic
winds and seas of less than 3 ft. The exception is to the E of
the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to locally strong NE winds are
ongoing.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail
across the basin through Wed night maintaining gentle to moderate
winds along with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening through Wed as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the NE
Gulf by Thu, and across the north-central part of the basin on Fri
as a weak area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf.
This system will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
over most of the eastern and north-central Gulf waters starting
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean.

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between
high pressure north of the region and the Colombia Low is forcing
fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean,
along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and
seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across most of the rest of the basin,
but winds in the NW Caribbean are moderate or weaker, and seas
there are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas are expected to
begin again in the Windward Passage Thu night through Fri night. A
large tropical wave, Invest AL94, is expected to move into the
Tropical N Atlantic Tue through Wed, reaching the Lesser Antilles
by Wed morning, and moving just south of Puerto Rico on Thu
morning. This wave is likely to enhance shower and thunderstorm
activity over these waters in addition to being accompanied by
fresh to strong trades near its northern portion.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aside from scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas that is
moving S on the west side of an upper- level trough, the only
convection is associated with the monsoon trough or tropical waves
and is described in the sections above. The northern portions of
the basin are dominated by the Azores high, bringing moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft for waters N of 20N. To the S
of 20N, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Farther west, west of 20W and south of 31N, fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds prevail with seas 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
continue to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast
region through Wed producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow along with mostly moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong
winds and moderate seas are expected to begin again just north of
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, starting
Tue night and continue through the rest of the week. A frontal
boundary is forecast to reach the NE waters toward the end of the
work-week with little change in winds and seas.

$$
KRV