034
AXNT20 KNHC 131647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Sep 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1646 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24.5W from
02N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 06N to 10N and from 12N to 17N between 20W
and 30W. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system`s
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
development within the next 7 days.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from
01N to 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 18.5N between 36W and
42W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W south
of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from are from 10N to 18N between 57W and
63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 87W south of
20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is depicted along the wave axis over
the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes off the coast of Africa near
17N16W to across the eastern Atlantic, reaching to 11N25W and to
10N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ from 10N43W to 12.5N59W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 14.5N and
east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from just along the Bahamas to near
24N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen S of 25N W
of 91W. Relatively weak high pressure dominates just about the
entire basin. Light to gentle winds are SE of the front, with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2
to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, a stationary front over the Straits of Florida
will weaken through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and moderate seas are expected north of the front while
mainly gentle winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere across
the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected to pulse
for the next few days offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula as a
trough moves into the eastern Bay of Campeche late each night into
the early morning hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding two tropical waves moving across the basin. The
interaction of an upper-level trough and the eastern end of the
Pacific monsoon trough is generating isolated to scattered
moderate convection south of 14N. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the Caribbean waters E of 80W. Gentle winds
prevail elsewhere W of 80W. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in
the south- central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure pattern across the
region will maintain moderate winds and seas across the Caribbean
through the early part of next week, except for gentle breezes and
slight seas across the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, expect
moderate to fresh trades in the south-central part of the sea and
along the coast of Colombia late Sun into mid week, as the ridge
builds in the wake of a passing tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to a 1010 mb low pressure
near 26N77W to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NW winds,
and seas 7 of 9 ft, prevail W of the front. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the front.
An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
north of 22.5N between 49.5W and 56.5W. High pressure dominates
the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered near 36.5N25W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7
ft, prevail N of 16N and E of 52W. Light to gentle winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active along a stationary front that extends from 30N72W to a
1010 mb low pressure over the northern Bahamas, then continues to
the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
off northeast Florida will diminish through Sun as the front
weakens and the low pressure shifts north of the area. The
Atlantic ridge will maintain generally moderate winds and seas
elsewhere across the region through mid week.

$$
KRV