773
AXNT20 KNHC 040857
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
26W, south of 15N, moving westward at near 10 kt. nearby
convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N27W to 02N39W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 16W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Gulf as well as west
of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the Gulf waters with seas in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas
across the western and south- central Gulf through Fri between a
trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean,
and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas
will continue across most of the Caribbean into late week, then
diminish slightly at the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 29N72W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm E of the front. A surface trough
extends over the NW waters off the coast of northern Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
trough. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 27N28W
to 19N30W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are found
over the waters N of 25N between 55W and 70W. Moderate winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front SE of Bermuda will
drift E across the NE waters through late this week. A surface
trough along the SE U.S. coast will bring showers and
thunderstorms offshore Florida over the next couple of days.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate. A tight pressure gradient
will lead to fresh to strong winds pulsing nightly offshore
Hispaniola through Fri.

$$
AL