685
AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1027
mb high pressure system near Bermuda and lower pressures in
northern Colombia is resulting in pulsing winds to gale force
each night and early morning offshore of Colombia. This is
expected to continue through early Fri morning. Rough to very
rough seas are forecast with these winds, peaking near 14 ft
during the highest winds. Winds and seas will diminish somewhat
during the weekend.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N37W and to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and
between 22W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary over the far NW Gulf is now retreating N as a
warm front, noted early this morning from SE Louisiana to the
upper Texas coast. Convection associated with this feature has
moved well inland. Elsewhere, a ridge over the western Atlantic
continues to influence the weather conditions in the Gulf of
Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico and southern Texas support fresh southerly
winds over much of the basin. These winds are sustaining seas of
3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight,
then stall from just N of Tampa Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Fri night. Strong S winds are expected ahead of this front into
tonight, mainly in the central Gulf. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf. Looking
ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early
Sun and move SE across the basin by Mon evening. Strong to near
gale force N winds will also follow this front in the western
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
read the Special Feature Section for details.
The basin remains under the dominion of a broad subtropical ridge
positioned over the central and western Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces fresh to
strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the
rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure
ridge across the western Atlantic along 28N and low pressure over
northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early
morning near the coast of NW Colombia through Thu night. Rough to
very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest
winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected
across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into
the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the
Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola.
Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu through
Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough
seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic
waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift
eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across
the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is sagging just S of 30N from 50W to 70W.
Otherwise, the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.
Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are present south of
25N and west of 55W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west
of 75W and north of 25N.

The subtropical ridge is also forcing fresh to strong NE-E trade
winds south of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Wave heights in these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found west of 50W and south
of 20N. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge persists along 28N-29N. Associated easterly swell will also
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu, when a cold front
will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W,
bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected
to move eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along 26N on
Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun night and reach from
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Mon afternoon.

$$
Konarik