588
AXNT20 KNHC 011007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a
subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern
South America and a passing tropical wave has resulted in an are
of gale-force winds offshore Colombia, along with very rough seas.
These winds and seas will decrease below gale force later this
morning, but increase again to near-gale force tonight into Wed
morning.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 10N and between 21W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 14N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is evident along the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N25W and to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N44W to 06N55W. Convection near these features is primarily
associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described in
the section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Deep tropical moisture and divergence flow aloft continues to
support scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the Mexican
coast north of Veracruz in the western Gulf. A weak surface trough
and land breeze features are also generating scattered moderate
convection within 120 nm of the Florida coast in the northeast
basin. Fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the SW Gulf,
with mainly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue across the
eastern Gulf through midweek, before a weak cold front sinks
southward across north Florida and adjacent Gulf waters Fri, and
is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf through Sat.

Low pressure could develop in Atlantic waters offshore the SE
U.S., over Florida, or in the eastern Gulf, along this stalled
front over the weekend, and some gradual tropical or subtropical
development could occur thereafter as the low is forecast to
remain nearly stationary. There is a low chance of tropical or
subtropical formation over the next seven days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Convection previously over western Cuba has diminished, and the
only convection remaining over the basin this morning is in the
far SW Caribbean along the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough along 10W, where scattered thunderstorms are
impacting waters offshore Panama and Colombia. Strong winds and
rough seas dominate the central and SW basin, with moderate to
fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse again to near gale-force
tonight into Wed morning. The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW
Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas
across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Wed, then
diminish N of 15N into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the East Atlantic. The remaining convection in the
basin resides over the NW Bahamas and waters to the N and W,
offshore Florida, and in the Florida Straits. These scattered
thunderstorms are being induced by an upper-level low that is
centered over the NW Bahamas.

Ridging generally dominates waters N of 24N across the basin. The
Bermuda high of 1023 mb centered near 20N64W is separated from the
Azores high by a weak surface trough that extends S of 31N around
50W and continues SW to near 27N58W. E of the trough axis to 50W,
moderate to fresh SW winds are present, otherwise to the W of 30W,
light to gentle winds dominate, with seas less than 5 ft. In the E
Atlantic beyond 30W, fresh to locally strong NE winds dominate
with seas of 6 to 10 ft. For tropical Atlantic waters S of 24W,
mainly moderate trades dominate with seas of 5 to 7 ft.


For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to
maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to
drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late
afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola until the end
of the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off
the SE U.S. coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall
there through Sat.

Low pressure could develop in Atlantic waters offshore the SE
U.S., over Florida, or in the eastern Gulf, along this stalled
front over the weekend, and some gradual tropical or subtropical
development could occur thereafter as the low is forecast to
remain nearly stationary. There is a low chance of tropical or
subtropical formation over the next seven days.

$$
Konarik