674
AXNT20 KNHC 061042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W S of
12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are depicted from 03N to 07N between 35W and 42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 05N41W to near 06N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
eastern Gulf, while a surface trough is analyzed from 22N89W to
18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the trough
and south of 20N. The pressure gradient in place is allowing for
light to gentle S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and for
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except for
fresh E to SE winds W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate seas
prevail across the basin.

Satellite imagery reveals that skies are hazy over the Florida
peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the presence of the Saharan
Air Layer (SAL).

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the
eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the
central Gulf through early next week. Moderate to fresh E to NE
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE
winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon
between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a weak high pressure over the
western Atlantic and lower pressures in the southern Caribbean
and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to strong trades
across the south central portion of the basin and the Gulf of
Honduras, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Rough
seas prevail over the central section of the basin, while moderate
seas are noted elsewhere. Satellite imagery reveals scattered to
numerous moderate convection S of 13N and west of 75W due to the
eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
NW of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into
the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next week. This
pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough
seas across most of the central basin and Gulf of Honduras through
this evening, diminish slightly on Sat, then increase across most
of the basin Sat night into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A stationary front extends from near 31N59W to 27N66W. Water
vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level trough that is over the
central Atlantic N of about 20N and between 53W and 57W. High
pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical
waters as a 1030 mb high center is well N of the area near
38N40W. The pressure gradient in place is supporting moderate to
fresh trades and moderate to rough seas over most of Atlantic S
of 20N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate with
moderate seas.

Satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak
of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of
the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak,
has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some
areas of the western Atlantic, including the Florida peninsula.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front SE of Bermuda
will drift northward and dissipate through tonight. Weak high
pressure NW of the front will shift NE and into the central
Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue.
Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening
offshore of Hispaniola early next week.

$$
ERA