298
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 73W/74W tropical wave is from Haiti southward, moving westward
05 knots to 10 knots. The environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for development. It is likely for a tropical depression
by the end of the week. The movement will be slowly westward,
into the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to
meander in the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend, and then
to begin to move slowly, generally northwestward, by early next
week. Anybody who has interests in the western Caribbean Sea
should monitor the progress of this weather feature. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium. Current precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward from 70W westward;
and from 09N to 13N between 60W and 70W.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) is contributing to the continued
potential for excessive rainfall in the southern sections of
Central America, until at least Thursday. The most significant
rainfall will affect western Costa Rica, and the southwestern
part of Panama. This information is provided by the Weather
Prediction Center`s International Desk meteorologists. Please,
refer to your country`s national weather bureau for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL...

A stationary front is along 31N31W 24N40W 20N50W 19N60W 20N64W
26N68W. A warm front continues from 26N68W, to a 1010 mb 32N72W
low pressure center. A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb
low pressure center, to the NW Bahamas, through Cuba along 80W, to
a Caribbean Sea 1008 mb low pressure center that is close to
18N84W. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or
less, and rough to very rough seas, from 15N northward between 35W
and 73W. A second front will enter the Atlantic Ocean in 24 hours
or so. Expect strong winds and rough seas. The conditions at 48
hours are supposed to consist of strong to near gale-force winds,
and rough to very rough seas, at least from 30N northward between
56W and 63W. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Currently: fresh to strong southerly winds, and mostly moderate
6 feet to 7 feet seas, are from 27N northward between 65W and
71W. Mostly moderate to some strong NE winds are within 280 nm to
the north of the stationary front between 34W and 62W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from Haiti
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Please, refer to
the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
close to 10N14W, to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W, to
08N26W 06N28W 06N38W. A surface trough is along 06N40W 01N44W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 05N to 07N
between 35W and 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is off the SE coast of Louisiana.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 89W. A surface trough is
from the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend, to the 1010 mb
low pressure center, to the 1008 mb low pressure center, to the
western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is in the water vapor imagery from 26N northward.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 25N southward
from 86W westward. Rainshowers are possible between 85W and 95W,
and in the Straits of Florida. Moderate seas are from the north
central Gulf, to the central Gulf, toward the SW corner of the
area. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh SE winds are from 25N northward between 85W and the
north-to-south oriented trough. Strong N to NE winds are from 28N
northward between 86W and 90W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure, remnants of Rafael, will meander
over the central Gulf through this evening before moving to the NW
basin and dissipating Wed. The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge building over the eastern United States and the low will
support the development of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the eastern half of the basin tonight through Thu, reaching strong
speeds in the NE Gulf and the Straits of Florida Wed and Wed
night. A weak cold front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu and exit
the NE basin Thu night. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and slight
to moderate seas will dominate the basin the remainder forecast
period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
moderate chance for a tropical wave to develop into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Read about the potential for
heavy rainfall in Costa Rica and in Panama, also.

A surface trough passes through the NW Bahamas, through Cuba
along 80W, to a Caribbean Sea 1008 mb low pressure center that is
close to 18N84W.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds surround the 73W/74W tropical wave.
Moderate cyclonic wind flow surrounds the 18N84W low pressure
center. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are from Puerto Rico
eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 12/1200 UTC, are: 0.14 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.04 in
Curacao, in Guadeloupe, and in Trinidad. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the central Caribbean,
including Hispaniola, as a tropical wave moves across the region
through today. A low pressure over the SW Caribbean will move to
the offshore waters of NE Nicaragua and E Honduras Wed night into
Thu and enhance NE winds in the Lee of Cuba to fresh to strong
speeds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will spread over the
remainder NW Caribbean by late Thu while moderate to fresh SW
winds develop over the SW basin. The low is forecast to deepen by
Fri evening, resulting in fresh to strong winds and rough seas
over the NW and SW Caribbean through Sun night. There is a medium
chance for this system to become a tropical depression late this
week. Otherwise, large N swell associated with a stationary front
NE of Puerto Rico will continue to impact the NE Caribbean
Passages and the Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Significant Swell that is in the Atlantic Ocean. Multiple cold
fronts will enter the area during the next 48 hours or so. Expect
strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas at
48 hours, from 30N northward between 56W and 63W.

Fresh to strong SE winds are from 15N southward between 56W and
61W. Moderate NE winds are from 05N and the ITCZ to 17N between
30W and 56W. Mostly moderate to some strong NE winds are from 19N
northward from 25W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 12/1200 UTC, are: 0.13 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in
Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and rough seas will continue to
affect the offshore waters E of the Bahamas as a stationary front
extends from 19N60W to low pres near 31N72W, 1010 mb. Seas
associated with this front will gradually subside starting this
evening. The next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters
this evening, from 31N55W to the Virgin Islands Wed evening, then
move E of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to strong N to NW winds
and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area
through Thu. A third front may enter the NW offshore waters Thu
night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 27N with mainly
moderate to fresh winds through the weekend.

$$
mt/era