964
AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W west of the Cabo
Verde Islands from 22N southward. The wave is moving westward
around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W,
from 21N southward through AL99 to French Guiana, moving west at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to
16N between 57W and 61W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is
analyzed along 82W from 19N southward. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 13N to 18N west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W
then to AL99 near 13N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 15N east of 22W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
northern Gulf waters north of 22N. A surface trough has been
analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche, and moderate to fresh
N to NE winds are noted in the eastern bay and north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds
prevail, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front will linger along the
northern Gulf likely through midweek generating numerous showers
and thunderstorms mainly N of 25N. A weak low may develop along
the frontal boundary by late Tue into Wed. A weak ridge will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf region supporting
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon
through at least the middle of week as a trough develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to moderate
seas are expected with these winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections above.

Strong to locally near-gale force winds are occurring in the Gulf
of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia as a strengthening
pressure gradient develops between a 1009 mb low over northern
Colombia and high pressure to the north. Locally rough seas to 8
ft are occurring offshore of Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to strong
NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, ahead of a tropical
wave moving through the western Caribbean. In the eastern basin,
an approaching tropical wave is leading to fresh to strong NE
winds, including through the Atlantic Passages. Rough seas of 8 to
10 ft are noted near this wave. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the system located near the Windward Islands does
not have a closed low-level circulation. However, the system is
still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and
winds to near gale force, and these conditions are expected to
affect the Windward and Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. The
system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday,
where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
additional development. This system associated with a tropical
wave will bring increasing winds and building seas across the east
and central Caribbean tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong E to
SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Tue night. NW to N swell will continue to propagate across
the tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic
Passages through at least Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Rough seas of 10-14 ft and strong to near-gale force winds are
noted south of the center of Tropical Storm Fernand, centered
north of the area near 31.8N 59.8W. Residual northerly swell
from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin continue to affect parts
of the central Atlantic. Widespread 8-11 ft seas, with a period
of 15-17 seconds, is north of 25N between 30W and 65W. While
significant wave heights elsewhere in open waters have diminished
to 4-7 ft, wave periods remain long at 13 seconds or greater. In
the eastern Atlantic, swell periods are near 20 seconds. Moderate
or weaker trades prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernand is near 31.8N 59.8W at 5
PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Fernand will move to 33.2N 58.9W Mon morning,
35.1N 57.6W Mon afternoon, 37.6N 55.7W Tue morning, 40.0N 53.0W
Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 43.0N 49.0W Wed
morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. As Fernand continues to
moves away from the forecast area, a ridge will build back across
most of the region. A frontal boundary will linger off the SE U.S.
coast likely through Wed with fresh to locally strong winds SE of
it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late Mon
afternoon through Tue night. Meanwhile, large northerly swell
generated by distant extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to
affect the W Atlantic waters through the next couple of days.

$$
ADAMS