772
AXNT20 KNHC 311046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is sustaining
strong to gale force NE-E winds across the south-central
Caribbean. Winds will diminish below gale-force late this morning.
These winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning
offshore of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to
build to around 14 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will progress
southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico today and on Sat. Winds
will briefly reach gale force in the southwestern Gulf offshore
of Veracruz this evening, with strong winds occurring through
early Sat. Locally very rough seas will accompany these winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Robust ridge in the far NE Atlantic forces
strong to gale force N winds in the Meteo France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for North 8 in the
Beaufort wind scale, with severe gusts, but mainly in the far E of
the above mentioned marine zones. Mariners can expect rough to
very rough seas in these waters. This forecast is valid until
01/0000 UTC.

Please refer to the website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues west-southwestward to 04N15W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 05N and between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information regarding
a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of
Veracruz.

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to 22N98W in northern
Mexico. A few showers are seen ahead of the frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between lower pressures in Mexico and the
subtropical ridge centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda
result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds between 85W and
93W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas
occurring north of Yucatan. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and
moderate seas are found in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will
occur across the central and eastern Gulf this morning as the
pressure gradient strengthens between a cold front moving through
the NW Gulf and building high pressure over the western Atlantic.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the central Gulf. Winds will
turn to the NW to NE behind the aforementioned cold front, with
fresh to locally strong winds possible today as the front moves
southeastward. Winds will briefly reach gale force in the
southwestern Gulf offshore of Veracruz this evening, with strong
winds occurring through early Sat. Locally very rough seas will
accompany these winds. The front will stall then dissipate this
weekend, and ridging will build over the basin, supporting gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this
weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information regarding
a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Gale force winds are occurring offshore of Colombia with
associated seas to 14 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted
across the basin, with strong winds occurring through the Gulf of
Honduras, in the lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage and
downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to rough seas are noted across
the region, with the highest seas occurring in the south-central
Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing gale force winds will occur offshore of
Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week
as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Widespread
moderate to fresh trades are expected across much of the
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to strong speeds across the central
basin, through the Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola and in
the lee of Cuba. Rough seas will occur across the central and
southwestern Caribbean, with localized very rough seas near the
strongest winds. Elsewhere, residual E swell in the tropical
Atlantic waters will combine with a new N swell this weekend,
promoting locally rough seas east of the Windward and Leeward
Islands and their passages into the Caribbean through the middle
of next week. Moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of
the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the northern forecast waters south of
Bermuda and another front extending from 31N47W to 25N56W,
followed by a surface trough to eastern Cuba. A few showers are
noted near these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic,
west of 55W, is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered
between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda. Fresh to strong easterly trade
winds are occurring south of 25N and west of 55W. The strongest
winds are found at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in
the area described are 5-8 ft. Northerly swell is producing rough
seas north of 28N and between 50W and 68W. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
1036 mb high pressure system between the Azores and Madeira
Islands. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to near
gale-force N-NE winds south of a line from 31N29W to 20N50W and
east of 50W. These winds are sustaining rough to very rough seas,
with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands
and between the Canary Islands and Morocco. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N
and between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support increasing moderate to fresh E to NE winds
and building seas north of 20N today. A tightening pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and low pressure moving
eastward through the United States will lead to fresh to strong S
to SW winds offshore of Florida, generally north of 28N and west
of 65W, this afternoon through Sat morning. Winds will diminish by
Sat afternoon in this region as the low moves offshore and lifts
to the northeast. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough
seas will continue south of 22N through the beginning of next
week. Looking ahead, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are forecast for the waters north of 22N for Sun into early next
week.


$$
ADAMS