019
AXNT20 KNHC 300431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall: Clusters of showers and thunderstorm
continue in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
located along 59W-60W, moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite
imagery tonight shows strong SW upper level wind shear continuing
to impact this system, with the remnants of the low level center
exposed to the west of most of the convection, and approaching the
island of Barbuda at this time. A well defined middle level
cyclonic circulation is farther east along 57W, and has spawned an
area of scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection from 17N to 20.5N between 55.5W and 60W. Recent
satellite scatterometer data suggests that there are no signs that
the system is developing a closed circulation, but rather remains
a sharp trough. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it
moves westward to west-northwestward around 20 kt. The wave is
expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the
adjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and
the location of the highest totals will vary from island to
island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and
support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather
agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W-37W, south of 17N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 59W-60W, south of 21N, moving westward
around 20 kt. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas
are noted from 15N to 23N between 54W and 64W. See the Special
Features section above for more information on this wave.

A tropical wave is along 73W and extends from Dominican Republic
to eastern Colombia, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring behind the wave
across interior portions of Venezuela, while no significant
convection is noted over water.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south
of 15N, moving westward at 5 kt. The wave appears to be
reorganizing while interacting with the monsoon trough in this
area. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over
portions of Central America and adjacent tropical eastern Pacific
waters from 04N to 10N between 78W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W, and extends S-SW to near 10N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N25W to 11N35W, then resumes from 08N40W to
06N49W to 11.5N59W. In addition to the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 13.5N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 40W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring near a weak 1014 mb
low pressure center over the N central Gulf near 28.5N88W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere dotting the
eastern Gulf waters E of 87W. A middle level trough and upper
level diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity.
A weak 1016 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W, and
dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle
to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring across the east
and central Bay of Campeche, ahead of the typical thermal trough
over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, weak low pressure in the northern Gulf is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 90W.
Some slow development of this low is possible during the next few
days as it drifts westward, although there is a low chance of
tropical formation over the next seven days. Regardless of
development, mariners over the northeast and north-central Gulf
should expect active thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally
higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas
into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal
surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated with a strong tropical wave that will
cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Sun.

Atlantic high pressure continues a broad ridge along 35N extending
westward to near 70W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
a 1007 mb Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades offshore
Colombia to 15N where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere across the
north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Squalls and showers
ahead of the remnants of Dolly are moving across northern Leeward
Islands and into the adjacent Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern
Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun
and Sun night, and Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to
locally near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall across the islands and adjacent waters.
Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressure over South America will support
strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this
weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as
the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is
approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Abundant low level moisture continues to shift northwestward
across the Bahamas and waters to the E and NE, and is interacting
with a middle level trough extending from the eastern Gulf of
America northeastward into the Atlantic. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring across the Bahamas N of 24N, between
70W and 80W, producing areas of strong gusty winds. The Atlantic
ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters,
anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near
35N32W and extends a ridge westward along 35W to 70W. South of the
ridge, fresh to strong winds associated with the remnants of
Dolly prevail across the area S of 25N between 53W aND 67W.
Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail S of 24N between 25W and 45W, while fresh NE winds
are noted from 10N to 16N between 45W and 52W. Farther east, fresh
to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
evident N of 20N and E of 20N to the coast of W Africa, including
the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports
moderate to locally fresh winds easterly winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross
the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola on Mon. This wave
will bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas,
and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to these
islands and nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical
moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered
thunderstorms W of 70W into early next week. To the east, the
subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong
off northern Hispaniola through Sun night.

$$
Stripling