297
AXNT20 KNHC 212056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large swell associated with Hurricane Erin:
Hurricane Erin is centered near 36.4N 69.1W at 21/2100 UTC or 320
nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas over 12 ft
generated from Erin cover the discussion waters N of 28N between
64W and 77W, peaking at 20 ft near 31N69W. Erin will move on a
northeastward to east-northeastward track over the next several
days. With this track, the area of 12 ft seas generated from Erin
will shift eastward across the waters N of 30N through the
weekend before shifting NE of the area early next week.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 13N to 21N between 54W and 61W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 2 days and a high chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have changed little in organization since earlier today. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection in noted from 06N to 13N
between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. This system has a medium chance of formation
for the next 2 to 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 and AL99 at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on two Atlantic
tropical waves.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76.5W
extending from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 13N between 77W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends to
09N40W. Aside from convection noted in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 10N to 167 between the coast of Africa and 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern over the area is maintaining light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the
area through the period maintaining quiet marine conditions.
Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds will be possible
over the south-central Gulf each afternoon and evening through
this weekend as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and
moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge building south
of Hurricane Erin in the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds, and
seas of 6 to 8 ft, in the south central Caribbean. Moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle winds, and
seas of 1-3 ft, prevail over the waters W of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas seas
will exist over the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri as a
strengthening pressure gradient develops between low pressure
over Colombia and building high pressure in the wake of Hurricane
Erin in the west Atlantic. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. An area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Invest Areas AL90 and AL99.

Hurricane Erin is centered near 36.4N 69.1W at 21/2100 UTC or
320 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving NE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Fresh to near-gale
cyclonic winds around Erin prevail over the discussion waters
north of 28N between 64W and 75W. Aside from the area of 12 ft
seas discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, seas 8 ft
or greater are covering the discussion waters N of 26N and W of
66W. Ridging is building back across the SW N Atlantic waters.
Outside of the influence of Hurricane Erin, gentle to moderate
winds prevail, reaching locally moderate in the vicinity of AL90
and AL99. Seas are generally in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, Erin is centered N of the area and continues to
move NNE away from the region. Despite its distance, long period
northerly swells generated by Erin will continue to affect the W
Atlantic waters through the next few days. In the wake of Erin,
central Atlantic high pressure will build WSW toward the central
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the period. An area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands this weekend and into early next week.

$$
AL