050
AXNT20 KNHC 221004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale
Warning along with rough to very rough seas for their AGADIR
Marine Zone through 23/0000 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo- France at website:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to near 00N30W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along both features S of 05N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convection previously in the northern Gulf waters has lifted
northward into the U.S., and the basin is now dry this morning, as
the region is under the influence of a subtropical ridge that is
centered off the coast of the SE U.S. Moderate to fresh E winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft are found in the SE and south-central Gulf,
with light to gentle winds and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will bring
mainly moderate SE winds and relatively tranquil marine conditions
to the basin through the week. One exception is off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds are expected
nightly as a diurnal trough moves into the waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging to the north and
tropical low pressure closer to the equator is forcing fresh to
locally strong trades over the central Caribbean as well as south
of the Greater Antilles and adjacent passages. Seas in these areas
are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, moderate to
fresh E winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. In the eastern
basin, mainly gentle NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support
pulsing fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western
Caribbean into tonight. The high will then shift eastward which
will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds through late
week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada
passages will gradually subside today. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning issued in the far eastern Atlantic.

A weak cold front has sagged southward into northward waters and
extends from 31N55W to 27N72W. This front will stall today, then
dissipate from west to east into Wed, having little sensible
impact on marine conditions. South of this front, a persistent
surface trough stretches from 29N58W to 15N57W. Along and E of the
trough, extending to 42W, scattered moderate convection is being
induced by the feature, along with fresh to locally strong SE
winds and rough seas. To the west of the trough, aided by a tight
pressure gradient from high pressure building along the eastern
seaboard of the United States, fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas prevail N of 25N and W of 70W. Still farther W, areas N of
25N closer to the surface high are experiencing gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas, where waters S of 25N have fresh NE to E
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, including the Greater Antilles and
adjacent passages.

Across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a 1027 mb high
pressure centered S of the Azores is dominating, allowing for a
moderate to fresh tradewind regime to prevail, with seas of 5 to 7
ft. E of 35W and N of the Cabo Verde Islands, Seas of 8 to 10 ft
are occurring in NE swell generated from higher winds NE of the
area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
weak cold front in the NE waters and high pressure centered NW of
Bermuda will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas over Atlantic waters E of 70W, as well as S of 25W,
including the Bahamas and Greater Antilles, through midweek. These
features will gradually dissipate late this week, loosening the
pressure gradient and leading to improving marine conditions for
the end of the week.

$$
Konarik