539
AXNT20 KNHC 100538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is moving over the Gulf waters, extending from
30N85W to 22N98W. The front will continue to move quickly SE
through the basin and exit by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-
force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the
front, with gale force winds and very rough seas over the SW Bay
of Campeche beginning at 0600 UTC tonight and prevailing through
Mon night. Otherwise, there is a potential for gusts to gale force
winds over the northern and western Gulf through Mon morning, and
over the central, southern and eastern basin through late Mon
night. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending over
the southeastern United States will emerge in the western
Atlantic tonight. NW gales and very rough seas are expected N of
29N Mon night through Tue behind the front, with locations to the
south having strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas after
the front passes. The front will move SE and reach from Bermuda
to eastern Cuba Tue, then extend from 31N55W to The Turks and
Caicos by Wed. As the front weakens and stalls by the middle of
the week, winds and seas will gradually diminish.

For more information about these warnings, please see the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form early on Mon over the NW Caribbean
Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south on
Monday, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced
moisture convergence. A cold front will then arrive in Guatemala,
Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will
become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday.
Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be
possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was
provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction
Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to near 07N36W. The ITCZ then extends from that
point to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
04N to 14N and E of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional information
on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring over the northern
and northwestern Gulf along and behind the cold front. Moderate N
to NW winds are noted over the rest of the basin. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Bay of
Campeche, mainly S of 10N. Rough seas are noted north of the
front, with slight seas occurring elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will race southeast tonight and
exit the basin Mon. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas can be expected behind the front, with
gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon
morning into Mon night. Gales are also anticipated tonight
offshore Tampico. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue
evening as high pressure settle southward into the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the significant
rainfall event expected across Central America and adjacent waters
this week.

The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting
scattered moderate convection, across the offshore waters of
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A surface trough
extends over western Hispaniola into the central Caribbean near
15N74W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
near this trough. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge extending across
the basin continues to tighten the gradient across the eastern and
central Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh
trades and moderate seas in these regions. Strong winds have
developed offshore of northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW basin
with slight seas.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas are expected in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough seas in east
swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will gradually subside through Mon night. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean waters on Mon, bringing strong
to near-gale force N winds and rough seas in its wake. The front
will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue and gradually
weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the strong winds and seas,
the front will support the development of heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through at
least Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the W Atlantic beginning on Mon night.

A surface trough extends from 31N78W southwestward through
central Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing
along the trough, mainly W of 75W. To the east, The surface trough
over W Hispaniola also extends over the southern Bahamas,
inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms S of 22N
between 69W-72W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of the Azores High that is anchored by a pair
of 1028 mb highs N of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
dominate the open Atlantic waters. A long-period NW swell is
supporting rough seas N of 17N and E of 50W. Farther south, rough
seas in E swell prevails east of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the areal extent of strong SW winds
offshore NE Florida will increase in the next couple of hours,
ahead of a strong cold front that will push off the SE U.S. late
tonight. The front will move SE and reach from Bermuda to eastern
Cuba Tue, then extend from 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos by Wed.
NW gales and very rough seas are expected N of 29N Mon night
through late Tue behind the front, with locations to the south
having strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas after the
front passes. As the front weakens and stalls by the middle of the
week, winds and seas will gradually diminish.

$$
ERA