261
AXNT20 KNHC 112121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are occurring around
550 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will
likely form during the latter half of this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 02N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 14N between 30W and 40W. Please read the Special Features
section above for more information about this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53.5W from 02N to 18N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N
to 12N between 53W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W S of 23N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are noted over portions of
Puerto Rico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W S of 21N, moving west at
15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from
14N to 20N between 83W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues
southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,
scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021
mb high in the NE Gulf. Light winds and slight seas are in the
vicinity of the high. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
locally moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the Gulf
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will be in control of the general
wind flow pattern across the basin through the period allowing
for mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds to prevail across the
basin, with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche
each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean. Rough seas cover these waters. Gentle to
moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of
the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades are over the central
Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern
South America. The ridge will gradually shift southward to near
26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in
coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early Sat.
A strong tropical wave, or low pressure is expected to cross the
Lesser Antilles eastern late Sat night and move across the eastern
Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near-
gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each
night, except Wed night. There is some potential for winds to
reach gale force offshore Colombia Fri night. Winds will pulse up
to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the
Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27N52W. Light to gentle winds
generally prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 30W, with
slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S
of 23N and west of 30W, with moderate seas. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds, and moderate seas, cover the remaining discussion
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 28N
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu and change
little into the weekend. The gradient will tighten over the
southern portion leading to an increase of the trades from the
Bahamas eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in
the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing
to strong speeds each night. Of note, disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are present well
east of the forecast waters over the far eastern Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression will likely form during the latter half of this week
while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.

$$
AL