319
AXNT20 KNHC 111016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 14N to 17N and between 25W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 11N to 15N and between 53W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and then continues southwestward to
13N35W and then to 12N53W. The ITCZ extends from 12N56W to 11N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 18N and east
of 22W. Similar convection is noted from 05N to 11N and between
36W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to
offshore Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm either side of the frontal boundary. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also ongoing in the bay
of Campeche where a pair of surface troughs reside. N of the front
in the NE Gulf, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are
present, with gentle east winds elsewhere N of the front. Seas N
of the front are 2 to 4 ft. South of the front, winds are mainly
light and variable, with seas less than 2 ft, except in the Bay of
Campeche where gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will evolve into a
cold front today and sag SW through the basin through Fri. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are
expected N of the front while mainly gentle winds and slight seas
will prevail S of the front. Fresh winds may pulse the next few
evenings offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal
trough moves into the Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is drifting west, centered offshore NE Honduras
early this morning, promoting scattered moderate convection in the
Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean waters.  At the
surface, broad ridging positioned north of the islands and lower
pressures over northern South America continue to force fresh to
strong easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally rough seas are occurring in these waters. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found off northern Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate easterly winds and seas of
3-5 ft are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will lead to fresh to locally strong
winds in the south central Caribbean through tonight, along with
moderate to locally rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds
with slight to moderate seas are expected through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is beginning to move SE as a cold front and
extends early this morning from around 31N75W to Port Saint Lucie,
Florida. Convection associated with the front has diminished
diurnally. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are present behind
the frontal boundary. Farther east, a surface trough is along
66W, producing scattered moderate to strong convection from 21N to
25N between 61W and 68W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic,
west of 60W, is under the influence of a weak pressure gradient
that result in moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a surface trough is along
51W and north of 21N. The interaction of this feature with an
upper level low supports scattered moderate convection north of
23N and between 45W and 57W. The rest of the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system
centered west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the monsoon trough sustain moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 17N and between 20W and 50W.
Moderate winds and seas are occurring south of 20N and west of
50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move SE through
Sat, then stall for the remainder of the weekend from near
Bermuda through the Bahamas. The front will continue to bring
showers and thunderstorms to waters near Florida and the Bahamas
into the weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas are expected N of the front through Sat. Ahead of the front,
the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast region this week, producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow and mostly moderate seas.

$$
Konarik