017
AXNT20 KNHC 102232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extending from Key Largo, Florida to Cancun,
Mexico will move southeast of the Gulf this evening. Strong to
near gale-force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas follow
the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of
Veracruz into tonight. Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue
evening as high pressure settle southward into the region.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front
that extends from near 31N75W to Key Largo, Florida. Gale
conditions will develop tonight offshore of northeast Florida. As
the front moves east, these gales will expand behind the front,
mainly north of 29N, through Tue. Elsewhere behind the front,
strong to near gale force N winds will dominate through Tue night,
along with rough to very rough seas. By late Wed, the front will
stall front near 30N55W to the Turks and Caicos, where it will
weaken through late week. As a result, winds and seas will slowly
diminish.

For more information about these warnings, please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form today over the NW Caribbean Sea
and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south
today, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tue morning, resulting in enhanced
moisture convergence. A cold front will then arrive in Guatemala,
Honduras, and Belize on Tue morning, after which it will become
stationary and linger across the region through Thu. Significant
rainfall over the course of several days will be possible as a
result, and will raise concerns for life- threatening flash
flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 14N16W and continues
southwestward to near 05N23W then to 05N25W. The ITCZ then
extends from that point to 06N35W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 10N to 15N, 15W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for additional information
on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

Strong N winds and rough seas follow a cold front reaching from
Key Largo, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed 40 kt winds off Veracruz, Mexico and
mostly 25 to 30 kt winds elsewhere. Seas are 10 to 13 ft over the
southwest Gulf, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will move southeast of the basin this
evening. Near-gale force N winds and rough to very rough seas
will dominate tonight, then gradually diminish Tue as high
pressure settles into the NE basin. Gales will prevail through
this evening offshore Veracruz, Mexico. For the latter half of the
week, fairly benign marine conditions are anticipated, but
southerly return flow east of the high pressure may bring fresh to
strong winds to the NW Gulf by this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the significant rainfall event expected across Central America
and adjacent waters this week.

The interaction between the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon
Trough and a surface trough continues to support numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection over much of the western Caribbean
west of 75W. Moderate to fresh N winds are starting to move into
the Yucatan Channel ahead of the approaching cold front. Fresh to
strong trade winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted over the south-
central Caribbean, with moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere,
except for 1 to 3 ft south of Cuba.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Rough seas in
east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
front moving through the Yucatan Channel this afternoon will stall
Tue from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras, then weaken and
gradually dissipate for the latter half of the week. Behind the
front, strong to near gale force N winds and rough to very rough
seas can be expected. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the
front will support the development of heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through at
least Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic beginning tonight.

Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front
that extends from near 31N75W to key Largo, Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is found ahead of the front along a pre-
frontal trough that extends from 28N69W to the southern Bahamas. The
remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad ridge that is anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N51W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the
open Atlantic waters south of 25N. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and long-
period NW swell is supporting rough seas to 9 ft over the eastern
subtropical and tropical Atlantic as well as portions of the
central tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front that extends
from 31N75W to the Florida Straits this afternoon will move east
through Tue night, then stall over the SE waters into late this
week. Gales will develop behind the front N of 29N this evening,
then spread east and prevail through Tue, along with very rough
seas. S of 29N, strong N winds and rough to very rough seas will
dominate. As the front stalls and weakens, winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh Wed, but rough seas in N swell will continue for
waters E of 65W through Thu.

$$
Christensen