799
AXNT20 KNHC 050559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0552 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 25.0N  49.8W at 05/0300Z
or 8500 NM ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas of 12
ft or greater are occurring within 390 NM in the NE quadrant,
330 NM in the SE quadrant, 360 NM in the SW quadrant and 360 NM
in the NW quadrant with peak seas to 44 ft. Strong convection is
occurring within 60 NM to the south, west and north of the
center, and within 90 NM to the east of the center. Moderate to
locally strong convection is noted within 240 NM of the center.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight. Kirk is
expected to turn to the north on Saturday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion Sunday and Monday. Kirk is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small
intensity fluctuations are possible overnight, but steady
weakening should begin on Saturday. Swell generated by Kirk are
spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands
this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the
east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the
Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Recently upgraded Hurricane Leslie is centered near 10.4N  34.2W
at 05/0300Z or 630 NM WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde
Islands, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to
80 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are occurring within 90 NM in the
northern semicircle and within 60 NM in the southern semicircle
with peak seas near 16 ft. Strong convection is occurring within
60 NM to the north and east of the center, and within 90 NM to
the south and west of the center. Leslie WNW motion is expected
to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an
increase in forward speed are expected by Saturday evening or
Sunday. Gradual strengthening is forecast through Sunday
followed by gradual weakening on Monday.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92): Recent satellite-derived wind data
indicate that an area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and ill defined, but it is
producing winds just below gale force. Development of this
system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or
storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida
Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
Formation chance through 48 hours is medium.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory
and Public Advisory and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends
southwestward to 10N27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 11N to 15N between 21W and 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information about AL92.

A 1013 mb low is centered near 27N97W and troughing extends
northeastward from the low and parallels the northern Gulf Coast.
A second 1009 mb low (AL92) is analyzed near 22N95.5W, and a
trough extends southward through the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted north of 25.5 west of 92W.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 20N to 23N
west of 95W in association to AL92. Another surface trough is
depicted over the eastern Gulf and is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the offshore Florida waters including
the Florida Straits. Recent scatterometer data depicted strong
to near gale-force winds just offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas
in this area are 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhre, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds prevail with seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas are active
near numerous showers and thunderstorms persisting over portions
of the SW Gulf, near a broad area of low pressure. This pattern
will maintain fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Veracruz
through at least Sat. The low pressure may continue to develop
over the next several days, supporting moderate to fresh winds
across the northern and western Gulf through Sat night. Looking
ahead, the low pressure may develop further as moves eastward or
northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a
frontal boundary moving into the northern Gulf. The low may
develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm late
this weekend or early next week as it moves into the eastern
Gulf. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building
seas are forecast including behind the frontal boundary and near
the low with thunderstorms increasing in activity and
potentially impacting most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and just
south of the Yucatan Channel in association with a surface
trough. Moderate SE winds are observed offshore of Honduras,
with mainly gentle NE to E winds occurring elsewhere. Seas
across the basin are 2 to 3 ft, except for the NW Caribbean
where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
persist in the far NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel through
at least Sat. Hurricane Kirk will remain well to the northeast
of the Leeward Islands, but large swell generated from Kirk will
impact the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands through
Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next
week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the far
NW Caribbean late in the weekend into early next week due to the
possible development of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Major Hurricane
Kirk and recently upgraded Hurricane Leslie.

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N57W and extends
southwestward to 25N67W. Isolated moderate convection is
depicted along the trough, north of 30N. A 1008 mb low centered
near 31.5N61W is generating seas in excess of 8 ft north of 26N
between 60W and 71W. E swell from Kirk are propagating westward
towards the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and
Turks and Caicos. Seas in excess of 8 ft associated with Kirk
are north of 17N between 40W and 62W. In the remaining areas of
the tropical Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 4-
7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N57W to
25N68W followed by moderate to fresh winds. The front will
gradually weaken through the weekend as it sinks S. Meanwhile
Major Hurricane Kirk will remain E the region as it move into
the north-central Atlantic through Sat night. Very large swells
generated by Kirk will mix with swell following the front,
producing rough seas over the waters E of 75W into early next
week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off northeast
Florida and north of the Bahamas Tue and Wed associated with a
frontal moving into the region and developing low pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, large NE swell may impact the
waters southeast of Bermuda Tue and Wed, while swells associated
with tropical cyclone Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area,
may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week.

$$
KRV