366
AXNT20 KNHC 040413
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0335 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
25W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed near the southern portion of the
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N24W and then from 04N26W to
02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and
between 16W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between an upper level trough, surface trough and
plenty of tropical moisture result in numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf of America, with
the strongest convection occurring near the Florida Keys. Mariners in the
area can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas.
Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere.

A weak ridge over the eastern United States extends southwestward
into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE-S
winds in the NE and SE Gulf. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft
(0.5-1 m). Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and slight to
moderate seas are found in the Bay of Campeche and NW Gulf.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas
across the western and south- central Gulf through Fri between a
trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the
Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft, diurnal heating and abundant tropical moisture
support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W in
the Caribbean Sea. The remainder of the basin is under a plume of
Saharan dust that suppresses thunderstorm development.

An extensive 1033 mb subtropical ridge centered near 39N38W
extends southwestward into the Caribbean waters, supporting a
tight pressure gradient. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central and
western Caribbean, including at the entrance of the Windward
Passage and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 8-10
ft (2.5-3 m). Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas
will continue across most of the Caribbean into late week, then
diminish slightly at the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 30N78W, while a surface trough
is located north of NW Bahamas. Divergence aloft and plenty of
tropical moisture support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 24N and west of 75W. Latest satellite-
derived winds data indicate that fresh to strong easterly trade
winds are found south of 25N and west of 70W, with the strongest
winds occurring at the entrance of the Windward Passage.
Moderate seas are occurring in the area described. Moderate SE
winds and moderate seas are present north of 25N and west of
75W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the
extensive subtropical ridge positioned to the west of the Azores.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 55W and 70W.
Similar winds and seas are noted between 35W and 55W. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds and seas of 7-10 ft (2-3 m) are observed north
of 16N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move SE of Bermuda
tonight, then drift E across the NE waters through late this
week. A surface trough along the SE U.S. coast will bring showers
and thunderstorms offshore Florida over the next couple of days.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate. A tight pressure gradient
will lead to fresh to strong winds pulsing nightly offshore
Hispaniola through Fri.

$$
Delgado