319
AXNT20 KNHC 061030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1010 mb low near
09N34W, is associated with a low-latitude tropical wave along 34W,
and continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and showers, from 06N to 13.5N between 32W and 38W. Peak winds to
25 kt and seas to 8 ft are found within 180 nm north of the low.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic,
approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next
48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W from 20N southward, moving west at 5
to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis along
61W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 11N to 16.5N between 60W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 18.5N16W and
continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure located near
09N34W (AL95), to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N37W to
08N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 04.5N to 09N between 10W and 25W, and from 04N to
11N between 42W and 57W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists along the Gulf coast from the Florida
Panhandle to 1011 mb low pressure across S central Louisiana,
where a trough continues southwestward to offshore of SE Texas.
Isolated moderate convection dots the coastal waters south of
these features. A second surface trough extends from the Mexican
coast near Veracruz to 24N93W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along this trough. An upper level trough extends from
the western Bay of Campeche northeastward into the central Gulf.
This upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate
convection across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula that extends
northward and offshore to 24N and covers the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are slowly diminishing
over the NE Gulf, particularly N of 28N. Seas are subsiding to 4
to 6 ft within this winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail, except for light E to SE winds
north of western Cuba to 26N.

For the forecast, elongated low pressure across the NW Gulf and a
stationary front across the north-central Gulf coast will drift
northward and inland today. High pressure across the eastern U.S.
will then build modestly across the Gulf basin late Mon throughout
the week, leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas through late Tue, then becoming moderate NE to E
winds through the remainder of the week. Expect occasional locally
fresh winds in the northeastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the medium range forecast for Invest AL95.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
moderate NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh winds near the coast, and fresh to locally strong SW winds over
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trade winds prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are within these winds. Higher
seas of 5 to 8 ft in N swell are noted across the NE Caribbean
passages, including the Mona and Anegada Passages, and waters in
the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. An upper level trough extends from
the western Bay of Campeche northeastward into the central Gulf of
America, and is supporting scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection across the NW Caribbean extending northward
through the Yucatan Channel. Another upper-level low is seen over
the eastern part of the basin centered just SW of the Mona
Passage. This feature is helping to induce scattered moderate convection
over the eastern part of the Caribbean, between a tropical wave
over the Lesser Antilles and 67W.

For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the tropical
Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will gradually
subside through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to locally
strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain active across the northwestern Caribbean
through Tue night. A broad area of low pressure associated with a
tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central
tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by
the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect an
increase in winds and seas across the tropical Atlantic waters
with this system by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N42W and
extends west-southwestward to 28N55W to 23N67W then across the NW Bahamas
to a weak 1013 mb low pressure center along the Florida coast near
Delray Beach. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the frontal boundary, and also extends southward across the
central Bahamas. 1028 mb high pressure is centered offshore of New
Jersey, and is inducing a tight pressure gradient north of the
front. Fresh to strong easterly winds are N of the frontal
boundary and W of 55W, with seas 8 to 12 ft in lingering NE swell.
Farther east, a 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed midway between
the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between
this system and a surface trough over NW Africa supports fresh to
locally strong NE winds between the Canary Islands, and offshore
Western Sahara. These winds also cover the waters from 18N to 25N
E of 25W to the coast of W Africa. Rough seas to 9 ft are within
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere across
the tropical Atlantic between 25W and 55W. Slowly fading northerly
swell continues to dominate the basin waters this morning, with
moderate to rough seas of 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell across
the regional waters will gradually subside from north to south
over the west and central Atlantic through Tue night. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front,
extending from the central Atlantic near 28N55W through the NW
Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast, through late Tue before winds
diminish midweek as the front drifts northward and dissipates. A
broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the
latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect an
increase in winds and seas over the SE waters, north trough east
of the Leeward Islands, associated with this system by the end of
the week.

$$
Stripling