123
AXNT20 KNHC 262252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Long-Period NW Swell in the Atlantic: Long-period NW swell with
12-14 ft seas continue to propagate across the north-central
Atlantic subtropical waters in the wake of a dissipating cold
front that extends from 31N35W to 23N50W. Reinforcing NW swell of
12-16 seconds and seas to 16 ft will propagate through the waters
north of 25N east of 55W through Thu. Please read the latest high
seas forecast that was issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from
08N15W to 04N25W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 06N to 08N between 14W and 16W, and from 04N to 06N
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Fort Walton Beach, Florida to La
Pesca, Tamaulipas, Mexico. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is noted at this time. Moderate NW winds and 2-4 ft are
noted over the Straits of Florida and off northwest Cuba. Gentle
breezes and 1-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the north- central Gulf near 27N90W tonight, then lift N
of the area on Wed. A second cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf waters Thu morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop over the western Gulf Wed and Wed night ahead of the
front, which will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico early on Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to
near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat morning. The front will exit
the basin later on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow this front. Gusty winds to gale force
may occur over the west- central and SW Gulf in the wake of the
front on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A plume of deep, tropical moisture ahead of a mid to upper level
over Cuba and the Bahamas is bringing showers and thunderstorms to
Jamaica this afternoon. Related showers and thunderstorms are also
moving northward into Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. 1008 mb low
pressure persists just east of San Andres Island in the southwest
Caribbean. The gradient between the low pressure and higher
pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate fresh NE
to E winds and 4-6 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support moderate
to fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW part of the basin trough
Sat night. Locally strong NE winds are likely in the lee of
eastern Cuba through Wed. The above mentioned low pressure will
remain over the SW Caribbean through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected on the N semicircle of the
low center.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about long
period swell affecting western Atlantic.

1024 mb high pressure is centered near 29N66W. Farther east, the
aforementioned dissipating cold front extends from 31N35W to
23N50W. East of that, 1019 mb high pressure is centered west of
the Canary Islands near 27N25W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds
follow the cold front north of 29N, with NW swell extending west
of the front to 60W, north of 20N. The front is breaking up the
subtropical ridge, resulting in mostly moderate trade winds
farther south over the tropical Atlantic, where 5 to 7 ft seas
persist. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in northwest swell
persist elsewhere, except for 7 to 10 ft seas in the eastern
Atlantic north of 25N and east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridge will dominate waters of 25N while
a surface trough remains near the southeast Bahamas. The trough
will move westward, reaching the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba
by Wed night, and the NW Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thu
before weakening. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida
offshore waters tonight before stalling and lifting N of the area
late Wed. Another cold front is forecast to move offshore NE
Florida Thu night into Fri, extending from 31N70W to south Florida
by Sat morning, and from 31N60W to western Cuba by Sun morning.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front.

$$
Christensen