108
AXNT20 KNHC 170541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 13N and between 18W and 18W and remains
disorganized. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during
the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into
a hostile environment, and further development is not expected. The
disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb
low pres near 12N22W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to
06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on
both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River is
forcing fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 24N and
between 87W and 94W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are present in the
remainder of the western and SE Gulf waters. Seas of 3-5 ft
in the areas described. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen in the Bay of Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. Upper
level low pressure across the eastern Gulf tonight will support
active thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
northeastern Gulf or moves slowly northeastward toward the coast
of the southeastern United States early next week. The chance of
formation through the next 7 days is low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists to the north of the
Caribbean Sea, forcing strong to gale easterly trade winds across
the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas
are found in these waters. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate
seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. No significant
convection is evident across the Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge north of the basin along 26N-27N, and the
Colombian low, will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across
the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Otherwise,
strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas will prevail
across the much of the central Caribbean into the middle of next
week. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical
Atlantic north of 15N, anchored by 1027 mb centered near 28N47W.
Saharan dust and mid-latitude dry air continue to dominate the
basin, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.
Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are
occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent
south of 25N and west of 30W.

Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east
of 20W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge extends westward along 26N-27N tonight and will drift
slightly northward through Sun, then weaken early next week as a
broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W. This weather
pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N, and
gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each
night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.

$$
Delgado