164
AXNT20 KNHC 071634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from
02N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis, from 04N to 08N between 50W
and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and south of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails, with light to gentle SE to S winds and 2-4
ft season. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Winds
may pulse to moderate speeds off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the NW Gulf off the coasts of Texas and Mexico.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend
its ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build
modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next
week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon
and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward,
with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and
south- central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures over south America is supporting fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela, as captured by the latest satellite scatterometer
data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central
basin, with 5-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas
prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery along
the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into
the Bahamas and S Florida later today through the middle of next
week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading
westward through the middle of next week, except in the SW
Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will
be mainly elsewhere. Seas will build to rough with the increasing
winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist this weekend,
into early next week, across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into
northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across
the area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at
this time. Please, refer to your local meteorological office for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure
centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft
seas prevail across the basin. A few showers are near 30N70W near
a dissipating trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough near 79W will
continue to enhance weather east of it, mainly N of 29N. Atlantic
high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S
Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect
fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore
of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to fresh
winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N.

$$
Mahoney