490
AXNT20 KNHC 260414
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0413 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 23.5W,
from 16.5N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 10.5N between 21W and
31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 14.5N to 16.5N between the waves axis and 47W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 12N to 16N between 56W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is analyzed
near 72W, from 19N southward. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
11N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N47W to 09N55W. A cluster of
moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 13N east of 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 10N between 46.5W
and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
and adjacent land areas are associated with a trough of low
pressure that is moving inland over southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring
near and to the east of the trough in the north-central basin.
Scattered showers are depicted across the northern and western
basin in association with the trough. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted over the eastern Gulf in association to a
trough over western FL. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is depicted over the eastern Bay of Campeche in
association to a trough over the area. Moderate to locally fresh
NE winds are occurring over the Strait of Florida and north of the
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail with
seas 1 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located just off the
coast of southwestern Louisiana continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving westward, and it
will move inland over southwestern Louisiana or Texas tonight. A
weak pressure pattern will follow, supporting gentle breezes and
slight seas into the middle of next week. The exception will be
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1009 mb low over
northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is
leading to fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
and through the Windward Passage. Seas of 8-10 ft are found across
these waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also found across
the west-central through northwestern basin with seas of 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted downwind of
the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean. Numerous moderate
to locally strong convection is occurring in the northwestern
part of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N51W to
26N59W then its start to dissipate to 31N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring along the central and eastern portions of
the front from 26N to 31N between 49W and 59W. Moderate SW winds
and 4-7 ft seas are occurring north of the front, generally east
of 55W. Farther west, mainly gentle winds prevail north of 22N and
west of 35W. South of 22N and west 35W, moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Seas in these water are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere in the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic, moderate trade winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
along with mostly moderate seas are expected.

$$ KRV