634
AXNT20 KNHC 060606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Sep 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 17N southward
through a broad 1011 mb low near 12N36W. These features are
moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 35W and 41W. This
system could develop further during the early and middle part of
next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
for the next 2 to 7 days. Interests near the Lesser Antilles should
monitor its progress.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward
across the Mona Passage into north-central Venezuela. It is moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring over Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are seen to
the south from 15N to 17N between 67W and 75W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean
waters near northwestern Colombia and eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
just north of Dakar, then extends southwestward across 12N30W and
a 1011 mb low at 12N36W to 09N49W. An ITCZ continues westward
from 09N49W to north of Guyana at 10N59W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is flaring up near and south of the
monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between . Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 13N between 24W
and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An elongated 1012 mb low and related surface trough are persisting
across the east-central Gulf, creating isolated thunderstorms at
the east-central and southeastern Basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to
SSE to WSW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern
and far western Gulf. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will
lead to moderate or weaker winds and generally slight seas into
early next week. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf
late Sun, then stall and replace the trough over the northeast and
central Gulf early next week, continuing unsettled weather over
the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are coupling with an upper-level trough in the
vicinity to trigger scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms across waters near Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to
ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in moderate
easterly swell are noted at the northwestern basin, and waters
near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds with
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of
the central basin into early Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected to pulse off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat
night. Looking ahead, a tropical wave currently in the eastern
Atlantic may bring strong winds and rough seas to the Atlantic
waters east of the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends south-southwestward from off the Georgia
coast across 31N76W to the Great Bahama Bank. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate convection is noted from the Great Bahama Bank
northward to beyond 31N and west of 75W. Farther east, an upper-
level low near 24N64W and its related surface trough are causing
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 29N between 59W and 66W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Mainly gentle SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident
north of 20N and west of 65W. Farther east, gentle to moderate NE
to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 12N between 35W
and 65W/Lesser Antilles. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds along with 4 to 6
ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal trough will linger over
the Bahamas and east of Florida this weekend, then reinforced by
a frontal boundary that will stall over the same area early next
week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally
hazardous winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of
the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will
dominate weather into midweek next week, sustaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

$$

Chan