130
AXNT20 KNHC 102037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 13N between 25W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 03N to 17N, moving
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N
to 14N between 45W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 05N to 23N, moving
west at 15 kt. No significant convection currently accompanies
the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W S of 20N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave N
of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N50W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N50W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 17W and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward across the
northern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and slight seas,
prevail across the discussion area.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the general wind flow
pattern across basin through Fri before it reorganizes to a weak
high center over the NE Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds will generally prevail across the basin, with the
exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are
expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower
pressure in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong
winds, and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern
South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over
the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu allowing for the
trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern
portion of the basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach
near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to
strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the the Windward
Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 30N67W and a 1023 mb high centered near
27N41W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the waters N
of 22N, with slight to moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds,
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift southward to
along 28N Tue and to near 26N by Thu and change little into Sat.
The gradient will tighten over the southern portion leading to an
increase of the trades from the Bahamas eastward. Fresh trades
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night.
Of note, a tropical wave emerging off the coast of west Africa is
expected to interact with an area of low pressure that is located
a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
more conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a
tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.

$$
AL