282
AXNT20 KNHC 060610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 06N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 13N between
13W and 37W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to 26N90W,
then becomes nearly stationary to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the
basin. Otherwise, scattered showers associated with the front are
affecting the north-central and NW offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
persist into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin
into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and
building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may
develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW
Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds and 3-7 ft seas prevail across
SW portions of the Caribbean. In the NW basin, winds are moderate
or weaker and seas are slight. Rough seas of 8-10 ft in E swell
are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic
Passages. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing across the
offshore waters of E Honduras and south Jamaica.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed. High pressure will build by the middle of next week, leading
to strong winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into
late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N80W to Jacksonville, Florida and is
supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to
locally rough seas off NE Florida. A frontal trough extends from
31N50W to 25N64W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
trough N of 26N between 40W and 48W. Modearte to locally fresh SW
winds are ahead of the trough to 40W along with rough seas to 9
ft. Surface ridging is elsewhere across the subtropical Atlantic.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are ongoing from 20N to 22N
between 30W and 75W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal trough will move
eastward across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to
locally fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 60W
through tonight. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to
locally rough seas off NE Florida associated with the cold front
will push quickly eastward Sat into Sat night, mainly N of 30N.
The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by
early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

$$
Ramos