192
AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HURRICANE RAFAEL...

The center of Hurricane Rafael, at 08/1500 UTC, is in the south
central Gulf of Mexico, close to 24.5N 88.8W. Rafael is moving
toward the W, or 270 degrees 08 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 961 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
95 knots with gusts to 115 knots. Hurricane-force wind speeds are
within: 25 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 20 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant; and 25 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical
storm-force winds are within: 80 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant; 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 60 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and 80 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within:
270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 90 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant; 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 240
nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value
is 33 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: from 23N to 29N
between 85W and 91W strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to
very rough seas in E to SE swell. Expect for the remainder of the
area that is from 22N to 30N between 84W and 94W: winds 20 knots
or less, and rough to very rough seas in E to SE swell..
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 125 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 28N southward from 93W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more
information. Please, refer to the NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the
Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details about
Hurricane Rafael.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area to
the west of 20N63W 10N70W. A surface trough is along 25N67W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, to
16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. This trough is moving westward 10
knots to 15 knots since this morning. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in parts of the Caribbean
Sea and in parts of the Atlantic Ocean, from 16N to 25N between
56W and 76W. A low pressure center is supposed to form off the
western coast of Nicaragua later today. This feature is expected
to persist in this general area through early next week. Pacific
Ocean moisture will enhance extreme rainfall in Costa Rica. A
Central American Gyre (CAG) is forecast to start developing more
to the south during this afternoon. It is possible for heavy
rainfall to reach Panama for the next several days. Please, refer
to your local weather bureau for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 63W/64W, from 15N southward0,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward between 55W and
75W, from parts of the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 04N28W
and 04N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 07N southward between 30W and 40W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Rafael.

Mostly moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are away from
Hurricane Rafael, to the west of the hurricane. Some fresh winds
are from 26N northward from 92W westward.

Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.5N 88.8W at 1500 UTC, or 200
nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are
possible today, before a steady weakening trend begins tonight
through the weekend. A general westward to west- northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move slowly over the
central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days, reaching near 24.7N
89.8W this evening, near 25.1N 91.0W Sat morning, near 25.8N 91.9W
Sun morning as a tropical storm, near 25.5N 91.6W Mon morning,
and near 23.7N 92.0W Tue morning and a 30 kt remnant low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, about the potential for
heavy rainfall in Costa Rica and in Panama.

Slight to moderate seas are from the Windward Passage eastward.
Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area to the
west of 20N63W 10N70W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia, to
Costa Rica, through SW Nicaragua, to El Salvador and southern
Guatemala, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the border of
Honduras/Nicaragua southward from 75W westward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward, to the
southeast of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.5N 88.8W over the south
central Gulf of Mexico, while weak high pressure is located just W
of Bermuda. Fresh NE winds and locally rough seas will continue
today through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola
before diminishing by this evening. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
E trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period. Large N swell across the Atlantic will move
through the NE Caribbean Passages Mon through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb low pressure center is close to 28N23W. A stationary
front extends northeastward beyond 31N22W. A shear line extends
from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 23N30W 22N40W 22N59W
21N62W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 24N northward from 26W eastward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the rest of
the shear line.

Moderate to fresh winds NE winds, and locally strong winds, and
rough seas, are from 21N to 26N between 45W and the Bahamas.
Moderate easterly winds, and moderate seas in mixed moderate
swells, are from 26N northward between 35W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to
SE winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed moderate swells,
are from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

Fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas occurring north of
a shear line, located along 21N to the north of the Greater
Antilles, will diminish by tonight into Sat morning. A trough of
low pressure located just N of the Dominican Republic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward toward the Bahamas. Looking ahead,
another strong cold front will move southward into the forecast
waters on Sat, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough to very rough seas in N swell north of the Greater
Antilles through this weekend. The N swell will continue to
progress southeastward early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east
of the Windward Islands through the forecast period.

$$
mt/ss