081
AXNT20 KNHC 250529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The forecast consists of rough to very rough seas in long period
NW swell, and winds 20 knots or less, from 24N northward between
48W and 70W, lasting for the next 24 hours or so, until Monday
night. Broad low pressure centers are about 1000 nm to the north
of the area. A cold front is passing through 31N46W 24N60W 21N70W,
to the northern parts of the Windward Passage. Fresh SW winds are
from 29N northward, and within 125 nm to the east of the cold
front. A surface trough is from 180 nm to 300 nm to the northwest
of the cold front from 75W eastward. The trough remains from an
earlier secondary cold front. Everything will shift eastward after
the first 24 hours. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough to
very rough seas, from 22N northward between 35W and 64W, on
Tuesday night.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W, to 05N30W
and 06N45W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
04N to 07N between 46W and 49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 04N to 10N between 40W and 50W, and from
06N to 10N between 30W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, to the central
Gulf, toward the SW corner of the area. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds are from 24N northward from 93W westward. Mostly moderate to
some fresh surface anticyclonic winds cover much of the remainder
of the area. An exception is for gentle winds in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas cover the entire area.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
middle of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist
over the western Gulf through Mon before diminishing briefly. A
weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas Mon night into
Tue, extend along the northern Gulf through Wed, then lift N ahead
of another cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters late on
Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop
over the western Gulf on Wed ahead of the second front, which will
reach from N Florida to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, and
from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
The front will exit the basin on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds may briefly
reach minimal gale force near the Veracruz area on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost part of an Atlantic Ocean cold front passes
through 21N70W, and it curves into the Windward Passage. A surface
trough extends from the Windward Passage to 12N79W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters between 68W
and 82W.

A second surface trough curves toward the northwest, from 16N83W
to 17N86W, to 20N88W in the Yucatan Peninsula, with no significant
deep convective precipitation.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh to
strong NE winds are between 70W and 83W. Moderate to rough seas
are between 70W and 80W. Slight to moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in
the SW Caribbean and high pressure building N of area, over the
SW N Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE winds in the
Windward Passage, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
central Caribbean through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds are
forecast basin-wide the remainder forecast period, except in the
lee of eastern Cuba where fresh to locally strong NE winds are
predicted beginning on Tue as a trough or low pressure develops in
the vicinity of the SE Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
long period swell, the wind speeds, and the rough to very rough
seas, that are in the Atlantic Ocean.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N15W, to
26N20W 23N30W 24N36W 30N38W. A surface trough is along 19N31W
17N40W 18N45W 16N54W. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent in the satellite imagery. Moderate to rough seas are
from 27N northward between the cold front and 35W.

Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 22N southward
between 36W and 60W, and from 24N southward between 60W and 70W.
Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 20N southward from
36W eastward. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is from slight
seas that are from 75W westward.

A cold front extending from 31N45W to the Windward Passage will
move across the SE waters through Mon when it is forecast to stall
along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough to very
rough seas will follow the front N of 29N. These marine conditions
will gradually shift eastward on Mon. A trough or low pressure
will develop near the Turks and Caicos Islands early on Tue. The
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the W
will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
across the waters S of 25N and W of the trough axis to the coast
of eastern Cuba, including the SE Bahamas. Then, the trough/low
will stall in the SE Bahamas offshore waters trough Wed, with
winds and seas diminishing. The next cold front will enter the NE
Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of
the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to
the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front.

$$
mt/nr