321
AXNT20 KNHC 030418
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0417 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 21N, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
southwestward to near 07N23.5W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from
07N23.5W to near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 12N, and E of 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1017 mb low near 25N85W extends a cold front to near
19N97W. A stationary front is analyzed from the low to 23N82W. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N96W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the Florida
Panhandle toward the central Gulf, owing to the influence of
these fronts and an upper level trough over the region. Strong to
near-gale force NW to N winds are found north of the reinforcing
front and off of Veracruz according to the latest ASCAT. South of
the reinforcing front, N to NE moderate to fresh winds prevail.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. West of 90W, 4 to 6
ft seas are noted, except for seat to 8 ft off of Tampico,
Mexico. East of 90W, 1 to 4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the two fronts will gradually merge as they
sink SE across the basin through Mon night before exiting or
stalling just S of the area into Tue. High pressure will then
follow the combined front. The pressure gradient is forecast to
tighten across the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on
Tue, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally
rough seas. The high pressure will shift eastward, and winds will
veer to the SE and S toward the end of the work-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from the south-central coast of Cuba to
near 16N84W. This trough is likely interacting with the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough which runs across the
SW Caribbean, resulting in numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection S of 16N and W of 76W. Elsewhere, recent scatterometer
data indicates moderate to fresh trades across much of the
central and E Caribbean, with strong to near-gale trades occurring
S of 15.5N between 69W and 75W. Moderate seas are across much of
the central and E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the remaining basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will shift
westward through Mon while dissipating. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds are in the wake of a tropical wave, currently moving across
the central Caribbean, with axis near 76W. Fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas will dominate most of the central
Caribbean through Mon night. A cold front will to move across the
NW Caribbean by Mon night into early Tue while the above
mentioned tropical wave is expected to merge with the frontal
boundary. Fairly tranquil marine conditions should dominate the
basin by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 30N65W to 22N79W.
A cluster of moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring
ahead of the front, generally N of 22.5N and W of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection is also found along and north of the front
west of 61W. In the eastern Atlantic, an occluded 1015 mb low
centered near 29N29W extends a dissipating stationary front from
31N25W to 21N33W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
this front. Latest ASCAT passes captured strong to near-gale force
SW winds S and SE of the low. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds to
the N and W of the low. Rough seas are analyzed generally N of 22N
between 23W and 40W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the pressure
gradient between high pressures N of the area and lower pressures
in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh trades S of 26N
between 45W and 73W, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.
Moderate seas also prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front that extends
from 31N46W to 30N65W to 22N79W will dissipate to a remnant
trough then shift westward through Mon. A cold front is forecast
to enter the region early Mon morning, slowly shifting SE and
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh
to strong winds are expected on either side of the front through
late Tue, while rough seas persist in its wake through midweek.
The front will then weaken and wash out through midweek with
improving marine conditions from W to E toward the end of the
work-week, except N of 25N and E of 65W as a reinforcing set of NW
swell associated with a front clipping those waters moves through
Fri and Fri night.

$$
KRV