452
AXNT20 KNHC 101633
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1633 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extending from Naples, Florida to the Bay of
Campeche will race southeast today and exit the basin during the
afternoon hours. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough
to very rough seas are expected behind the front, with gale force
winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz this afternoon
into tonight. Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue evening
as high pressure settle southward into the region.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front
that extends from near 31N78W to the central Florida Peninsula.
Gale conditions will develop tonight offshore NE Florida. As the
front moves east, these gales will expand behind the front, mainly
N of 29N, through Tue. Elsewhere behind the front, strong to near
gale force N winds will dominate through Tue night, along with
rough to very rough seas. By late Wed, the front will stall front
near 30N55W to the Turks and Caicos, where it will weaken through
late week. As a result, winds and seas will slowly diminish.

For more information about these warnings, please see the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form today over the NW Caribbean Sea
and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south
today, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced
moisture convergence. A cold front will then arrive in Guatemala,
Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will
become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday.
Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be
possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was
provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction
Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 11N16W and continues
southwestward to near 06N27W. The ITCZ then extends from that
point to 07N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
04N to 15N, west of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for additional information
on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from near Naples, Florida, to the Bay
of Campeche. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough to
very rough seas are ongoing behind the front, with gale force
winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz. Otherwise,
scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the front will race SE and exit the basin by
early this afternoon. In its wake, near gale- force N winds and
rough to very rough seas will dominate through tonight. Gales will
prevail through this evening offshore Veracruz. Conditions will
improve basin-wide by Tue evening as high pressure settles into
the region for the remainder of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the significant rainfall event expected across Central America
and adjacent waters this week.

The interaction between the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon
Trough and a surface trough continues to support numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection across the offshore waters of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing over the NW Caribbean waters ahead of an
approaching cold front. Otherwise, surface ridging extending
across the northern basin continues to tighten the gradient across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Thus, fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail in these regions, except for strong winds
and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean, offshore
Colombia, and the Gulf of Venezuela.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected in the south-central Caribbean into Tue. Rough seas in
east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will gradually subside into Tue morning. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean waters this afternoon, bringing
strong to near gale force N winds and rough to very rough seas in
its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras Tue and gradually weaken through Wed night. Aside from
the strong winds and seas, the front will support the development
of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and
adjacent waters through at least Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic beginning tonight.

Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front
that extends from near 31N78W to the central Florida Peninsula.
Scattered moderate convection is found ahead of the front along a
pre-frontal trough that extends from 31N75W to western Bahamas.
Another surface trough extends from north of the eastern Bahamas
to western Haiti and it is supporting scattered moderate
convection along it axis. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is anchored
by a 1025 mb high near 32N37W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
dominate the open Atlantic waters S of 26N and E of 70W.
Otherwise, long- period NW swell is supporting rough seas to 9 ft
over the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic as well as
portions of the central tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Gale conditions will develop
tonight offshore NE Florida tonight, in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front. As the front moves east, these gales
will expand behind the front, mainly N of 29N, through Tue.
Elsewhere behind the front, strong to near gale force N winds will
dominate through Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas.
By late Wed, the front will stall front near 30N55W to the Turks
and Caicos, where it will weaken through late week. As a result,
winds and seas will slowly diminish.

$$
KRV