593
AXNT20 KNHC 312104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressure over
NW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough
to very rough seas in the Agadir region from 01/0600 UTC to at
least 01/1200 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17/18W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between
13W and 20W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
near this wave.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, south
of 19N, moving westward around 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 15N17W and continues to 11N22W to near 10N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N42W to 13N60W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from near Brooksville, Florida to
Galveston, Texas. Moderate winds prevail N of the front, where
seas are in the 2-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
1-2 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will continue to drift southward into
the central Gulf through Mon, then will stall and dissipate
through Tue. The front will be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms into mid week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place
will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the remainder of the central
Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters, except light to gentle winds
over the far NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 3-5 ft over the north central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure in combination with low
pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas across much of
the central Caribbean through this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic through
31N72W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail north of the front. Troughing prevails
elsewhere N of 20N and W of 35W. High pressure dominates the
waters N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted N
of 18N and E of 40W, reaching strong speeds off the coast of
Africa. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will persist through most
of this week. Expect fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough
seas north of the front into Tue, along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the
pattern from the central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting
gentle to moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

$$
AL