164
AXNT20 KNHC 232239
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends westward to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 29W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is dominating the weather across the basin. Gentle
to moderate N winds are occurring E of 90W. Light to gentle
variable winds are occurring elsewhere along with slight seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the basin
through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
will develop over the western Gulf tonight, and continue through
early next week before diminishing slightly. A weak cold front may
move into the far NW Gulf early next week where it will stall and
weaken. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop
over the western Gulf the middle of next week ahead of a cold
front which will move into the NW Gulf Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the SE coast of Cuba SW to the
Costa Rica offshore waters with fresh to locally strong N winds
and moderate seas observed near and behind the front. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the front
is occurring in the SW basin, where the E extension of the Pacific
monsoon trough also supports similar activity. A surface trough
is analyzed from the Mona Passage to the north coast of Colombia,
and is leading to the development of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the trough. Another
surface trough is analyzed just W of the Lesser Antilles, with
scattered moderate convection observed near this trough as well.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing elsewhere along with
slight seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through
Sun. Strong N winds W of the front will diminish to fresh speeds
this evening. A tightening pressure gradient between low pressure
in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW
Atlantic subtropical waters will support fresh NE winds in the
Atlantic Passages through early next week, and fresh to strong NE
to E winds S of Hispaniola Sun through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades in the E Caribbean will freshen Sun through Tue
before diminishing slightly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W SW to the Windward Passage. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N61W SW to the southeast
Bahamas with fresh to strong W to NW winds behind it as well as
over the waters N of 28N between 58W and 77W. Rough to very rough
seas are also occurring across areas north of 25N between 58W and
77W. Farther east, surface high pressure of 1018 mb and its
associated ridge covers the central subtropical waters while a
surface trough dominates the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.
Moderate winds and moderate seas are ongoing over these two
regions, except for areas north of 29N between 25W and 40W where
fresh to strong cyclonic winds are depicted via recent satellite
scatterometer data, along with seas of 8-10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold fronts will merge tonight,
with the merged front moving E of the area by Sun evening. Rough
seas impacting the waters mainly N of 25N between 56W and 76W will
shift eastward through the middle of next week, then E of the
forecast waters the end of next week. A cold front will enter the
NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N
of the area late Wed. Another cold front will approach the far NW
waters the end of next week.

$$
Konarik