428
AXNT20 KNHC 061029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03.5N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 13W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from 30N87W to
26N85.5W. No convection is occurring near this trough. Otherwise,
a 1017 mb high centered near 27.5N88W extends ridging over the
rest of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 2
to 5 ft seas are occurring over the western Gulf, with mainly
gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas noted east of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas are expected west of 95W through Wed as ridging
over the central Gulf moves eastward. Widespread moderate to fresh
S to SE winds will develop over the central and western Gulf by
Wed night, with strong winds and rough seas possible offshore of
Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a storm system forms over
the central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected
to enter the northwestern Gulf Fri night into Sat, and widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the
front as it sweeps over the basin this weekend. Gale force winds
will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 mb low is centered near 17N79.5W, and a surface trough
extends northeastward from the low to the Windward Passage, as
well as to the southeast to 12N76W. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted near the trough, including
through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted south of Hispaniola.
Moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring over the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough
seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean by this evening
as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Winds may reach
near-gale force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse through the
Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola
through late week as high pressure builds to the north. By late
week, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over much of the
central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W southwestward to 20N65W, where it
continues westward as a decaying stationary front just north of
the Greater Antilles. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near the cold front, north of 23N between 44W and 58W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted north and west of the
cold front, with locally strong winds occurring north of 27N
between 57W and 62W, as the pressure gradient increases between
the front and high pressure centered near 35N64.5W. Farther west,
moderate S to SW winds are developing offshore of northern
Florida. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 6
to 8 ft seas prevail south of 20N. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8
to 12 ft seas are occurring near and downwind of the Canary
Islands, north of 22N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
expected over much of the northwestern tropical Atlantic through
Wed morning as a cold front in the central Atlantic drifts
eastward, and high pressure builds off the southeast coast of the
U.S. Locally rough seas occurring in the wake of the front, south
of 27N and west of 65W, will diminish this morning, with rough
seas east of 65W diminishing through Wed morning. Elsewhere,
locally fresh S to SW winds are expected well offshore of Florida
into Wed as a surface trough develops to the north. Looking ahead,
high pressure will build off the coast of the eastern U.S. by
late week.

$$
ADAMS