622
AXNT20 KNHC 112316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to
near gale-force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Latest
satellite scatterometer data showed minimal gale-force winds off
the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter data
showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale-
force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun morning.
Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with these
winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 65W
south of 18N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. The wave appears
to enhance convection over northern Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is along 91W S of 21N affecting SE Mexico
and western Guatemala. Please, see the Eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N31W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N31W to 06N50W to the coast of Guyana near
08N60W. Convection is limited across the area.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward
across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly
low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture
into the basin. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are noted along the coastal waters on the N Gulf states. Similar
convective activity is occurring over north-central Florida and
the SE Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the waters east of 88W.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally prevail west of 88W,
where seas are also 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will become stationary just N of
the area early next week, enhancing thunderstorms across the far
northern Gulf. Mariners in this portion of the basin can expect
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the
stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong
easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. A Gale Warning is
in effect.

As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal
gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with
these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate
the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds
in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin
where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with
embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. Convection
has flared-up over the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north
of the basin and lower environmental pressures over northern South
America supports strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough
seas over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
This pattern will persist through next week. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off Colombia tonight. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras
will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low is spinning across eastern Cuba generating
some shower activity. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters
N of 25N between 52W and 63W. Similar convective activity is
noted N of 28N between 70W and 75W. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate
seas, except for locally rough seas to 8 ft off Haiti and eastern
Cuba, and across the waters east of the Lesser Antilles.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades
south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing
strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage.

$$
GR