397
AXNT20 KNHC 240457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain tonight into Tuesday, while
northeastern Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima
on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 17N, moving
westward around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave
axis.

A tropical wave has been relocated along 61W based on satellite
and precipitable water imagery. The wave is moving westward around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 12N and between
55W and 63W, also affecting the Windward Islands. The wave is
also enhancing convection over NE South America.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N,
moving quickly westward around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found south of 18N and between 66W and 73W.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of
18N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident across the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W, then continuing southwestward to 08N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 12N and east of 22W. Similar
convection is seen south of 08N and west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is supporting popcorn convection over the
northern half of the Gulf waters, while diurnal heating is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
NE and northern Gulf coast and western Yucatan and surrounding
waters. The subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf of America. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters
are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). The satellite-derived wind data also
captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the SE Gulf,
especially in the Florida Straits. Seas are 4-6 ft (1.5-2 m) in
the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across eastern Yucatan, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
Please see the Tropical Waves section for more detail on the
convection associated with these features. High pressure to the
north of the islands continues to sustain fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds over much of the basin. This was confirmed by
a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 4-7 ft (1.5-2.5 m)
are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong trades across most of the east and central Caribbean
through the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela by Thu night. Moderate to
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late this week,
winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due
to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad
area of low pressure currently located a few hundred miles
offshore of Central America which has the potential of tropical
cyclone formation.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1020 mb gale low
pressure (Invest 90L) located north of the forecast area near
35N53W to the SE Bahamas. Isolated to scattered showers are
evident on satellite imagery north of 22N and between 55W and 70W.
The rest of the basin is under the influence of an expansive
subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally strong
easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft (1.5-3 m). In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 18N
and east of 25W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
are prevalent between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough persist over the
forecast waters, and extends southwestward from 31N56W to the
central Bahamas. The trough will dissipate tonight into Tue, and
the Atlantic high pressure will then extend westward towards the
Florida peninsula. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected
south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally
moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong E
winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri.

$$
Delgado