442
AXNT20 KNHC 221835 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024

Corrected Caribbean Sea forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States,
north of 30N between 70W and 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing
cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of
the Bahamas today through Sat night. The strongest winds will
occur north of 30N today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas
will accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected
north of 28N between 77W and 60W. Long-period N swell with this
front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat
morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and
seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east
of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the
Atlantic near 08N13W and extends westward to near 07N58W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 09N between 20W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 04N to 12N between 43W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf from 27N82W to 25N89W to
28N96W. Fresh NW to N winds are occurring behind this front and
across much of the Gulf E of 90W, with locally strong winds
occurring in the far northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are
occurring elsewhere. Moderate seas are observed across the
majority of the Gulf, while the NW Gulf is seeing slight seas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Sarasota,
Florida to 26N88W and to near central Texas will shift east-
southeastward of the basin this afternoon. Fresh northwest to
north winds are behind the front over the NE Gulf. These winds
will change little through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds
Sat. Residual north swell producing seas of 8 ft over the far
southeastern Gulf and in the the Yucatan Channel and vicinity
waters will subside to below 8 ft this afternoon. Otherwise, high
pressure centered over the western Gulf will shift eastward
through the weekend, with winds elsewhere across the basin
diminishing to light to gentle speeds. The high pressure will be
centered over the NE Gulf early next week, with moderate to fresh
southerly winds developing over the western Gulf starting late Sat
and through Tue night. A weak cold front may move into the far
western Gulf early next week and stall.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to near
the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Widely scattered
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of both
the front and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon
trough, generally south of 13N. Another area of scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 18N between 67W and
73W in association with a developing surface trough. Recent
scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh to locally
strong N to NW winds and moderate seas occurring behind the
stationary front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean
west of 80W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of
the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba
to near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica will weaken
and dissipate during the weekend. Fresh to locally strong N
winds are behind the front with seas to 8 ft. These conditions
will gradually diminish through Sun. A tightening pressure
gradient between developing low pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean and high pressure building over the southeastern
United States will promote fresh NE winds in the Atlantic
Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and moderate seas in E swell will develop across much
of the basin Sun through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N65W to 27N71W to 22N75W.
The front then becomes stationary from 22N75W into eastern Cuba.
Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
occurring along and ahead of this front, generally north of 27N. A
few showers are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold
front is moving into the region and is located from 31N78W to
28N80W. Recent scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale
force NW winds and rough seas occurring behind this front.
Elsewhere, a surface trough is analyzed over the northern Lesser
Antilles from 16N62W to 24N58W; isolated showers are observed near
this trough. Another trough, located from 23N44W to 30N32W
trailing a cold front, is leading to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along and to the east of the trough. NW
swell behind this trough is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of
28N between 40W and 55W. Otherwise, ridging dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters with gentle to moderate
trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N66W to 26N72W and to 23N74W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to eastern Cuba. A reinforcing cold front extends
from near 31N73W to near Vero Beach, Florida. This front will
reach from near 31N72W to SE Florida by early this afternoon. Gale
force west to northwest winds are expected behind this front
beginning this afternoon N of 30N between the front and 77W. Fresh
to strong winds are expected elsewhere on either side of the
front N of 26N. The front will merge into the first front from
near 31N64W to 26N69W and to near the Windward Passage by late
tonight, at which time the gale conditions are expected to
diminish. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected with the gale winds,
and seas of 8 to 12 ft elsewhere N and NE of the Bahamas through
late tonight. Long-period N swell with this front will produce
rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will
shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft
will continue into next week for areas east of 65W.

$$
Adams