071
AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W-42W, south of 24N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. 1013 mb low pres is noted along the wave
axis near 18.5N41.5W. A cluster of scattered moderate convection
has developed in recent hours over the low center, from 18N to 21N
between 42W and 44W. Tropical development of this system appears
unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward to northward across the central tropical and
subtropical Atlantic. This feature has a low (near zero) chance of
tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in
the next 7 days. Refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 10.5N30W
to 13N35W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 11N46W to the coast of
Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 07N to 16.5N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 42W
and 56W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stalled front lingers across the NE Gulf waters along about 29N,
from northern Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
A surface trough extends across central Florida to near western
Cuba, Scattered moderate to strong convection continues about
this trough east of 85W, from Cuba to the Florida Big Bend, and
extends inland across much of central Florida. Scattered moderate
convection dots portions of the remainder of the Gulf. Weak high
pressure across the western Gulf analyzed at 1200 UTC appears to
have temporarily dissipated. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the Gulf, highest near thunderstorms currently
across the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across the Gulf waters into early next week
supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will occur Mon night west of
the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops inland during the
afternoons, then shifts westward into the Bay of Campeche in the
evenings and at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widely scattered moderate convection is noted across the NW basin
between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula, while a small cluster
of similar convection is halfway between Jamaica and Colombia.
Fair weather otherwise prevails across the Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds prevail across the east and south-
central Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades prevail, with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, Weak high pressure north of basin with combine
with the Colombian low to support fresh to locally strong winds
and moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore Venezuela
and Colombia through Sat, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas are expected. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas are forecast through early next week.
Trades may increase to fresh speeds over the central and eastern
portions of the basin early next week as a tropical wave moves
across the region. In the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing winds of fresh
speeds with moderate seas are expected through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from 30N80W across central Florida
continues to support scattered moderate isolated strong
convection across adjacent waters, from 23N to 30N between 74W
and 80W, and are supported by an upper level low between 65W and
75W. A stationary front across north Florida extends northeastward
to beyond 32N77W, and is producing scattered moderate convection
north of 30N west of 76W. the front then dives southeastward to
near 31N along 59W, where scattered moderate convection is
occurring the south from 27N to 31N between 58W and 65W. 1018 mb
high pressure is centered between these areas of convection near
29N68W. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the basin,
with 3-6 ft seas in open waters.

East of the tropical wave along 41W-42W, moderate to locally fresh
NE winds prevail north of 16N to 25W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 1027
mb high pressure is centered near 33N35W. The pressure gradient
between the associated ridge and lower pressure across western
Africa is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N and
east of 25W to the coast of Morrocco. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across
this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, a relatively weak pressure gradient
across the region will support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas through Sun, except for occasional fresh
pulsing winds near Hispaniola. Low pressure (AL96) is likely to
approach the eastern waters late Sun into Mon. Development of this
system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely during the next
day or two due to surrounding dry air, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a few days. A
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves northwestward to northward across
the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Currently, there
is a medium range of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7
days.

$$
Stripling