246
AXNT20 KNHC 092327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 25.5N 91.7W at 09/2100
UTC or 270 nm NNW of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20
ft. Rafael is a sheared system, and the center has become exposed
to the southwest of its associated convection. Weakening is expected
through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to
a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday. On the forecast track,
the storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central
Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south
and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Rafael poses to direct
threat to land, but swells generated by the tropical cyclone will
continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf
Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Also, the interaction
of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front across
the NW Gulf of Mexico will cause heavy rainfall and potentially
significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and
Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Persistent
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a
Central America Gyre (CAG) will support the potential for heavy
rainfall across southern Central America into early next week.
This weather pattern may particularly impact Costa Rica and
Panama. Global models continue to show the CAG having a
connection to the long moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific
through next Thu. This information is provided by the Weather
Prediction Center`s International desk team. Please refer to your
national weather agency for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is
along 65W/66W, from 18N southward into central Venezuela, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is noted along the wave axis near 15N65W covering the waters from
13N to 16N between 63.5W and 66W. The wave is also helping to
induce convection over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and regional
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, and continues westward to 08N14W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N14W to 06N30W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 40W
and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Rafael continues to be the main feature across
the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details. Outside the direct impact of Rafael, a weak high
pressure of 1016 mb is analyzed along the coast of Mexico between
Tampico and Veracruz while a ridge dominates the far NE Gulf. A
stationary front is analyzed over the NW Gulf. Fresh northerly
winds follow the front while light to gentle W winds are seen
over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate E winds are observed per
scatterometer data over the NE Gulf. Seas 8 ft or greater generated
by Rafael dominate most of the waters N of 22N and W of 87W. Seas
in the 4 to 7 ft range are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, Rafael will move to near 25.7N 91.9W around
midnight tonight, reach near 26.0N 91.8W Sun afternoon, weaken to
a remnant low near 25.7N 91.4W around midnight Sun, then continue
to drift southwestward and weaken through Wed. Looking ahead,
moderate to locally fresh E winds will build across most of the
Gulf on Wed, then weaken Wed night and Thu as a new cold front
moves into the western part of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy
rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. A tropical wave is moving
across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves
section for more details.

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located E
of the central Bahamas across the Windward Passage into the
central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
associated with this trough affecting eastern Cuba and Jamaica.
A broad cyclonic circulation is over the SW Caribbean. On the E
side of this system, scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms
are also noted, mainly between 68W and 74W.

Light to gentle winds are noted across much of the basin, with
the exception of moderate SE winds behind the aforementioned
tropical wave. Moderate NE to E winds are also seen in the
Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are
4 to 6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft near the
coast of Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, seas are 1
to 3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate SE winds occurring E of 65W and
through the passages of the Lesser Antilles will gradually shift
to E on Sun as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean moves
westward into the central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds will
develop across the NW Caribbean this evening as high pressure
briefly builds southward between Rafael in the central Gulf of
Mexico, and a surface trough across the Windward Passage. This
trough will shift westward through the Bahamas, Cuba and the NW
Caribbean tonight through early Tue. Moderate to large N swell
entering the Atlantic this evening will move through the NE
Caribbean Passages and across the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon
through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front will move southeastward
across Cuba on Wed and across the NW basin and Hispaniola Wed
night through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a couple
of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is associated with
a trough of low pressure. At 1800 UTC, a surface low of 1011mb
(invest area AL98) is analyzed near the northern end of the trough
axis. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next day or so before it moves into unfavorable environmental
conditions on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible as it moves generally westward
across the Bahamas through Sunday. Currently, this system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and
also through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook for more details. Fresh to strong winds and seas
of 7 to 9 ft are associated with this system.

A strong cold front has reached the northern forecast waters. A
narrow band of clouds, with possible showers, is related to the
front, that extends from 31N58W to 30N81W. SE of the front,
strong westerly winds aloft support an area of showers and
thunderstorms that is affecting the waters from 23N to 30N
between 48W and 60W. A very weak low of 1018 mb is located near
29N22W. Light to gentle winds surround the low, that is well
defined on scatterometer data. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, anchored on a
1030 mb high pressure situated well E of the Azores. An area of
fresh to strong trade winds with moderate to rough seas is noted
over the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 12N between 36W and 52W
likely associated with the pressure gradient between the ridge to
the N and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas occurring along and to the west of a trough, located
from the Windward Passage to 25N71W, will strengthen tonight as
the trough drifts W, and high pressure behind an approaching cold
front builds into the area. The trough will move westward across
the Greater Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern
Bahamas, and eastern Cuba through Mon before quickly weakening.
A strong cold front is moving southward into the northern
forecast waters this evening, and will reach 25N Sun morning,
along 20N Mon morning, then will stall and begin to weaken along
19N Mon afternoon through Tue. Expect widespread fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell north
behind the front through early Mon before diminishing early next
week. N swell will reach the NE Caribbean Mon morning and the
Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas
will occur east of the Windward Islands through the forecast
period.

$$
GR