401
AXNT20 KNHC 021035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 63W from 22N southward across the E
Caribbean to northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west near 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms are
seen near from 16N to 24N between 59W and 67W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean near 74W from 20N
southward, and moving west near 15 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave, except for inland Colombia.

A tropical wave is in the NW Caribbean near 85W from near 22N
southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica. The wave
axis is moving west at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered showers and
tstms are ongoing over the NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 13N20W to
08N30W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N30W to 07N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 07N to 09N between 30W and the Guinea-
Bissau/Sierra Leone. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found up to 150 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean
waters near western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough continues to generate isolated showers over the
Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a modest 1021 mb high over the NE
Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
for most of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the
basin through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase across the northern Gulf
over the weekend into Mon as a weak low pressure develops in the
vicinity of SE Louisiana, along a stalling frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin, one generating
isolated showers over the NW Caribbean and another supporting
scattered heavy showers over the NE basin. Winds and seas across
the basin are being modulated by these waves and the ridge, which
extends into the northern Caribbean. The resultant pressure
gradient continues to support fresh to strong winds over the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean with moderate to rough
seas to 10 ft with the stronggest winds. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds are over the E basin while moderate or weaker winds and
moderate to slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
through Wed night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of
Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the E Caribbean while
moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, a tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the eastern Caribbean
today, the central Caribbean tonight into Sun and across the SW
basin Sun night into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores Highs and associated ridge covers the
subtropical Atlantic waters and support moderate or weaker winds
along with slight to moderate seas. The exception are the
offshore waters N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola due to the
passage of a tropical wave.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through the period, supporting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. The
pressure gradient between a tropical wave currently moving across
the E Caribbean and the Atlantic high pressure will support an
area of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds with moderate to
rough seas that will move north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico through today and N of Hispaniola tonight into Sun. Winds and
seas will diminish Sun as the high pressure weakens some.

$$
Ramos