653
AXNT20 KNHC 020400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure and an attendant cold front
moving S of 31N will reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late
Tue. Strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front Tue,
increasing to gale-force SE of Bermuda by afternoon. Seas will
build in this area to very rough. The front will stall Tue night,
and winds will fall below gale force by Wed morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 16N and
moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis.

A new tropical wave has been analyzed along 48W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently
associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 5 kt. Associated convection is confined
to inland portions of Central America and the waters of the
eastern Pacific basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N28W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 06N34W and then from 05N37W to
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to
12N and east of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft, tropical moisture and diurnal heating support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central
and eastern Gulf and the Yucatan peninsula. The weak pressure
gradient forces moderate to locally easterly winds and seas of 1-3
ft over much of the western Gulf, west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a modest ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters until Wed morning, supporting gentle to moderate easterly
to southerly winds. A late-season cold front will enter the
northeastern Gulf Wed night, then stall from near Punta Gorda,
Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before
dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and
rough seas behind this front. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild
across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An
upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to
support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central
Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force
easterly winds, up to 33 kt, off northern Colombia. This is due to
the very tight pressure gradient between the expanding 1032 mb
high pressure system south of the Azores and very low pressures in
northern Colombia. Fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds
and rough seas are found in the central Caribbean. Fresh to
locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern
basin through Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly
starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. by Thu.
Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf
of Honduras through Fri night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
with slight to moderate seas will prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for
waters southeast of Bermuda Tue evening.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure system is analyzed near 30N75W and a
cold front extends from the low to near the central coast of
Florida. A warm from extends from the low to 28N69W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present off SE Florida
and also north of 25N and between 61W and 73W. Moderate to
locally strong cyclonic winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring
north of 26N and west of 68W. Farther east, a stationary front
extends from 31N58W to the warm front. Moderate to locally fresh
S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the front to 24N
and between 50W and 70W. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure system
centered south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to
locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas east of a line from
31N36W to the Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds and highest
seas are found off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low will move
eastward along a stationary front past Bermuda through late Tue.
Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front Tue,
with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas
expected southeast of Bermuda by late Tue. The front will stall
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Tue night, ahead of a
reinforcing front moving into the waters off northeast Florida
accompanied by strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Fri after the
fronts merge, then weaken in place from Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas with broad high pressure building off the Carolinas.
Farther south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola Tue nigh.

$$
Delgado