288
AXNT20 KNHC 071039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from
01.5N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 08N between 42W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N24W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to 05N41W,
then it resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N46W to 06N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm on either
sides of the boundaries and W of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extend its ridge westward to near 91W. The
associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
winds across the basin, except for light winds over the NE Gulf
and fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds along the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher
seas of 3 to 5 ft over the west-central Gulf and in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend its
ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build
modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next
week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon
and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward.
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and south-
central Gulf through Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and
Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures over south America is supporting fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and the Gulf
of Honduras, moderate to fresh prevail elsewhere. Moderate to
rough seas prevail across the basin. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with the eastern portion of the
Pacific monsoon trough are found across the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure N of the region will shift NE
and into the N central Atlantic through the weekend. The Atlantic
ridge will then build SW into the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat
through the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh
to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the
central basin through the middle of next week, except in the SW
Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Seas will build to rough
with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic
by early next week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist this weekend,
into early next week, across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into
northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across
the area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at
this time. Please, refer to your local meteorological office for
more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N72W to 29N74W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front north of 29N. Moderate to fresh
southwest winds and moderate seas are evident north of 29N
between 70W and 79W. Farther east, a surface trough enters the
basin through 31N60W and continues southwestward to near 25N68W.
Scattered showers prevail along this trough.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a 1030 mb high pressure north of the area. The associated
gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh trades south of 23N
between 35W and 60W. Moderate to rough seas are over these same
waters. Similar winds and seas are evident east of 35W and from
12N and 25N. Fresh to strong north winds and moderate to rough seas
are noted north of 29N and east of 14W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front W of Bermuda will
continue to move E enhancing weather mainly N of 30N. Weak high
pressure W of the front will shift NE and into the central
Atlantic through today. Atlantic high pressure will then build
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue, then
weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to
pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next
week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and
elsewhere south of 22N.

$$
ERA