320
AXNT20 KNHC 121035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern Bay of
Campeche and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The heaviest
rainfall accumulations may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this
48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part
of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4
inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan
states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to
local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 26W-27W, S of 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the 06Z
analysis along 46W, S of 15N, moving westward near 15 kt. The wave
axis is clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W-57W, S of
12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, S of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers prevail
between the wave axis and 61W, to the south of 15N.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 73W-74W,
south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring at the present time near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 08N25W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ, continuing on to the coast of Brazil near 05.5N53W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is across the
waters of W Africa from 02N to 12N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11.5N between
19W and 32W, from 05N to 07.5N between 36W and 41W, and from 05.5N
to 07N between 51W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Bay of Campeche
northeastward to the offshore waters of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and extends into the middle atmosphere. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E to SE winds across the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to 24N, and east of the
surface trough. This feature is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the basin S of 25N between the
Yucatan Channel and 93.5W. Weak high pressure across the western
Atlantic extends a ridge westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft across this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate SE winds prevail across
the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle southerly winds
over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, a broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift slowly northwestward through the
weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This
pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the
coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Mon and Tue after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1019 mb high pressure near 29N69W extends a ridge westward across
Florida and the NE Gulf of America. Two tropical waves are moving
quickly across the central Caribbean overnight, south of the
ridge. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with
near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These
winds are occurring between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast,
and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are
likely 5-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across the northwest Caribbean W of
81W. This pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the
south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing
off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7-9
ft. Moderate E winds prevail elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, as a pair of
tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest
winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean,
to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat
evening. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain active N of
26N between 50W and 59W, associated with a weak area of low
pressure near 29.5N58.5W, with an lingering frontal trough
extending eastward to 31N41W. A broad ridge extends from the
Azores to south of the trough near 24N55W. 1019 mb high pressure
is centered W of the low pressure near 29N69W and extends a weak
ridge westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern
is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas
south of 22N and between 35W and 60W, and moderate E to SE winds @
of 22N between 60W and 80W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 22N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling