518
AXNT20 KNHC 052259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 06 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W
S of 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are west of the axis to near 42W and from
05N to 06N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 08N23W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N37W. It resumes to the W
of the above described tropical wave near 05N39W to near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 33W-37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
eastern Gulf of America while a trough is analyzed from near
25N92W to 21N95W and to the western Bay of Campeche near
18N95W. The pressure gradient in place is generally allowing
for light to moderate S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and
for mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except
for fresh E to SE winds S of 25N E of 84W including the Straits
of Florida. Good coverage of scatterometer satellite data passes
this afternoon captured these winds. Seas are in the range of 3
to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the
central sections of the Gulf and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over
the northern sections.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms confined to the eastern Gulf from 25N to 29N
between 83W and 85W. This activity is being sustained by a
lingering upper-level trough that is over the eastern Gulf.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and near the western
tip of Cuba. The satellite imagery also reveals that skies are
hazy over the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the
presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

For the forecast, the weak high pressure that is across the
eastern Gulf will build modestly westward into the central Gulf
late Sun through early next week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds
are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE
winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon
between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between rather weak high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the southern
Caribbean and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to
strong trades to be across the most of the basin, including the
Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass
highlighted these winds. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over
the central section of the basin, 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras, also from 18N to 20N between 76W and 80W, and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.
A recent altimeter satellite data pass noted the 7 to 9 ft seas.

Satellite imagery reveals large clusters of numerous moderate to
strong convection confined to S of 12N between 76W and 84W due
to the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough that
reaches into that part of the sea. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 19N to 21N between 76W and 85W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere primarily W of 76W and E of 70W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure N of the region that is
over the western Atlantic will shift northeastward into the N
central Atlantic Fri and through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge
will then build southwestward toward the Bahamas and S Florida
late Sat through early next week. This pattern will lead to fresh
to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the
central basin and Gulf of Honduras through Fri evening, diminish
slightly on Sat, then increase across most of the basin Sat night
into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N56W southwestward to
28N62W and to 25N67W. Satellite imagery shows isolated small
showers and thunderstorms along and near the frontal boundary.
A few clusters of scattered moderate convection are evident over
the waters E and NE of northern Florida to near 77W. This
activity is out ahead of a cold front that is over the
southeastern U.S., and a lingering upper-level trough that
stretches from eastern Georgia to the eastern Gulf of America.
Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper-level troughing that is
over the central Atlantic N of about 20N and between 55W and 72W.
An area of broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds
is noted ahead of this trough to near 54W. Patches of light
to moderate rain and isolated showers are possible within
this area of clouds. Farther to the E, a trough is analyzed
along 32W from 21N to 29N. No significant convection is
occurring with this trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere
over the tropical and subtropical waters as a 1031 mb high
center is well N of the area near 38N41W. The pressure
gradient in place is generally supporting moderate to fresh
trades and 5 to 7 ft seas over most of Atlantic S of 20N and
N of 20N and E of 30W. Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are N of 29N
between between 70W and 74W and from 27N to 29N W of 77W. Seas
of 3 to 5 ft are N of 29N between 65W and 70W. Moderate or
weaker trades along with seas of 4 to 6 ft remain elsewhere.

Satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak
of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of
the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak,
has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some
areas of the western Atlantic, including to over the Florida
peninsula as seen in the GOES-E GeoColor imagery.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary
front will begin to lift back N as a warm front and dissipate
through Fri night. Weak high pressure NW of this front will shift
NE and into the central Atlantic Fri into Sat. Atlantic high
pressure will then build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S
Florida Sun through Tue. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse
each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola during the
period.

$$
Aguirre