875
AXNT20 KNHC 041101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical came off the west coast of Africa earlier this morning.
The wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 17W, moving west
at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N
between 13W and 28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W
from Haiti southward to Colombia, moving west at 5-10 kt.
No deep convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the western-Caribbean with axis near 85W,
moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near NE
Honduras and across the Nicaragua offshored waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 15N17W, then extends
southwestward across 12N27W to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 08N37W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 09N between 30W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extending southwestward from a 1012 mb low at
the Florida Panhandle is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the NE and central Gulf. A stationary front from
the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas is generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the north-central and NE Gulf offshore
waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary across the northern Gulf region through Tue while
dissipating. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula, Tue night through Fri night, as a trough
develops there daily and drifts westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1022 mb high near 31N56W sustains a trade-wind flow across much
of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is triggering scattered
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms near southeastern Cuba.
Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas exist at the north-central basin. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted at the northwestern basin,
and waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
mainly at night through Wed night. Afterward, winds over the
central basin will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through
Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades are expected over the E
Caribbean through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds
over the NW Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds Mon
night through Wed as a tropical wave moves across the area. Fresh
to locally strong E winds are also expected in the Gulf of
Honduras Tue through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the subtropical waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores Highs, which continue to provide moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through the period, supporting gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. An area of showers
and thunderstorms, supported by moist and humid southerly flow,
will persist over the east waters, particularly N of 20N between
60W and 70W, through at least today. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms.

$$
Ramos