021
AXNT20 KNHC 250932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Long-period NW swell with 12-13 ft seas continue to propagate
across the north-central Atlantic subtropical waters in the wake
of a stationary front that extends from 31N42W SW to 23N60W to the
Windward Passage. The front will remain stationary while weakening
and merge with a reinforcing cold front tonight into Tue. A
second set of long-period NW swell will follow the reinforcing
front and propagate across the north-central and northeastern
Atlantic subtropical waters with 12-15 ft seas through Thu.
Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 05N30W
and 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04N to
13N between 30W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb located over the SW subtropical Atlantic
waters extends a ridge SW across the entire Gulf, supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas E of 90W and
moderate to fresh SE to S winds and slight to moderate seas W of
90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will persist over the western Gulf through today before
diminishing briefly. A weak cold front will move off the coast of
Texas tonight into Tue, extend along the northern Gulf through
Tue, then move NE of the area Tue night. Another cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by Thu morning. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western
Gulf Tue night through Wed night ahead of the second front, which
will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico early
on Fri, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico
Fri night. The front will exit the basin on Sat. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds
may briefly reach minimal gale force near the Veracruz area on
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Heavy showers and tstms continue to affect the central and
portions of the SW and NW Caribbean. This shower activity is
associated with the tail of a stationary front along the Windward
Passage and a surface trough that continues SW to 12N78W. The
pressure gradient between this broad area of low pressure and high
pressure of 1022 mb located over the SW subtropical Atlantic
waters is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds W of 77W and
fresh to locally strong trades across the remainder central and
eastern Caribbean. Seas are moderate to 7 ft E of 83W.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between
developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure
building N of area, over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to
strong trade winds S of Hispaniola today and moderate to fresh NE
to E winds over the W Caribbean through Thu. Moderate to fresh
easterlies will also cover the central and eastern basin through
Fri night. Locally strong NE winds are likely to develop in the
lee of eastern Cuba Tue night as an area of low pressure develops
in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. The area of low pressure
over the SW Caribbean is forecast to deepen by Fri evening, thus
increasing northerly winds W of 80W and over the southern Jamaica
offshore waters to fresh to strong speeds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
long period swell.

High pressure of 1022 mb has built over the SW subtropical
Atlantic waters near 28N69W in the wake of a stationary front
thats extends from 31N47W SW to 23N60W to the Windward Passage.
Winds are moderate to fresh from the east S of 25N with moderate
seas to 7 ft. Long-period NW swell with 8-13 ft seas continue to
propagate across the central Atlantic subtropical waters in the
wake of the front. Scattered showers associated with the front are
affecting the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure dominate the
eastern subtropical waters where winds are light to gentle and
seas are moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will continue to
stall while weakening and merge with a reinforcing cold front
tonight into Tue. Rough seas to 12 ft in long period NW swell in
the wake of the front will shift east of the area on Tue. An area
of low pressure will develop near the southern Bahamas tonight
into early Tue. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure to the north will support fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central and southern Bahamas
tonight through Tue. The low pressure will stall over that region
and then open into a surface trough Wed while shifting westward to
eastern Cuba through Thu. The next cold front will enter the NE
Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of
the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to
the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri and reach from
31N68W to the northern Bahamas to south Florida Fri night.

$$
Ramos