353
AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0556 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1009 mb low near
10.6N39W, is associated with a low-latitude tropical wave. Shower
and thunderstorms are becoming better organized within 160 nm of
the low pressure. Peak winds to 25 kt and seas to 10 ft are found
within 180 nm north of the low. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for continued development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while
it moves quickly west- northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests
there should continue to monitor its progress.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

In addition to the tropical wave associated with AL95, an
Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 21N southward, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.

Another tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 62.5W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 16N to 20N between 60W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 14.5N17W and
continues southwestward to 10N30W then westward to a 1009 mb low
pressure located near 10.6N39W (AL95). Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 14W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the southwest
Gulf associated with a trough in the area. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is found along the western coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the Bay of Campeche associated with
another trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today, and some slow
development is possible before it moves inland by the middle of
the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty
winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds are noted over the eastern Gulf and north of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in these areas are 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail across the Gulf with
seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build modestly across the Gulf basin throughout the week. Moderate
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through
late Tue, becoming moderate NE to E through the remainder of the
week. Occasional locally fresh winds are expected in the
northeastern Gulf. A trough of low pressure currently moving
westward across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to emerge into
the Bay of Campeche during the day on Tuesday. The system is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche
before it moves inland across Mexico by the middle of this week.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty
winds are likely across the waters N of the Yucatan Peninsula and
the SW Gulf during the next few days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
the medium range forecast for Invest AL95.

Trade winds convergence is supporting isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean from Panama to eastern
Honduras. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are noted over the
Gulf of Honduras and south of Cuba in association to a trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms are also active
across the northeast Caribbean in association to an upper level
trough. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are
noted over the Gulf of Honduras following the aforementioned
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate trade winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except for areas of 5 to 7
ft combined seas in the eastern Caribbean downstream of where
large northerly swell from the Atlantic is penetrating through the
Mona, Anegada, and Guadeloupe Passages. Moderate to rough
combined seas are also noted on the Atlantic exposures of the
Leeward Islands due to the N to NE swell.

For the forecast, rough seas in N to NE swell over the tropical
Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will continue
to gradually subside through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds
will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, each night through the
middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active
across the northwestern Caribbean through Tue night. The area of
low pressure, AL95, located over the tropical central Atlantic is
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for slow development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple
of days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and
interests there should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas across the
tropical Atlantic waters with this system by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front extends from 31N40W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along
and generally north of the front, and also across much of the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas are analyzed
north of the front, mainly west of 60W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is ongoing from 16N to 23N between 55W
and 60W in association to a surface trough.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N,
centered on 1025 mb high near 33N21W. The associated pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures both in the
tropics and over Africa resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from
15N to 27N and east of 22W. Seas are 7-10 ft in this region. Much
of the remaining tropical Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NE swell across
the regional waters will continue to gradually subside from north
to south over the Atlantic waters through Tue night. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front,
extending from the central Atlantic near 28N55W to 25N67W then
through the NW Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast, through late
Tue. Winds will diminish midweek as the front drifts northward and
dissipates. The area of low pressure, AL95, located over the
tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for slow
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days while it moves quickly west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is
expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Thursday and Friday, and interests there should monitor its
progress. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds
and seas over the SE forecast zones with this system by the end of
the week.$$ KRV