782
AXNT20 KNHC 071031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Sep 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N to 15N between 39W and 46W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from eastern Cuba to
around 10N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from Jamaica southward into Colombia, from
about 75W to 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritian
near 19N16W and curves southwest to 10N30W, then continues
westward to 09N49W. An ITCZ continues from 09N49W to 10N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 18W
and 34W and from 09N to 12N between 49W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from near Apalachicola,
Florida to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of this front within about 90 nm of the
western Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. To the southeast, a
surface trough stretches from just north of Tampa Bay to a 1012 mb
low near 27N85W to 26N92W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring between the low and the southwest coast of Florida.
Winds across the basin are mainly light to gentle, with seas of 2
ft or less, except for 2 to 3 ft in the Bay of Campeche, where
winds earlier in the night were stronger.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf
today, then stall and replace the aforementioned trough through
early week. North of the stalled front, some showers and
thunderstorms as well as moderate to locally fresh NE winds can be
expected. Otherwise, gentle winds and slight seas will prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on convection
in the western basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the south-central basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate elsewhere, except
for waters N of 20N and S of 11N, where winds are light to gentle
are seas are  3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and Colombian low this week will support moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, with
gentle winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail.
A tropical wave is likely to move into the eastern Caribbean Tue
into Wed, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Converging low-level winds and a mid to upper level trough
offshore Florida are leading to scattered moderate convection N of
the Bahamas and W of 76W. To the southeast, another trough is
leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
22N to 28N between 66W and 72W. The remaining convection in the
basin is being caused by a tropical wave or the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, and is described in the above sections.

East of 70W, widespread moderate to locally fresh E winds
dominate as the basin remains south of an expansive north Atlantic
high pressure. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in a zone from 15N to
25N between 40W and 50W. To the west of 70W, gentle southerly
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off NE
Florida tonight then stall over the far NW waters Mon into mid-
week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally
hazardous winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of
the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will
dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

$$
Konarik