353
AXNT20 KNHC 222336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States,
north of 30N between 70W and 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing
cold front that is quickly moving across the waters N and NE of
the Bahamas through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur
north of 30N tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany
these winds, north of 28N between 77W and 60W. Long-period N
swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of
25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this
weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week
east of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the
Atlantic near 08N13W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 45W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extending from the Florida Keys westward
to near 24N90W. Fresh NW to N winds are occurring behind this
front and E of 90W. Light to gentle winds are occurring
elsewhere. Moderate seas are observed across the majority of the
Gulf, while the NW Gulf is seeing slight seas.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front extending from the
Florida Keys westward to near 24N90w will shift south of the basin
this evening. Fresh northwest to north winds behind the front
over the NE Gulf will change little through tonight, then diminish
to gentle speeds Sat. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the
western Gulf will shift eastward through the weekend, with winds
elsewhere across the basin diminishing to light to gentle speeds.
The high pressure will be centered over the NE Gulf early next
week, with moderate to fresh southerly winds developing over the
western Gulf starting late Sat and continue through early Mon. A
weak cold front may move into the far western Gulf early next
week, then stall and weaken. A return of moderate to fresh
southerly winds is expected again over the western Gulf Tue night
through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extending from eastern Cuba to just west
of Jamaica and to near the border between Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean
in the vicinity of the front, and the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough, generally south of 13N. Another area
of scattered moderate convection is occurring between 66W and
72W in association with a developing surface trough along 72W.
Fresh to strong N to NW winds and moderate seas are occurring
behind the front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean
west of 80W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of
the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall tonight, then weaken
and dissipate during the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds are
behind the front with seas to 8 ft. These conditions will
gradually diminish through Sun. A tightening pressure gradient
between developing low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and
high pressure building over the southeastern United States will
promote fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages and in the lee of
Cuba on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas
in E swell will develop across much of the basin Sun into the
middle of next week. The surface trough along 72W is forecast to
reach the western Caribbean by Sun and stall into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N65W to 21N75W. Fresh to
strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are occurring
along and ahead of this front, generally north of 26N. A few
showers are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front
is moving across the region from 31N70W to 25N80W. Recent
scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force NW winds
and rough seas occurring behind this front. To the east, a
surface trough is analyzed over the northern Lesser Antilles from
17N62W to 26N57W with scattered showers. Another trough, analyzed
from 23N50W to 31N31W, is leading to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along and to the east of the trough. NW
swell behind this trough is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of
28N between 40W and 55W. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters with gentle to moderate
trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing front will merge
with the first front from near 31N64W to 26N69W and to near the
Windward Passage by late tonight, at which time the gale
conditions are expected to diminish. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are
expected with the gale force winds behind the fronts, and seas of
8 to 12 ft will be elsewhere N and NE of the Bahamas through late
tonight. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough
seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. The rough seas will
shift eastward through this weekend, reaching to E of 60W from Tue
through Wed night.

$$
ERA