759
AXNT20 KNHC 020956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 70w/71W south of 22N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
15N to 28N between 67W and 73W, enhance somewhat by a stationary
front located just to the NW-N of the tropical wave in the SW N
Atlantic waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of
Mauritania and Senegal at 16N16W and continues southwestward to
near 10N23.5W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 10N23.5W to just NE
of the coast of Brazil and French Guiana at 05.5N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 18N, and E of 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary/trough extends from near S Louisiana to near
Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the NW and N-Central Gulf N of 24N and W of 89W as depicted on
conventional satellite imagery. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of
the boudary per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data and in-situ
observations. Seas are 3-5 ft N of the boundary. Mainly gentle to
moderate easterly winds and 1-3 ft seas are elsewhere in the basin
and ahead of the boundary.

For the forecast, the front will shift ESE today, reaching from
the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico later this morning, then
from near Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early
Mon, clearing the basin Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds
and moderate to locally rough will follow the front through Mon
night. High pressure will then follow the front supporting a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow by the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean at 70W/71W including associated active convection.

A surface trough extends from near the Cayman Islands to offshore
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the trough axis, particularly from 18N to 21.5N between 78W
and 81W, and from 09N to 16.5N between 77.5W and 83.5W enhanced in
the SW Caribbean due to the monsoon trough extending from the NE
Pacific Ocean. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are
noted over the Caribbean E of the wave axis, with moderate to
fresh NE-E winds and 4-6 ft seas from 11N to 18N between the wave
and 79W, and mainly gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger through this
morning with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds just W of it.
Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are in the wake of a
tropical wave, currently moving across the eastern Caribbean, with
axis near 71W. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean
today as the wave continues to move westward through Mon. Moderate
to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. A cold
front will to move across the NW Caribbean by Mon night into early
Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave is expected to merge
with the frontal boundary or dissipate.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 29N55W to the Central Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the
boundary as described with the tropical wave discussed above.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are just W of the boundary,
with moderate to fresh SE winds S of 24N and E of the front to
60W. A weak ridge is to the ESE from 31N41W to 27N63W with gentle
anticyclonic winds underneath it. A 1012 mb low pressure area is
noted near 31N28.5W with a cold front arcing around it from 31N26W
to 19N38W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 510 nm
in the SE semicircle of the low as depicted on METEOSAT-10
infrared satellite imagery. Fresh to strong N winds are N of 29N
and W of the low to 33W, with fresh to strong S-SW winds N of 23N
within 180-240 nm ahead of the front. Associated 8-14 ft seas are
found N of 23N between 20W and 45W. Moderate to fresh trades are S
of 23N/24N and W of 48W with 6-8 ft seas. Mainly moderate or
weaker winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except lower 3-5
ft seas N of 26N and W of 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
to a remnant trough and shift westward through Mon. Rough seas N
of 29N and E of 60W will shift E through early Mon. A cold front
is forecast to impact the region early next week, slowly shifting
SE and reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front through late Tue, while rough
seas persist in its wake through midweek. The front will then
weaken and wash out through midweek with improving marine
conditions.

$$
Lewitsky