030
AXNT20 KNHC 300433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 15N and between 25W and 35W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the wave
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at
this time in association with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are evident near the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W to
07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N and
between 35W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough over the Gulf waters support scattered
showers over the western Gulf. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident in the Apalachee Bay area. A weak
pressure gradient sustains light to gentle winds and slight seas
across the basin. However, mariners should expect stronger winds
and higher seas near the strongest convection.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture sustain a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NW and SW Caribbean waters. Drier
conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. The
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in northern South America force fresh
to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally rough seas are noted in these waters.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh
winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with
winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally
moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to
move through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat
and through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun,
reaching the central Caribbean late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N
and between 55W and 65W. Similar convection is noted off eastern
Cuba. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is dominated
by a weak subtropical ridge.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of an
expansive subtropical ridge centered near 45N21W. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
sustain moderate to fresh N-NE winds and moderate seas north of
20N and east of 35W. Mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate
seas are occurring south of 25N and west of 35W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast through the period,
supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may
bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of the
Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then possibly to the
waters between Hispaniola and the central Bahamas Sun and Sun
night.

$$
Delgado