792
AXNT20 KNHC 141740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 18.2N 44.9W at 1500 UTC
or 1200 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, all across the eastern
semicircle. Peak seas are around 18 ft (5.5 M) to the NE of
center. Vertical wind shear continues to negatively impact
Lorenzo, and the current structure appears poorly organized. Small
clusters of moderate to strong convection are over the center and
extend to 240 nm over the southeastern semicircle. Lorenzo is
moving toward the NW and a turn to the north is expected later
today or tonight. A northeastward motion is then expected on
Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in strength is forecast over
the next few days, and Lorenzo may remain a lopsided storm, with
all of the strongest winds remaining on its eastern side.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along
22W/23W, south of 15N, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 14N and
between 20W and 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 02.5N to 09.5N and between 31W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W/57W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11.5N to 14.5N and between 55W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13.5W and continues southwestward to 07.5N17W and
to 10N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N34W to 06.5N37W to 09N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between
10W and 20W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Fair weather prevails over the Gulf basin today as weak high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley extends into the north-
central basin. The tail end of a weak cold front has moved through
south Florida and extends from across the Florida Keys to 25N85W
to just offshore of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A few small clusters
of moderate convection are noted along the front to the W of the
Keys. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the
front to 26N and into the Bay of Campeche, where seas are

Louisiana supports moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds
and seas of 3-5 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. North of 26N
gentle easterly winds prevail, with seas less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region
through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central
Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens
some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the
end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front
will reach the northern Gulf waters on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layered troughing across the southeastern Gulf is combining
with in inverted low level trough across the northwest Caribbean
to produce scattered moderate convection from 13.5N to 21N
between 76W and 86W. Small scattered showers dot the waters north
of 15N between 68W and 76W. Scattered moderate convection is also
occurring across the southeast basin, south of 13N and into
coastal Venezuela, east of 65W and across the southern Windward
Islands. Broad low pressure continues of the Caribbean Basin west
of 75W, producing cyclonic flow, while gentle to moderate easterly
winds are seen E of 75W. Seas are 3-4 ft to the E of 75W and 3 ft
or less W of 75W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending over the far SE Gulf of America
and the Yucatan Channel will move across Cuba and the NW Caribbean
today through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected in the wake of the front. Unsettled weather
conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin
through the work week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

An extratropical cyclone off the Carolinas extends a cold front
through the NW Bahamas, across the Florida Keys, and into the SE
Gulf of America. Scattered light to moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm ahead of this boundary. Fresh NW winds and rough
seas to 8 ft are found N of 29N and between 72W and 78W. Moderate
to fresh SW to W winds and moderate winds are occurring east of
the front, north of 28N and between 64W and 71W. Meanwhile,
moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are present
south of 21N and between 50W and 75W, to the west of Lorenzo.
Farther northeast, a 1006 mb low pressure near 29.5N53W extends a
surface trough to 25N58W. Scattered moderate convection is found
ahead of the trough. Fresh to locally strong cyclonic winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 26N and between 50W and 57W.
The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a
weak high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto
Rico, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas.

Outside of Lorenzo, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic
waters are also under the influence of a relaxed gradient as
multiple storm systems transit eastward across the midlatitudes.
In general, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate
these waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE
across the forecast waters through the week. The front will reach
from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to
central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by
Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on
either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by tonight.
These marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through
late in the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is well east
of the area near 18.2N 44.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving
northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Lorenzo is
expected to remain east of 50W during the next several days.

$$
Stripling