985
AXNT20 KNHC 261040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 25W,
from 17N southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 14N to 17N between 47W and 50W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W, from 19N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 12N to 16N between 55W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 19N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
17N to 19N between 70W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
14N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N50W to 10N55W.
Convection is described above in the Tropical Wave section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper trough extends across the western Gulf, supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Bay of
Campeche and the south-central Gulf. High pressure off the east
coast of Florida in the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to
fresh winds across the Straits of Florida, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are active over the Bay
of Campeche. Light to gentle E to SE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the
middle of next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1009 mb low over
northern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is leading to
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean and
through the Windward Passage. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found across
these waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also found across
the west-central through northwestern basin with seas of 4 to 6
ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted
downwind of the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean.
Numerous moderate to locally strong convection is occurring in the
northwestern part of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds
in the Windward Passage are expected into Sun. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front in the central Atlantic is dissipating south of
Bermuda. A few thunderstorms are active along a trough parallel to
this front, reaching from 30N50W to 26N60W to 27N70W. Broad high
pressure dominates the remainder of the region north of 20N, with
the tropical waves described above covering the tropical Atlantic
region. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
north of 25N between 45W and 55W, between the frontal boundary and
high pressure centered over the Azores. Fresh to locally strong E
winds are noted off the northern coast of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere north of
20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are active
across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds north of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with mostly
moderate seas are expected.

$$
Christensen