089
AXNT20 KNHC 070339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
present near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
near this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong occurring south of 13N and west of 79W in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 07N43W and then from 07N46W to
near 05N53W. No significant convection is evident near the monsoon
trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE
Gulf waters, while some storms are approaching the Florida Gulf
coast north of Tampa. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, storms
that developed over the western Yucatan peninsula are moving
westward at 25-30 kt. Mariners in the area are urged to use
caution. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the
central Gulf and the thermal trough over western Yucatan support
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the eastern
half of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin
through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. The
pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds and
slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh
with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the
evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the
peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the
islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central and eastern
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and
highest seas are found off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. An upper level low in the central Caribbean and diurnal
heating combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Cuba and nearby waters. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms also dot the NE and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The
gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader
area of strong winds, and locally near- gale force, with rough
seas, Mon through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough over the western Atlantic and ample deep
atmospheric moisture and instability support numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the SW North Atlantic, especially north of 23N
and west of 55W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
noted north of 25N and between 50W and 70W.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N52W.
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are
present south of 24N and between 30W and 70W. A stronger pressure
gradient in the far eastern Atlantic sustains fresh to strong
northerly winds and rough seas north of 20N and east of 25W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida
will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early
next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient
across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front approaching the
northern waters will stall near 31N through mid week before
lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active
across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue.

$$
Delgado