674
AXNT20 KNHC 242133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Long period NW swell associated with a pair of cold fronts over
the SW Atlantic subtropical waters is producing rough to very
rough seas of 12 to 15 ft over the waters N of 28.5N between 55W
and 65W. A new set of NW long period swell will enter the north-
central subtropical waters Mon night and will maintain the rough
to very rough seas higher than 12 ft through Wed night. These
conditions will then shift over the NE subtropical waters before
subsiding Thu night into Fri.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the
Atlantic near 06N10W and continues westward to near 07N43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 11N between 31W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high over the Florida panhandle. Gentle to moderate southerly
return flow is west of 93W, where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.
Light winds are over the NE Gulf, in the vicinity of the high
center. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will persist over the western Gulf through Mon before
diminishing briefly. A weak cold front will move off the coast of
Texas Mon night into Tue, extend along the northern Gulf through
Wed, then lift N ahead of another cold front forecast to enter the
Gulf waters late on Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
once again develop over the western Gulf on Wed ahead of the
second front, which will reach from N Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. The front will exit the basin on Sat.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this
front. Winds may briefly reach minimal gale force near the
Veracruz area on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to the SW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered over the SW Caribbean
near 10N78W, with a 1022 mb high centered near 28N72W. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, over the waters S of Hispaniola
and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are
elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 3-4 ft, are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between
developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure
building N of area, over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong NE to
E winds across the central Caribbean through Mon. Gentle to
moderate winds are forecast basin-wide the remainder forecast
period, except in the lee of eastern Cuba where fresh to locally
strong NE winds are predicted beginning on Tue as a trough or low
pressure develops in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
long period NW swell event in the Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to just N of Haiti, with a
reinforcing cold front stretching from 31N51W to 27N75W. A 1022
mb high is building W of the fronts and is centered near 28N72W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with
moderate to fresh winds south of the area of high pressure.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of the cold fronts. Aside
from the rough to very rough seas described in the Special
Features section above, seas W of the front are in the 8-12 ft
range N of 26N and W of the front to 70W. Seas elsewhere W of the
front are in the 6-8 ft range, except over the far NW waters,
where seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

Farther east, a 1020 mb high is centered near 27N44W. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of this high center. A cold front
is over the far eastern Atlantic, entering the discussion waters
near 31N16W and extending SW to near 25N33W. A pre-frontal trough
is SE of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and this cold front is supporting gentle to moderate
winds over the eastern Atlantic waters N of 20N. Seas of 6-9 ft
are N of 27N and W of the front to 33W. Elsewhere N of 20N, seas
of 4-6 ft prevail. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of
5-7 ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold fronts will merge, with
the merged front moving across the SE waters through Mon when it
is forecast to stall along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong W to NW winds
and rough to very rough seas will follow the front N of 29N. These
marine conditions will gradually shift eastward on Mon. A trough
or low pressure will develop near the Turks and Caicos Islands
early on Tue. The pressure gradient between the trough and high
pressure to the W will support fresh to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas across the waters S of 25N and W of the trough axis
to the coast of eastern Cuba, including the SE Bahamas. Then, the
trough/low will stall in the SE Bahamas offshore waters trough
Wed, with winds and seas diminishing. The next cold front will
enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and
lifting N of the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast
to move to the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either
side of the front.

$$
AL