721
AXNT20 KNHC 241635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from
05N-20N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from
07N-18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 17N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in association with the wave today.

A new tropical wave has formed in the W Caribbean at 84W from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W southwest to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from
06N30W to 09N49W, where it breaks for a tropical wave. The ITCZ
resumes at 09N53W then to 08N60W along coastal Venezuela. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W. Isolated
moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the N Gulf near 29N88W.
Winds across the Gulf are generally light to moderate except for
isolated strong E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2-4 ft.
Isolated moderate convection is occurring over the Straits of
Florida this afternoon.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift to
the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to
gentle wind flow across the basin into the early part of next
week, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between low pressure over northern
South America and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh
to strong trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N
west of 76W associated with a tropical wave. Additionally, an
upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of
19N west of 85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and
possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area along with lower
pressure over the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is forcing only
moderate to isolated fresh trades west of 30W with seas of 4-7 ft.
A larger pressure gradient farther east is forcing fresh to
locally strong NE winds with seas 7-9 ft north of 20N east of
30W. An upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection
north of 24N between 61W-78W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough off the east coast of
Florida will drift west into the peninsula today. Scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the trough across the Bahamas. Fresh
trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Moderate or weaker
winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. A cold
front may approach the waters east of northern Florida late this
weekend and stall, preceded by fresh southwest winds north of
about 28N and east of 75W through mid week.

$$
Landsea