319
AXNT20 KNHC 031751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
centered near 35N27W and lower pressures over the Mediterranean
Sea will support NE winds gusting to gale force offshore the
Moroccan coast near Agadir. Accordingly, Meteo-France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 03/15 UTC to 04/00 UTC. For
more information, please visit Meteo-France`s website at:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ stretches from
04N22W to 02.5N35W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to 24N87W,
where it becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found behind the
front, while light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail ahead
of the front. A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf,
paralleling the TX coast and extending southward to near 23.5N96W.
Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough
axis.

For the forecast, the cold front will slow down today, while the
stationary front lifts northward as another low pressure system
forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds will develop this afternoon in W Gulf and spread
eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the
NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico Fri morning, then stall and gradually dissipate. Looking
ahead, a strong cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf late
Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over and just W of the Lesser
Antilles, and is generating a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong E
winds are observed in the strongest convection, per a pair of
recent Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes. Outside of
convection, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist
offshore NW Colombia, driven by the pressure gradient between
higher pressures north of the region and lower pressures over
South America. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. A surface trough, located near 62W, will continue to
move westward across the eastern Caribbean through tonight before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas follow
this trough. The associated moisture is producing some shower
activity and isolated thunderstorms across much of the Lesser
Antilles. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to near Vero Beach, Florida.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-8 ft seas are about 150
nm east of the front, with moderate or weaker NW winds and
moderate seas behind the front. No significant convection is
occurring with the frontal passage. Farther east, a surface trough
is analyzed from 25N61W to 20N60W, and is leading to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring near the trough axis.
In the east Atlantic, an upper level trough off the W coast of
Africa is supporting a large area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 10N to 20N and E of 30W.

Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from a 1031 mb high near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between
this high and lower pressures in the tropics result in fresh to
strong E to NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft occurring across much of
the Atlantic between 10N and 30N and E of 60W. The two exceptions
are near the Cabo Verde Islands and a region N of 24N between 40W
and 55W where moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere
across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N71W to
near Vero Beach, Florida. The front will extend from near Bermuda
to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N68W to central
Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri
morning while dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach
the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in fresh to locally strong
winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri afternoon. These winds and
locally rough seas will then shift eastward into the weekend.

$$
Adams