631
AXNT20 KNHC 241623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 26W, from 00N to 15N, moving west at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave
from 04N to 09N between 21W and 28W.

A tropical wave is along 53W, from 00N to 15N, moving west at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 50W
and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W
and extends southwestward to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W
to 05N25W. The ITCZ resumes at 05N29W and continues to 03N51W.
Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1020 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf provides light to
gentle SE to S winds across the Gulf, pulsing to moderate speeds
in the W Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support moderate
to fresh SE wind across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh NE to
E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening through Wed night as a trough develops
inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at
night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to
maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and
western Gulf through the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near-gale force trades continue in the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with 8-12 ft seas. Trades are
fresh to strong elsewhere in the central basin, with 5-7 ft seas.
These pulsing winds are a result of the pressure gradient between
the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over
Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are analyzed in the E
Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas. 3-5 ft seas and moderate trades are
in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 12 ft
in the central and portions of the south-central Caribbean through
Wed night. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at
night through Sun. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the
majority of the remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave
will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sun, thus enhancing
the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters mainly east
of the Windward Islands through Mon. The wave is forecast to move
across Puerto Rico by Sun evening and across Hispaniola Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves.

The subtropical Atlantic high pressure continues to dominate the
tropical Atlantic waters. Light to gentle trades are north of 23N.
Gentle to moderate trades are south of 23N across the basin. The
exception is from 06N to 16N west of 42W to the Lesser Antilles,
where trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4-7 ft across open
waters, increase to 8 ft locally in the area of fresh winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
continue to build westward today as a surface trough just SE of
Bermuda continues to weaken. The ridge will then stay in place
through the middle of next week, supporting moderate to fresh
winds south of 25N, except for locally strong winds just north of
Hispaniola pulsing tonight and Sun night. Otherwise, a series of
weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda today and then again Mon through
Wed.

$$
Mahoney