538
AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf later today and sweep over the basin early this
week. Gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz
Mon afternoon and evening, and will be accompanied by rough seas
peaking near 11 ft. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and
rough seas will occur over much of the Gulf into early Tue. Winds
and seas are expected to diminish from northwest to southeast Tue
into Wed as the front weakens and stalls.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06.5N11W and extends
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 04N22W to 04N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N east of
19W, and from 02N to 09N between 26N and 37W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A warm front extends over the northern Gulf from west-central
Florida near 27N82.5W to 27N95W. Scattered showers are occurring
near and to the north of this front, and gusty and erratic winds
and rapidly building seas are expected near this activity.
Moderate to fresh, with pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds
are occurring north of this front as observed via recent
scatterometer satellite data. South of the front, scatterometer
data show moderate S to SW winds and slight to moderate seas over
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, an old frontal boundary extending from Florida
to offshore of SE Texas has begun to drift northward as a warm
front. Scattered showers continue north of the boundary. Moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across
the basin through this evening as the front weakens and drifts
northward. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
tonight and overtake the current front, while sweeping across the
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds
and building seas in the wake of this front. Gale-force NW to N
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon evening
through midnight. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida,
and high pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas will persist late Wed through the end of
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted on
recent scatterometer data across the Caribbean Sea and through the
Atlantic Passages, as the pressure gradient prevails between a
1010 mb low centered over the south-central basin and ridging to
the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas to 8 ft are
occurring offshore of northwestern Colombia. Rough seas of 8 to 9
ft in E swell continue over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
and through the passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
prevail over the southwestern basin and in the Gulf of Honduras,
supported by a weak surface trough and low-level moisture in the
region.

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the basin along
about 25N will support moderate to fresh E trade winds and
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE
swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and
passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida
through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of
America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66.5W southwestward to 28N77W, where
it becomes stationary and continues through central Florida.
Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally fresh
N to NE winds are occurring north of the front. No significant
convection is noted near these fronts. Farther east, a surface
trough has been analyzed from 30N41W to 27N49W. Scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring near the trough,
with locally strong winds noted near 29N. A large NW swell is
supporting rough seas over the central Atlantic near this feature
generally north of 26N and east of 55W, stemming from a complex
and strong low pressure system centered well north of the area.
Ridging extends over much of the rest of the Atlantic, from a 1022
mb high centered near 28N24W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6
to 9 ft seas prevail south of 20N, with light to gentle winds and
5 to 7 ft seas noted along the ridge axis to 25N.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will shift quickly eastward today with the
aforementioned cold front, before it dissipates this evening. A
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move into
the northwestern tropical Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting
widespread strong to near gale-force winds N of 27N, and building
seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of
Florida Tue morning, then gradually weaken and stall along about
26N early Wed. Large N swell will move into the regional waters
Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$
ADAMS