429
AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and
extends southwestward to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W
to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil at 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from 06S to 05N between 12W and 31W, and
from 01S to 04N between 01W and 12W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface ridge extends from the SW N Atlantic waters to just
east of 90W while a broad area of low pressure centered by a 996
mb low over east-central Mexico covers the western half of the
basin. The resultant pressure gradient between these two features
is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds W of 88W and gentle
to moderate SE winds elsewhere. In the northern Gulf, a stationary
front extending from SE Georgia to southern Louisiana to southern
Texas is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms mainly over
the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to Houston, Texas.  the Gulf
of HondurasSeas are 5 to 7 ft W of 88W and 2 to 5 ft E of 88W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the SE United States and low pressure over Mexico will
support fresh to locally strong winds over the W half of the
basin. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will
weaken across the basin Thu as the next front approaches. The
front will reach across the western zones Thu night, from SE
Louisiana to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri, from the western
Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat,
then from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating
hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the
lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low presure SSE of Bermuda is allowing the
continuation of a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean,
which is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds across most
of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh winds near the Gulf
of Honduras, through the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 5 to 6 ft
in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, isolated showers are occurring
over the NE Caribbean due to the proximity of a surface trough
from the east.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds
nightly tonight through Fri night. Unsettled weather is expected
to continue over the eastern Caribbean through mid-week. Winds
will pulse to fresh nightly near the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the
remainder of the basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N
Atlantic, before increasing slightly this weekend. Winds will
start to increase to fresh in the central Caribbean and off
Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong Sat through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a low centered near 26N64.5W with
associated trough and high pressure centered over the central
Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas north and northeast of the low. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are also associated with the low and
affecting mainly the waters N of 25N between 59W and 66W. Another
surface trough E of the Leeward Islands is supporting similar
shower activity from 15N to 23N between 51W and 60W. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and eastern
subtropical waters with a weakening stationary front intersecting
the ridge from 31N19W to 22N35W to 25N50W. Aside from the area of
low pressure SSE of Bermuda mentioned above, winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere, and seas are moderate as well.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
low and surface trough will gradually shift westward through mid-
week as both drift westward. Winds and seas will start to
decrease Wed night as the low and trough start to weaken. A
stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S.
coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through
mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the
week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Ramos