405
AXNT20 KNHC 201028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas
for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0000 UTC. Please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo- France at
website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W, then curves
southwestward to 02N23W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
02N23W to around 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up
to 180 nm N of the ITCZ west of 33W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is present south of the monsoon trough
off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough has sagged a
bit farther south early this morning and associated convection has
now moved S and W of the far SW Caribbean.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge of high pressure extends southwestward from
northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, mainly
fresh to strong E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail, with the
highest winds over the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered offshore the SE United States and low pressure over
Texas will lead to fresh to strong SE winds over much of the
Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas.
Conditions will start to improve Tue as the gradient weakens, but
pulses of strong SE winds will depart the NW Yucatan Peninsula
nightly as a diurnal trough moves into the waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with the tail of a surface trough extending
through the northern Leeward Islands has diminished early this
morning. A 1030 mb Bermuda High sustains trade winds across much
of the basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6
ft are seen at the eastern basin. Strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft
seas are evident in the central basin and near the Windward
Passage. Mainly fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure N of the region
will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds across the
central and western Caribbean through Mon night before the high
weakens and winds diminish diminishing through the middle of the
week. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada
passages, before gradually subside through the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about gale winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1021 mb low
pressure near 31N57W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate
convection noted within 120 nm E of the trough. The tight pressure
gradient between these features and the Bermuda high is resulting
in fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft between 55W and
70W, as well as S of the Bahamas/25N. To the N of 25N and W of
70W, Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.
Farther east, widespread fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 9 prevail
over much of the central and eastern tropical and subtropical
waters, as they are dominated by flow from a strong high pressure
centered N of the region near The Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned pressure
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas into Mon for Atlantic waters E of 70W, as well as S of
25W, including the the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The trough
will weaken by Tue, leading to improving conditions into the
middle of the week.

$$
Konarik