452
FNUS73 KARX 031336
FWSARX

Spot Forecast for Cambrian Overlook...Wisconsin DNR
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
836 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on October 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (608) 784-8292 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds at the fire site will tend to be 5 to 10 mph out of the
north-northeast today, around 5 mph out of the north tonight, and
around 5 to 10 mph out of the northeast tomorrow. RH values will
fall to the 25-30 percent range each of the next two afternoons
with overnight recover to 75 to 80 percent.

Primary source of uncertainty is the potential for a stray light
shower this evening into tonight. While peak chances of 30 percent
look to occur after 10 PM, a shower nearer to sunset during the 6
to 8 pm time frame cannot be ruled out (10% chance). If a shower
did manage to develop nearer to sunset, erratic winds could occur.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................39 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 4 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    northeast 5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3700 ft AGL
                    increasing to 5100 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /40800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  20  18  18  15  14  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  69  72  73  73  74  73
RH..............39  37  31  29  30  27  29
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.2
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   7   8   9   9
Haines index....5   5   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100013  18  22  25  32  41  33

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    sprinkles late in the evening. Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the late evening and overnight,
                    then chance of sprinkles after 3 am.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the late
                    evening and overnight, then decreasing to 10
                    percent after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39  52  63  72  83  80  77  73  67  58  51  39
Weather cov.....            CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  0
Temp............70  65  59  58  57  57  56  55  54  53  51  49
RH..............32  41  53  57  59  64  64  69  69  69  72  73
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   4   4   5   6   6   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.11  9   11  11  12  13  13  13  14  12  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.9   10  9   10  12  14  15  12  9   8   9   9
Haines index....6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   4   4   4   5   6   11  5   4   3   4   4

$$
Forecaster...AF
Requested by...Nick Morehouse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423509.0/ARX
.DELDT 10/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nicholas.morehouse@wisconsin.gov