821
FXUS63 KARX 111127
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected today. Then warming trend
  Wednesday into Thursday.

- Unsettled weather this weekend with strong storm system moving
  into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Rain is likely (70-100%)
  with a few thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains in whether
  severe storms will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today through Thursday night

Latest 07z surface analysis indicates weak cold front extending from
eastern Wisconsin into southern Iowa and surface ridge over Northern
Plain states. Behind the cold front temperatures were cooling down
into the lower 40s to lower 30s per latest metars over central
Minnesota. Surface ridge will build over the forecast area today.
Subsidence underneath surface ridge will provide mostly sunny skies.
With the northerly flow behind the front...cooler airmass will
advect into the area and the latest 11.00z GFS/NAM show 925mb
temperatures cooling to plus 1 to minus 4 degrees celsius by 18z
today. High temperatures will rise into the 40s.

Temperatures will gradually warm Wednesday into Thursday and remain
above normal both days. The 11.00z NAEFS indicate standard anomalies
of plus 1 to plus 2 degrees across the forecast area and the 11.00z
GFS/NAM 925mb temperatures warm to plus 4 to plus 10 degrees
celsius. High temperatures will climb into the 50s to middle 60s
both days.


Friday through Monday

Main forecast concerns Friday through Monday is the upper level
closed low tracking into the Central Plains states/Upper Great Lakes
region Friday into Saturday. The latest 10.00z
deterministic/ensembles continue to show upper level closed/surface
low deepening over the Central Plains/Upper Great Lakes region
Friday into Saturday. At this time...forecast area remains in the
warm sector of the storm system. The question still remains as to
how much instability builds across the forecast area Friday
afternoon/evening to allow for any strong to severe storms across
the forecast area. However...Band of rain/isolated storms are
expected to move across the forecast area late Friday afternoon into
Friday night. On the backside of upper level closed/surface low
Saturday...colder air filters into the forecast area. Any residual
precipitation remaining will transition over to all snow. With the
cooler air moving into the region...temperatures will cool down into
the 30s for Sunday and rebound slightly Monday in the 40s to around
50.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions remain through the TAF period. Gusty north winds
will remain through the morning in the wake of a cold front that
passed through the area earlier in the night. Wind gusts of 20
to 30 mph will be possible. Wind speeds decrease from north to
south during the morning hours and the wind direction shifts
more northeasterly. Light southeast winds return for the
overnight. Some mid-level (10 to 15kft) clouds are around this
morning then during the afternoon high-level (20kft) clouds move
into the area.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...Cecava