618
FXUS63 KARX 231048
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small shower chances (10 to 20%) linger through the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures into midweek with highs in the 60s to low
  70s. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today-Tuesday: Unseasonably Cool with Showers Possible

A cold front continues to make its way southeastward across the
region. This front should be clear of the CWA by mid morning. Ahead
of the front, dewpoints remain in the mid 60s while behind the
front dewpoints are already in the 50s. They are expected to
remain in the 50s and get into the 40s at least through midweek.
In the upper levels, a longwave trough positions itself in the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This will bring much cooler air
down into these regions. Compared to the previous forecast, the
next set of models have brought temperatures slightly cooler
with the interquartile range of the grand ensemble
(GEFS/EPS/CMCE) showing high temperatures ranging from the low
60s to near 70F. EFI values of
-0.7 to -0.9 are across our CWA indicating that temperatures
are on the lower end of the climatological normal for this time
of year.

With northwest flow aloft and embedded shortwaves moving through
over the next few days, showers will be possible during the
afternoons and evenings. CAMs all show showers popping up over the
next couple of days with some differences in the coverage and
duration of these showers. Have gone ahead and put low end PoPs
across portions of the CWA for today and Sunday. Overall, Sunday
looks to have better potential for scattered showers to occur with
more forcing moving through the region compared to today.

Wednesday-Saturday: Gradual Warmup, More Rain Chances?

From the midweek to the weekend, ensemble and deterministic guidance
continues to favor the longwave trough slowly shifting east with
some upper level ridging attempting to build in. Temperatures return
to the mid and upper 70s based on latest NBM. There is also
increasing confidence that a shortwave moves through Wednesday night
through Thursday and with it dewpoints increase back into the upper
50s and low 60s. PWATs also increase back above 1 inch. NBM PoPs
remain low, less than 15%, however the GEFS and EPS have around 25
to 40% of measurable rain occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A cold front
moved through earlier this morning shifting winds to the
northwest. These northwest winds will continue through the
forecast period with gusts today approaching 25mph with some
isolated gusts reaching 30mph. The stronger gusts will be west
of the Mississippi River. Low to mid level (4kft to 6kft)
clouds move in later this morning and linger into the evening.
There is a low chance (10 to 20%) that a rain shower will be
possible throughout the day.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Cecava