710
FXUS63 KARX 011741
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke is likely to persist into the weekend bringing
  hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and decreased air quality.

- Dry conditions remain through the weekend. Uncertainty in
  precipitation next week remains.

- Mild temperatures through the weekend before warming next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Persisting Smoke

High pressure continues southward today, settling over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley by the afternoon where it
stagnates as we head into the weekend. Given the west to
northwesterly flow aloft ushering wildfire smoke into the region
and broad subsidence associated with the high, vertically
integrated and near surface smoke should remain into the weekend
bringing hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and unhealthy air
quality to the region. The stagnant upper level and surface
pattern begin to break down Sunday with a flattening upper
ridge and eastward shifting surface high under more zonal flow.
This should allow for improvements to the smokey conditions
early next week.

Dry Conditions and Precipitation Uncertainty

Under the upper ridge and surface high pressure, dry conditions
are expected through the weekend. As the upper level pattern
begins to become more zonal early next week, various shortwave
troughs will propagate eastward across the United States,
although uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these
shortwaves and their influence on precipitation.

The 31.00z GEFS and ENS remain at odds for much of next week
regarding timing/location of precipitation. With the first of
several shortwaves, the GEFS continues to suggest rain could
return west of the Mississippi River as early as Monday, but has
trended westward with its probabilities over the last several
runs. This brings it more in line with the ENS and NBM, both of
which suggest dry solutions likely due to the remaining
influence of the departing high pressure and flattening ridge.

Both ensembles suggest showers/storms are possible by the
middle of the week associated with another shortwave, but the
GEFS suggests higher precipitation probabilities whereas the ENS
is less ambitious with a drier solution. Have stuck with the
NBM probabilities of 10-30% due to these variations.

Better agreement comes late next week as a stronger shortwave
propagates into the Northern Plains along the northern periphery
of a resurging ridge. It`s challenging to pin down any
specifics this far out, but current probabilities of
precipitation increase to 20-40%.

Mild then Warming Temperatures

The cooler 925hPa temperatures associated with the high
pressure sinking southward into the upper Midwest has allowed
for mild surface temperatures for this time of year, generally 5
to 10 degrees below average. These cooler temperatures continue
through the weekend before the high pressure shifts eastward,
allowing for southerly return flow off the Gulf which will usher
warm, moist air into the Midwest by the middle of next week.
The current 6-10 day temperature outlook indicates above normal
temperatures are favored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

HRRR and RAP conitnue to show smoke across the area through the
TAF period. This smoke will reduce keep visibilities in the 3-5
mile range. With light and variable winds overnight/early
morning Saturday and mainly clear skies, some fog will possible
in river valleys and cranberry bogs in central Wisconsin. This
fog may reduce visibilities into the IFR/MVFR range.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Boyne