754
FXUS63 KARX 240255
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
945 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this afternoon and early evening. Main
  threat will be wet microbursts.

- Several rounds of heavy rain expected from late Tuesday night
  into Thursday night. If training storms can occur, there will
  be the potential of flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This Afternoon into the Evening

A cold front will move through the area. Surface-based CAPES are
range from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. The effective shear are in the 35
to 40 knot range. With freezing levels up to 15,000 feet and a
skinny CAPE profile, the probabilities for large hail look low
generally less than 2 percent. With precipitable water values up
to 2 inches and DCAPES ranging from 800 to 1100 J/kg, it
appears that our primary severe weather risk will be from wet
microbursts. There will be the potential for heavy rain as the
remnants of Erick moves northeast through the region.

Tuesday and Tuesday Evening

The front will move south toward the Interstate 80 corridor.
Surface-based CAPES south of Interstate 90 will be up to 750
J/kg. With weak 850 mb convergence, only expecting scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Late Tuesday Night into Thursday Night

The front move back north and then stall and north of the
Interstate 90 corridor. As several waves move along this
boundary there will be several rounds of showers and storms
moving through the region. Precipitable water values along and
north of this front will be near 2 inches and between 1.8 and 2
inches south of this front. Warm cloud layer depths climb into
the 3.5 to 4 km range. This result in the potential for heavy
rain. The mean QPF in the ensembles are ranging from 2 to 4
inches for this time period. The 23.12z LREF probabilities for 4
inches or greater remains in the 10 to 25 percent range.

The flooding potential remains unclear due to uncertainties on
where this front will be located and where training showers and
storms are able to occur. Flash flooding potential will be
confined to these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Wavering frontal boundary makes for a challenging cig/pcpn forecast
for the TAF sites. Depending on where the front lays up/moves - and
interactions with a variety of smaller scale features - cigs could
drop into MVFR, or move back into VFR (and vice versa). The bulk of
the shra/ts continues to be favored south of I-90 by the CAMS for
the rest of tonight, potentially not returning until late Tue
night/Wed. However, confidence shaky on the TAF sites staying dry in
the near term and will have to monitor short term trends/radar
closely. Expect updates and revisions to the forecast.

Winds generally light, mostly northerly through the night time
hours, becoming more easterly moving into Tue night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rieck