310
FXUS63 KARX 220601
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1201 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Sunday night with above-normal temperatures.

- Rain chances from Monday afternoon through Tuesday...and then
  a gradual transition to rain and snow on Tuesday night...and
  snow Wednesday.

- Much colder on Thanksgiving with wind chills as low as the
  single digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Weekend

A weak cold front will move southeast through the area on
Saturday afternoon and evening. With the soundings showing very
little moisture with this system, kept the forecast dry. With
the air mass in the wake of this system being of Pacific origin,
there will be little temperature difference. High temperatures
will range from the mid-40 to around 50 along and north of
Interstate 94, and in the lower and mid-50s elsewhere for both
days.

Monday through Wednesday

A shortwave trough will eject out of the southwest US and then
move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and
Great Lakes. There are 2 general camps on how this will occur.
The first is that it will be rather progressive and move quickly
northeast through the area. This currently comprises of 78% of
the Grand Ensemble members. The second camp has this wave
phasing with the northern stream. This results in a much
stronger system (including a closed 500 mb and surface low) and
deformation band of precipitation. This cluster comprises mainly
of GEFS members and a total of 22% of the Grand Ensemble.

Thanksgiving

All of members are in general agreement that the area will be
seeing cold air advection in the wake of the ejecting shortwave
trough. Less than a quarter (22%) of the Grand Ensemble has some
lingering light snow showers over the area. High temperatures
will range from the mid-20s to mid-30s. Low temperatures on
Thanksgiving morning will range from the mid-teens to lower 20s
with wind chills in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Clear skies have allowed surface cooling near surface dewpoint
temperatures, raising concerns of visibility reductions
primarily along river valleys through the early morning hours.
Local La Crosse, WI webcam imagery suggests formation of a fog
dome over KLSE at 21.06Z TAF issuance while satellite imagery
and surface observations aren`t registering similarly yet.
Further forecast difficulty from a changing low level pattern
through the overnight hours. Model solutions appear quicker than
low level observations for center of low level high pressure as
radar wind profiles show anticlockwise low level flow still
upstream of the local forecast area. Therefore, have opted
pessimistically with FG at KLSE, including TEMPO MIFG at KLSE
through the early morning hours. Additionally, VFR visibility
<10SM seen west of the Mississippi River Valley will linger
until low level wind field increases in wake of passing high
pressure. Should FG be more substantial and build off the
surface, will require AMD at KLSE over the next couple of hours.

Winds rotate clockwise through the 21.06Z TAF period. Fog
impacts Sunday morning will be limited by increased off surface
winds.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JAR