284
FXUS63 KARX 061831
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
130 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers persist into this evening.

- Seasonable temps into Tue, then warming through the weekend.

- Frost/Freeze potential from I-94 corridor northward Wed morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

> OVERVIEW: surface cold front currently laying out from SE WI into
central IL will exit southeast later tonight. Cyclonic flow a loft
persists for Tue before upper level ridging builds in from the
plains. The GEFS and EPS remain adamant that a shortwave trough will
drop southeast out of Canada and across the ridge axis Thu night/Fri
morning. Some differences over the past few days on
placement/strength, but latest favored track would bring it across
the local forecast area. The ridge reestablishes itself for the
weekend. Long term guidance not favoring a blocking pattern, rather
the flow is looking more progressive moving into next week.


> RAIN CHANCES: sfc cold front currently laying out from southeast
WI southwest across central IL. Showers continue to spark along the
front, moving northeast. Bits of shortwave energy were moving
northeast out of the plains/IA and will work across the boundary
this afternoon into early evening - and expect some increase in
areal coverage of the rain as this occurs. CAMS trending toward
expanding northward into the I-94 corridor. Thunder threat looks
minimal to none with the instability pool south of the cold front.

The Thu night/Fri morning shortwave will bring the next shot for
rain. Not a lot of QPF currently indicated with the Grand Ensemble
painting only 5 to 15% chances for greater than 1/10". Limitation on
saturation a main drawback. Model blend holds the low end pops (20-
30%) which look reasonable at this time.


> TEMPERATURES: seasonably cool the next couple days as colder
(comparatively) air flows in post the cold front and northwest flow
a loft persists. By mid week, with the advent of ridging a loft,
temps will be back on the rise, which should continue into the
weekend. 75% of the GEFS/EPS ensemble members favor highs from the
upper 60s to mid 70s - with Sunday currently shaping up as the
warmest of the bunch. About 5% of the members suggest 80 could be
reached at a few locations.

But before we get there, clear skies and light winds Tue night could
drop temps to freezing across the I-94 corridor northward (25-50%
chances via the LREF). Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed in these
areas.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Light rain and MVFR ceilings are the main concern over the next 12
hours, mainly along and SE of a AUM-BCK line. Current thinking is
that the persistent MVFR ceilings will dissipate northwest to
southeast away from RST/LSE but potential for light rain will return
this afternoon. That said, confidence in location/timing of MVFR
ceilings is low due to thick mid-upper level clouds obscuring them
on satellite, so amendments may be needed this afternoon. Tonight,
while skies eventually clear and winds become light, expect drier
air to also move in at the surface, so have left out fog mentions.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Ferguson