320
FXUS63 KARX 191923
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
223 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  Monday. Some locations are currently forecast to reach the low
  80s on Sunday with the potential for a few high temperature
  records to be tied or broken.

- Tuesday night into Wednesday remains the most likely time
  period to see measurable rainfall through the next week
  (20-50%), with the higher chances along and north of I-94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Today

A weak northern stream shortwave trough will pass to the north of
this area this afternoon and early evening. There has been just
enough 850-700 mb moisture convergence for some scattered showers to
develop on radar, but not seeing much in surface reports. There is a
second area of showers located near the weakening surface front.
The CAMs are in agreement that this second area of showers will
remain to our west and north.

Unseasonably Warm Temperatures Through Monday

On Sunday, the cold front to our west will move east into the area
and then dissipate. Southerly winds ahead of this front will bring
anomalous warm air into the region. NAEFs 850 to 500 mb temperature
anomalies range from 1.7 to 2. In addition, we will be seeing 925 mb
temperatures to 19 to 21C. This will result in high temperatures
ranging from the mid-70s to lower 80s. These temperatures will be
warm enough that a few records may be tied or broken. The record
high is 82F for La Crosse in 2000 and 82F for Rochester in 1953.

Rainfall Chances Through The Week

A cut-off low will lift northeastward from the southwest United
States Sunday, making its way into the region Tuesday morning.
This low is progged to remain south of the Wisconsin/Illinois
border as it moves through the region with minimal chances for
precipitation (< 10%). The 19.12z EPS does suggest some higher
probabilities (10-30%) Tuesday afternoon, mainly in northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. However, the EPS has been trending
lower in it`s probabilities over the last several model runs
with the overall ensemble consensus suggesting low
probabilities of precipitation associated with this low.

A mid-level shortwave will dig south and pivot through the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. An associated surface cold
front will be dragged through the region ahead of the trough,
bringing better chances for showers to the region (20-50%). The
primary location of precipitation appears to be along and north
of I-94, in northern Wisconsin associated with stronger 850hPa
moisture transport and better moisture pooling while drier air
will be in place further south. Rainfall amounts appear to be
low, with the EPS/GEFS currently suggesting 0.1 inches or less
across the area.

Minimal precipitation chances remain through the rest of next
week, generally 20% or less, given uncertainty in the
upper/mid-level pattern due to the potential for several
shortwave troughs embedded in the mean flow traversing the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A weakening front will move southeast into the area. This front
will bring some mid and high clouds to the TAF sites. Winds
will remain out of southwest around 10 knots through the
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne/Falkinham
AVIATION...Boyne