446
FXUS63 KARX 210916
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
316 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warm up for the weekend with highs generally in the
  upper 40s to mid 50s.

- Increased precip chances (70 to 80%) for Monday into Tuesday.
  Should remain mostly as rain before potentially transitioning
  to light snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any accumulations
  will be minimal.

- Coldest temperatures of the season possible Thanksgiving and
  beyond

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today - Sunday: Dry with Warming Temperatures

An overall pleasant weekend looks to be setting up across the
region. A shortwave trough ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies and
corresponding surface low are expected to stay well south of our
area, keeping rain chances at bay. Areas along and south of I-90
will see some residual cloud cover from this system but otherwise
quiet conditions are expected today with near normal temperatures in
the 40s. For the rest of the weekend, northwest flow aloft is
expected to prevail. A shortwave trough will pass through the flow
aloft but current indications are that this should stay well to our
north and east across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Should this shortwave trek further south than expected
there remains a non-zero chance portions of North Central
Wisconsin could see some light showers Saturday afternoon but
the overall likelihood remains very low. South/southwesterly low
level flow returns by Saturday, allowing for above normal
temperatures to start working their way into the region with
highs this weekend climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Monday - Wednesday: Precip Chances Return and Cooling Off

A cutoff upper low across Southern California and the Baja Peninsula
is expected to eject northeast into the Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley through the day on Monday. At the surface, an occluding low
will follow a similar path, pushing a broad area of light
precipitation into the region after 12Z Monday. A little later in
the day, a secondary shortwave trough is expected to take shape and
drop south out of the Canadian Plains. There remain differences
in the mid-range global models as to how intense this trough
will be with the GFS taking a slower and more aggressive
approach and developing it into a full upper low as it moves
into the Upper Midwest. There`s still plenty of uncertainty as
to how this will ultimately play out but in any case, at the
surface, a deepening low should trek along the US/Canada border
Tuesday into Wednesday. While the surface low to the south will
start off the rain chances Monday, this second low to the north
will continue rain chances through Tuesday. A much cooler
airmass is expected behind the cold front from the Canadian Low
so a transition to snow late Tuesday into Wednesday on the
backside of the low will certainly be possible.

Overall rain/snow totals with these systems don`t look overly
impressive. While chances for precipitation look high, peaking
around 70-80% areawide Monday night, QPF looks limited as deeper
moisture only starts to make its way into the region early Monday
and quickly gets scoured out. NBM probabilities of seeing 0.5 inches
or more of rain remain less than 50 percent across the region. As
the colder airmass allows for rain to transition to snow Tuesday
night into Wednesday, there looks to be a 20-50% probability of
measurable snow, mainly along and north of I-90. Some residual light
snow showers will be possible for some during the pre-Thanksgiving
travel day Wednesday but most should see dry conditions and cooling
temperatures with highs in the 30s.

Thanksgiving - Next Weekend: Bitter Cold Makes its First Appearance?

As the cold, dry airmass becomes more established across the region
Thursday into Friday, our coldest temperatures of the season look to
be possible. Continued northwest flow both at the surface and aloft
will keep a steady stream of cold, dry Canadian air filtering
into the area. Highs both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday
currently look to stay at or below freezing for most with
overnight lows in the teens to low 20s. Chances for gusty winds
also lead to the potential for single digit wind chills during
the morning hours. If these come to fruition, these would be the
coldest temperatures of the season so far. A strong surface
high is expected to build south into the Northern Plains,
keeping conditions cold and dry for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

VFR expected through the 21.06Z TAF period.

High confidence for subsequent aviation impacts reaching the
Upper Mississippi River Valley Sunday night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...JAR