286
FXUS63 KARX 141109
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
505 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unusually warm today. High temperatures will be 15 to 20
  degrees warmer than normal.

- Due to a faster frontal passage, high temperatures were cooled
  into the lower to mid-50s north of Interstate 90 on Saturday.

- Kept a small chance of rain showers north of Interstate 94 on
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today

Southwest winds aloft ahead an approaching trough will bring
anomalous warmth into the region for today. 925 mb temperatures
will range from 12 to 17C. As this warm air mixes toward the
surface, high temperatures will range from the mid-50s to
mid-60s. These temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
normal.

Late Tonight into Saturday

A cold front will approach the area tonight and move through the
area on Saturday morning. The NBM had the area dry. From looking
at soundings, there appears to be enough low level moisture for
a chance of showers north of Interstate 94. With the CAMs in
agreement with this, a 20-30 percent chance of showers were
added to the forecast. With this front moving through the area
sooner in the day, temperatures were lowered north of
Interstate 90. High temperatures will be in the lower and
mid-50s north of Interstate 90 and range from the mid-50s to
mid-60s elsewhere.

Monday and Monday night

The models are in general agreement that a 500 mb trough will
be moving out of the Central Plains into either the Mid or Upper
Mississippi River. This impacts the northern extent of the
precipitation in the area. 78% of the grand ensemble have the
precipitation primarily south of Interstate 90. The remainder
members have precipitation across the area. Temperatures at this
time will be cool enough that it could be a rain and snow mix.
Any snow amounts look to be on the light side.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

CIGS: skc to sct vfr clouds through this evening. Increasing sky
cover with an approaching upper level trough/sfc front overnight/Sat
morning - but model trends suggest only mid level VFR cigs (at this
time). The bulk of these clouds look to clear east by 18z Sat.

WX/vsby: no impacts anticipated at this time. Next shot for pcpn
could hold off until 12z-ish Sat along/post the sfc front. However,
with lack of deeper saturation, most short term guidance holds
any chances north of I-94.

WINDS: southerly with a few higher gusts this afternoon around 20
kts. Winds should hold "up" tonight with Sat also looking breezy but
with winds shifting northwest toward 12z, post the cold front.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck