463
FXUS63 KARX 051042
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
542 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions for Northeast Iowa and
  Southeast Minnesota early this afternoon

- Rain chances from this afternoon through Monday night were
  increased into the 60 to 80 percent range

- Still looks to be a frost potential on Wednesday night. The
  highest probabilities (30 to 60 percent) are in central and
  north-central Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Today

A strengthening low pressure system will move northeast out of
the Northern Plains through northwest Minnesota and into western
Ontario. As this occurs, the pressure gradient at the surface
and aloft will remain tight today. Sustained winds west of the
Mississippi River will be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. Meanwhile, across the remainder of the area
will be in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
With the lack of rain over the past week, fuels have continued
to dry. This will increase fire weather concerns in southeast
Minnesota and northeast Iowa for early this afternoon. As a cold
front approaches the region, there will be a gradual return in
relative humidities and showers. As this occurs, the fire
weather concerns will wane. We have a issued a Special Weather
Statement through 4 PM to address the fire weather concerns for
the early and mid afternoon.

Rain chances from this afternoon through Monday night were
increased

A slow moving cold front will move slowly southeast through the
area through Monday night. It continues to look like there will
be adequate convergence along the front for showers and maybe a
few storms. With the CAMs being in good agreement rain chances
were increased into the 60 to 80 percent range. The highest rain
chances will be across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and
north-central Wisconsin from late this afternoon into this
evening. Meanwhile, the remainder of the area will see them from
overnight tonight into Monday night.

It continues to look like the better 0-3 and 0-6 km shear will
remain in the wake of the front. As a result, we are still not
anticipating any organized severe weather at this time.

Frost potential Wednesday night

High pressure will be located over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley/Great Lakes from Tuesday night into Thursday. The
coldest night continues to look to be on Wednesday night when
the NBM probabilities for scattered to areas of frost (35F or
colder) will be up to 30 percent west of the Mississippi River
and 30 to 60 percent across western Wisconsin. The highest
probabilities will be central and north- central Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions currently present across the region. Southerly winds
have remained strong through the overnight hours and will pick up
through the morning with gusts to between 25-35 kts possible at the
terminals later on. A cold front is expected to approach the area
later this afternoon, bringing rain chances with it. Models are in
good agreement with timing so have based timing off of 06.06 HREF
members with rain starting at RST around 21Z and 00Z for LSE.
Current expectations are that these showers will not produce
categorical drops in CIGs or visibilities (lower confidence in
visibilities) but amendments/updates may be needed with near term
obs. Some post frontal MVFR stratus may impact the LSE terminal late
overnight but confidence in its extent is too low to include it
at this time. Wind gusts are expected to come down as the front
passes through with winds shifting to the north/northwest at
between 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The combination of southerly winds gusting into the 30 to 40 mph
range, and dry fuels will result in elevated fire weather
conditions for this afternoon across northeast Iowa and southeast
Minnesota.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Barendse
FIRE WEATHER...Boyne