246
FXUS63 KARX 161056
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry afternoon relative humidities (around 30 to the mid-30s)
  this afternoon. Fortunately, the northwest winds will be on
  the light side (5-15 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph).

- Rain and snow will be possible (30 to 80%) from Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Highest precipitation
  accumulations will be south of Interstate 94.

- Another rain system will impact the area from Thursday night
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today

Afternoon relative humidities will range from around 30 to the
mid-30s afternoon. Fortunately, the northwest are on the light
side ranging from 5 to 15 mph. There may be even a few gusts up
to 20 mph in north-central and central Wisconsin. This will
greatly limit any fire weather concerns. High temperatures will
be much more seasonable with high temperatures in the lower and
mid-40s north of Interstate 90, and in the mid- to upper 40s.

Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Afternoon

A trough will out of the Central Plains on Monday afternoon and
Tuesday evening, and then move through the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley overnight on Monday night and Tuesday. The
ensembles show much better agreement on the track of the
surface low as it tracks southeast out of Nebraska, western
Iowa, and into northwest Missouri and then tracks east through
central Illinois. The models are showing more and 800-600 mb
frontogenesis. This banding has resulted in an increase of QPF
in the ensembles along and south of Interstate 94. They are now
ranging from a 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Soundings are indicating a
isothermal temperatures in this layer near 0C. As the forcing
increases, this layer could cool sufficiently that the
precipitation could transition to a mix of rain and snow or all
snow on Monday night. The Grand Ensemble is not showing much
snow accumulations (maybe up to a half inch) along and north of
Interstate 94. However, there are few ensemble members up to 5
inches of snow.

Thursday Night into Friday

Another low pressure system will northeast through the
Mississippi River Valley and southern Great Lakes. Still plenty
of uncertainty on how much moisture will make it northward into
the area. The weaker shortwave (43% of the Grand Ensemble) has
precipitable water values ranging from a half to three-quarters
of an inch. While the remainder members with a much stronger
shortwave trough have precipitable water values climbing over
an inch across southwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa.
Soundings suggest that any precipitation which falls will be in
the form of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

CIGS: SKC with a few high clouds filtering in from the west
overnight. Cigs move in as the day progresses on Monday, dropping to
MVFR/IFR Monday night as a shortwave trough brings ra/sn.

WX/vsby: no impacts expected through Mon morning. Rain and/or snow
then expected Mon night into Tue as a shortwave trough spins across
the region. Uncertainties in the thermal profile in the vertical,
impacting confidence on whether rain, snow or a mix will be
realized. Greater impacts to vsby if snow is predominant.

WINDS: northwest to west through the period, becoming light tonight.
Winds will swing to the east on Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rieck