366
FXUS63 KARX 062259
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
559 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers with a scattered storm here and there (10-40%
chances) for the weekend-Monday. Rainfall amounts generally 1/4-
3/4". Highs at/below seasonable norms with Mon looking like the
coolest day (highs in the 60s).

- Warmer (80s for highs Wed-Fri), drier for the middle part of next
week, but trending toward shower/storm chances by the weekend. Could
be much warmer the following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

* WEEKEND-MON: on and off showers with low end (10-20%) storm
  chances. At/below the seasonable norms for highs with Monday the
  coolest day (60s for highs).

A rather active weather pattern with various bits of shortwave
energy and upper level low and attendant sfc fronts playing roles in
bouts of showers and perhaps a few storms.

While some of the smaller ripples in the flow will be harder to pick
up, and thus time/track for pcpn chances (outside of the very near
term), there are a few features that we have a better handle on.

First is a shortwave trough set to push due east out of the central
plains tonight, spinning across the mid mississippi river valley
Sat, then lifting toward the eastern great lakes Sun. Current track
will keep the bulk of this feature`s precipitation just south of the
forecast area.

Next is a ribbon of upper level energy dropping in from the
northwest Sat night/Sun morning, preceding a trough/500 mb low. A
cold front will be reflected at the sfc with this feature -
providing additional lift. All medium/long range guidance paint a
swath of QPF with this forcing with the greater amounts north of I-
94.

Lastly is the aforementioned upper level trough/500 mb that is
progged to drop southeast out of Canada Sun night, rolling across
the region Monday before exiting east early Tue. A surface
trough/secondary cold front likely to hang westward of the low
center. Models latch on to this more defined forcing and produce
widespread, generally light rain. Monday is shaping up to be a wet
start to the work week.

Instability is meager at best, and mostly confined to the
afternoon/evening hours. Forcing could be enough to pop a storm here
and there too. All in all, thunder threat looks minimal (10-20%) and
not anticipating any severe (or strong for that matter) storms.

All the rain doesn`t look to add up to much for today through
Monday. The EPS remains the less enthused model suite with its 25-
75% running from around 1/4 to 1/2". GEFS, as has been the case, has
a bit more with 1/2 to 1". This is less than previous runs.

All in all, expectation is for everyone to see some rain this
weekend into Monday. More "on and off" through Sunday with breaks
from the showers. Monday is looking like a day with more rain than
not - a wet start to the work week.

The clouds and bouts of rain will hold temps down with highs at or
below the seasonable normals. Monday still looks the coolest with
highs mostly in the 60s.


* NEXT WEEK: dry and warmer for the middle part, more active moving
  into the weekend and then potentially much warmer the following
  week.

The GEFS and EPS remain in good agreement with building a ridge in
from the west, starting as soon as Tue, potentially holding on to it
for the weekend. All WPC clusters show the ridging, but trends over
the past few days have been to weaken the ridge. And while the ridge
would work to push any shortwave activity northward at mid week, by
the weekend a bulk of the EPS and GEFS members have energy pushing
across/over the ridge - and thus a return of shower/storm chances.

The ridge will serve to bump temps upward as warmer air pools
underneath it (along with less cloud/rain to tamp down on those
temps). The upper 75% of the EPS members have highs in the 80s for
Wed-Fri. The GEFS is not a robust at 50%. It is an uptick in temps
for both models over the past couple runs. A few of the EPS members
continue to push highs past 90 for a few locations. Fairly confident
for 80+ degree, above normal highs in the period. Just "how warm"
still a bit uncertain.

Looking farther out, the same WPC clusters point to a stronger/more
amplified ridge establishing over the west coast, which could work
east across the plains and local area for the following week. Much
warmer air could/would accompany it with high end outliers for high
temps in the low to mid 90s. The recent 8-14 day CPC outlooks shows
this, although favors the warmest air over the plains and southern
rockies. A lot can change that far out, but a scenario to watch as
it could bring the warmest air of the season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Highly isolated
showers are starting to dissipate across the area with chances
for activity diminishing quickly after 00Z. Chances for rain
tomorrow afternoon look more likely west of the Mississippi but
not high enough to include a prevailing group just yet so have
covered the chances with a PROB30 at RST for now. Chances are
too low for the LSE terminal so have left any mentions out.
Winds overnight should remain light and variable at the
terminals before picking up later tomorrow morning out of the
south/southeast with some gusts to near 20 kts possible for RST
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Barendse