120
FXUS63 KARX 030754
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
254 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke persists today bringing hazy skies, reduced
  visibilities, and decreased air quality.

- Showers/storms possibly return this week (20-40%), with
  prospects continuing into next weekend.

- Temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s through the week
  with increasing humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Persisting Wildfire Smoke

Upper level and near surface smoke remain an impact today and
possibly into Monday as high pressure begins its slow shift
eastward this afternoon/evening. Hazy skies, reduced
visibilities, and decreased air quality will persist, although
improvements near the surface have been noted, especially for
areas west of the Mississippi River. The HRRR/RAP smoke models
indicate Wisconsin should see the greatest concentration of near
surface smoke today. Near surface smoke should become less of
an impact over the course of the new week, but upper level smoke
will continue to linger.

Rain Possible This Week

Various shortwaves traverse the upper level pattern through the
week, bringing the possiblity of periodic showers/storms with
them.

The first shortwave impacts areas west of the Mississippi River
Monday, but the departing high pressure should continue to
influence our weather. This suggests the bulk of any
precipitation associated with the shortwave would remain west of
our area, across central to western Minnesota. However, some of
the CAMs indicate spotty convection is possible in our far west
towards south-central Minnesota and north-central Iowa, but
only indicate low probabilities (< 15%). Although our area may
remain dry through Tuesday, can`t rule out a rumble of thunder
Monday if anything is able to develop.

Additional shortwaves exert their influence through the end of
the week. However, the ridge over the Southwest United States is
expected to build northeastward into the Upper Midwest, which
may provide enough stability to hinder shower/storm development
over portions our area. 20-40% probabilities are depicted
periodically in the NBM beginning Wednesday afternoon,
continuing through the weekend.

Warming Temperatures

With the surface high pressure beginning to shift eastward this
afternoon/evening and surface winds becoming southerly, warm
moist air will begin to be ushered into the region. As such, warming
temperatures and increasing humidity continue to be expected
through the week. High temperatures reach the mid 80s by
Wednesday, nearing 90 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

CIGS: SCT/BKN high level (mostly thin) clouds through Sun night,
likely to persist through Monday.

WX/vsby: wildfire smoke continues to impact vsby from time to time,
although reductions aren`t as much or widespread as previous days -
mostly 5-P6SM. Smoke impacts could linger into Monday

Good setup for river valley fog tonight, but high clouds are trying
to filter east out of southern mn/IA. Also, the low level wind field
in the NAM/RAP/HRRR indicate 10+ kts by 2kft overnight. These will
work against fog moving off the river and impacting KLSE. Will hold
with BCFG for now. Sun night/Mon morning also looking favorable for
river valley fog - again, dependent on where high clouds to the west
move and whether the depth of the light wind layer can increase.

WINDS: southeasterly through the period and generally under 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Rieck