389
FXUS63 KARX 121129
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain likely (55-70%) returns late this afternoon into tonight,
  lingering into early Monday morning.

- Periodic rain chances then for the latter half of next week.

- Mostly at/above normal temps through next week. A breezy
  afternoon or two possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Light rain likely tonight

07z WV satellite reflects large scale troughiness over the northern
Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. In response to a
jet streak advancing over the central Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is
occurring at the surface in eastern MT, driving southeasterly winds
in our CWA.

Today into tonight, lee cyclone will continue to develop and shift
over Lake Winnipeg as the jet streak noses over ND. Attendant cold
front will sweep eastward through the upper Midwest. With admittedly
modest moisture advection occurring today, some rain appears likely
as the front moves through. However, with the bulk of the upper
forcing focusing to our north, do not expect mid-level temperatures
to cool enough for enough instability to develop for thunderstorms
or high rain rates more generally to occur. Additionally, with
antecedent conditions in the low levels being relatively dry, rain
totals will tend to be unimpressive with 12.00z HREF maximum QPF
mainly below 1" and mean values of 0.05-0.15".

Periodic rain chances Tuesday through next weekend

Progressive pattern looks to dominate the remainder of the next week
with GFS/EC and their respective ensembles all suggesting multiple
upper waves will break downstream over or near the CWA, leading to a
few periods of precip potential. At this time, convergence across
guidance on a single solution is low so have retained NBM PoPs which
place mentions of precip across many periods Tuesday through
Saturday night. Over this extended time period, most probable period
looks to be Friday night into Saturday when a deepening upper low
may drop southeast from the Dakotas.

At/above normal temps favored, a breezy afternoon or two possible

While a progressive pattern is expected, 11.12z NAEFS 500mb heights
will tend to be around or higher than model climatology. Thus, NBM
highs around or warmer than normal (low to mid 60s) appear
representative. Active pattern also opens the door for a breezy
afternoon or two if strong 700/850/925mb winds set up over the
forecast area during the daytime hours. At this time, best bets for
breezy conditions are this afternoon and Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A north-south oriented frontal boundary evident in satellite
imagery and increasing dewpoint temperatures on surface
observations is progressing east across the forecast area at
12.12Z TAF issuance. While the increasing moisture may cause
accompanying precipitation, lower overall confidence (<20%) and
coverage keeps mention out of either TAF site until tonight.
Although, scattered MVFR ceiling observations upstream cause
some concern for transient early morning aviation impacts.
Similarly, have not included at either TAF site given low
confidence and coverage at TAF issuance.

Main forecast concern will be increased south-southeast winds
into tonight. Highest gusts 30+kts locally expected west of the
Mississippi River Valley (KTOB, KAUM, KRST, KFKA, KCCY, KDEH,
KOLZ) and in central Wisconsin (KMDZ). While off surface winds
may near 50kts at 2000`, surface gusts abate LLWS concerns and
mention in TAF.

Higher precipitation chances progress from west to east later
this evening, becoming more widespread with local frontal
passage overnight into early Monday morning. Transient
saturation limits overall confidence and therefore have
continued PROB30 mention at both TAF sites. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be main impacts accompanying precipitation.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Precipitation chances and any
accompanying aviation impacts wane through Monday morning.
Subsequent potential precipitation (20-50%) and aviation impacts
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...JAR