229
FXUS63 KARX 082347
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, rain-snow exits east early this evening. Bulk of the impacts
hold south of the local forecast area.

- Scattered snow showers to flurries Sunday afternoon. Higher
chances across WI.

- Cold Sunday with highs not warming above freezing for many.
Morning wind chills in the single digits to teens. Not as cold
Monday but highs still holding under 40 degrees.

- 2nd half of next week promises warming with potential for 60+
degree highs by the weekend. Also trending dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

> WEEKEND-START TO NEW WORK WEEK: cold, scattered snow
showers/flurries for some Sunday

With the gradual sag south of the storm system tracking across Iowa
today, the main bands of pcpn pushed more south - limiting impacts
to the southern 1/2 of the local area. However, this trend also
resulted in the models bringing a bit more cold into the area over
the past few days - and that trend continues.

- PRECIPITATION: overall a couple of factors have been impeding snow
production across much of the area so far this afternoon with
Austin, MN being the only location to have noted any snow as of yet.
The first of these factors is some drier surface flow attempting to
push in from the northeast with dewpoints in the 20s across much of
eastern and northern Wisconsin. This is keep the northward advance
or precipitation to the I-90 corridor at bay with much of it
remaining to the south. Additionally, wherever any precipitation is
ongoing across northeast IA, fairly weak precipitation rates have
not allowed wetbulbing processes to fully be realized which in turn
has keep a large temperature and dewpoint spread and thus allowing
us to trend warmer with temperatures in the 40s across portions of
northeast IA and southwest WI. Consequently, will need to see some
cooling or heavier precipitation rates to move into the area to
likely see a transition to snow in most locations.

As we head towards late afternoon and evening, some cooler
temperatures will attempt to work in which in turn will potentially
transition rain over to snow prior to precipitation exiting.
However, given how weak the forcing in addition to the drier air in
place east of the Mississippi River, confidence is not high in how
any changeover would manifest as well as if rates will be robust
enough for any accumulations. In any case, precipitation will
generally exit the region this evening from west to east.

Another shortwave in the northern portion of the upper level flow is
set to drop south out of Canada Sunday, rotating around a closed low
just north of the Great Lakes. Add in low level cold air advection,
1000:850 mb lapse rates of 8-9 C/k and a lingering sfc trough and
these all portend to increasing chances for snow showers and/or
flurries - where saturation is available. Currently, where this all
comes together suggests WI would harbor the higher chances. Will
increase the low to none model blend chances to 20-30% - focused on
the afternoon hours.

- TEMPS: 850 mb temps still set to fall from around -5 C this
morning to around -12 C by Sunday morning. Likely holds there into
Monday morning. EPS and GEFS members are even colder for Sunday than
they were just a few days ago. Many locations now look like they
will struggle to reach freezing Sunday with highs Monday staying
under 40. With winds increasing from the northwest tonight, post the
exiting storm system, and continuing through most of Sunday - wind
chills will be factor. Single digit to teens for wind chills should
be expected overnight through Sunday morning. Bundle up! The cold
won`t stick around for long with 60s already back in the forecast
for next weekend.



> SECOND HALF OF NEW WEEK: return of seasonable to mild temps.
Trending dry

Long range guidance continues to point to increasing heights/broad
upper level ridging building in by the middle part of next week,
with the potential for a much more amplified/sharper ridge moving
over the region by the weekend. WPC clusters agree with the overall
pattern switch, but continue to show differences in timing/strength
of the ridge - which would impact temps and any potential for pcpn.

As it looks now seasonable temps will start to creep back in by mid
week. The upper 25-50% of the GEFS and EPS members then suggest that
highs will push back into the mid 60s for the weekend - under that
stronger ridge. Quite a swing from the bitter cold start to the
week. It`s still a week out, but this has been a steady signal in
the GEFS and EPS over the last few days - notching confidence up a
bit that this warming will be realized.

Most of the shortwave activity will be held north as any shortwave
troughs are forced across the ridge. Some hints for a weak
perturbation or two early in the week (might bring some light pcpn
chances) but the rest of the week looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Immediate term aviation impacts from rain/snow mix as far north
as Interstate 90 sagging south into the overnight hours causing
MVFR-IFR visibilities and ceilings. Given northern periphery
affecting KLSE and KRST TAF sites over the next hour, have
included impacts at both until 09.01Z.

Subsequent impacts will be increasing north winds overnight
through Sunday. Scattered snow showers will cause MVFR-IFR
visibilities primarily along and east of the Mississippi River
Valley through Sunday. Spatial extent and confidence remain
below mention for KLSE TAF site. Expect winds to weaken towards
end of 09.00Z TAF period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...JAR