298
FXUS63 KARX 021029
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke is likely to persist through this weekend
  bringing hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and decreased air
  quality.

- Rain possibly returns towards the middle of the week,
  lingering into next weekend.

- Mild temperatures through early next week, warming up into the
  middle to upper 80s for the rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Persisting Wildfire Smoke

Wildfire smoke is expected to remain an impact to the Upper
Midwest today and Sunday as northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure remain situated over the region. This morning
should be less smokey near the surface as compared to previous
days given a southward surge of near surface smoke yesterday.
However, winds become more southerly today which should allow
some of that smoke to return to our area. Diurnal mixing this
afternoon should also allow additional smoke aloft to mix to the
surface, primarily over central Wisconsin. Overall, hazy skies,
reduced visibilities, and unhealthy air quality are expected to
continue through the weekend.

Rain Possible Mid Week

Various shortwaves traverse a flattening upper level pattern
through next week. The bulk of rain probabilities associated
with said shortwaves remain either northwest or south of our
area through mid week, suggesting only 10-20% probabilities for
showers/storms on any given day, primarily in the afternoons. A
stronger shortwave moves eastward across the Northern Plains
late Wednesday into Thursday with more adequate moisture and
instability to work with. However, variations in timing/location
of this shortwave continues to hinder the amount of detail
available apart from a current 20-40% probability of showers and
storms during this timeframe.

Mild then Warming Temperatures

Mild temperatures and lower humidity are expected to continue
through the weekend while the high pressure remains over the
Upper Midwest. As the high pressure shifts eastward Sunday into
Monday, southerly flow develops across the region, ushering
warmer and more moist air northward. In response, warming
temperatures are expected next week, reaching into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

CIGS: expect mostly SKC/SCT conditions through tonight, likely
persisting into Sunday.

WX/vsby: wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region this
weekend with vsbys generally from 4 to 7 miles.

SCT/BKN 4-5 kft have worked against widespread river valley fog
early this morning - but where it was clear, fog quickly developed.
These clouds are exiting southeast per latest fog/stratus satellite
images - and there may be enough time for thick (sub 1SM) fog to
work across KLSE. Will likely hold onto the TEMPO for 1/2SM for now,
monitoring satellite/sfc ob trends and adjusting as needed. Winds
within a few hundred of the sfc stir at 10+ kts via the NAM later
tonight, working against fog impacts at KLSE for Sun morning. If
those winds aren`t realized however, it would be another favorable
river valley fog setup.

WINDS: light (under 10kts) from the southeast/south through the
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Rieck