439
FXUS63 KARX 120916
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
316 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy through this afternoon with winds out of the northwest
  gusting up to 40 mph.

- Warmer for the remainder of the week with the warmest days
  being Friday and Saturday as highs reach the upper 50s to low
  60s.

- Mainly dry this weekend but some chance for precip (20-45%)
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Breezy today

With a broad upper cyclone present over Quebec and a building upper
ridge in the SW CONUS, belt of strong northwesterly winds aloft has
set up over the CWA, with 08z ARX VWP returns of 50-55 knots at
700/850mb. With this jet likely sticking around until around 18z,
should get breezy conditions across much of the area shortly after
sunrise. Progged soundings suggest we`ll have trouble tapping into
the stronger winds up at 700mb with most guidance depicting up to 35
knots at the top of the mixed layer. Thus, current thinking is that
gusts should remain 40 mph or slower. 12.01z NBM largely concurs and
only has a 0-15% chance to exceed 40 mph today with the best chances
around Rochester while the 12.00z HREF is a bit more bullish with a
20-40% chance to exceed 40 mph east of the Mississippi, likely
driven by the always really windy ARW. With probabilities to exceed
45 mph at zero across the vast majority of the area, have continued
to refrain from issuing a Wind Advisory.

As winds decrease tonight and skies (hopefully for aurora watchers)
clear, temperatures tumble back into the 20s.

Warmer ahead

Southwestern CONUS ridge builds eastward through Friday. Split flow
regime develops with faster progression of a northern stream trough
noted with previous forecast update continuing with the 12.00z model
cycle. This greatly dampens enthusiasm for reaching 70 Saturday with
only our far southern areas having a shot (5-20% per 17.01z NBM) at
reaching this. Instead 60s are favored (40-90%) southwest of I-94
while Clark/Taylor are favored to remain in the 50s.

Small potential for rain this weekend, better chance Monday/Tuesday

Trend toward a faster progression of the northern stream wave also
keeps enthusiasm for precip this weekend low with 700/850mb never
really able to establish decent moist advection before it and its
attendant cold front sweep through. PoPs with the northern stream
wave Saturday are now around 15% or less. Instead, attention now
focuses on when the southern stream wave will eject east from the
Great Basin. While most guidance brings this feature to the region,
timing remains quite uncertain, thus mentions of precip stretch from
Monday morning through the end of the 7 day forecast Tuesday
evening. Aside from timing, trajectory of this feature and
prominence of troughing over Quebec will determine precip type, with
most guidance suggesting rain would occur, but can`t rule out some
snow at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

High pressure will provide mainly clear skies through the TAF
period. West winds will gust into the 20 to 25 knot range
through Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Boyne