Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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805 FXUS63 KARX 250010 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 610 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drizzle for many areas tonight, transitioning to snow towards morning from northwest to southeast before ending. Most locales should see minimal snow accumulation, but cannot rule out a quick 1 to 2 inches north of Highway 29 (20-30% chance). - Temperatures steadily cool through the week. Highs by Friday will struggle to reach the low to mid-20s. Overnight lows next weekend fall to the single digits with wind chills below zero. - Confidence remains low in the snow forecast for mid-week and beyond given that subtleties in the weather pattern will play significant roles in snow amounts and timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Tonight - Monday: Drizzle, Transitioning to Snow An elongated 1002-mb surface low was positioned over eastern Kansas early this afternoon with an attendant warm front arcing NE to E across central Iowa into north central Illinois. The surface warm front advances slowly northward this afternoon and tonight, but stays south and east of the forecast area. A moist easterly fetch under the 800-700-mb warm front will saturate the lowest 6-7 kft of the troposphere across the region tonight, with modest 280-290K isentropic ascent through this cloud shield--a classic drizzle setup. Given the light QPF and resultant lower PoPs in the NBM, did manually increase PoPs to the 50-80% range, values more reasonable for the sensible weather impacts. The drizzle looks to set in around 00-03Z and last through 09-12Z before the low passes to the south and cold air advection ensues. The main question in the forecast revolves around snow. The broad and rather disorganized nature of the cyclone does not lend us any favors in pinning down the rain/snow transition times and snow amounts. The thicker clouds today kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than earlier thought across central Wisconsin, Given the shallowness of the above freezing near-surface layer, snow is expected to begin 6 hours sooner north of Highway 29 and amounts over Taylor County have been increased to 1-2 inches. There is some concern that we may tap into the secondary dendritic growth zone with a 200-300-mb isothermal layer in the 0 to -5C region, so also increased snow ratios to factor in this possibility. Roughly 20% of the HREF members have 3-4 inches of snow in northern Taylor County. Attention then turns to the backside of the system Monday morning as sub-freezing air arrives. While the vast majority of the short-range guidance have minimal precipitation/snow amounts, the RAP has been the rouge outlier in strengthening the low to mid-level frontogenesis band and bringing a quick period of accumulating snow to the region, mainly north of I-90. Given the shorter duration of the band, amounts should be limited. Other convective models are warmer and weaker with the forcing, but the steadfastness of the RAP does give one pause and warrants further scrutiny tonight. Monday Night - Next Weekend: Colder, Low Potential for Snow The first surge of colder air drives southeastward during the day on Monday with lows Monday night falling well into the teens. Did trend cloud cover higher for Monday night given the cyclonic flow pattern in place and early signal from the RAP/HRRR long range runs that stratus may linger well into Tuesday. Tuesday will be quiet and cool as a low-amplitude shortwave ridge slides through. The main question will be cloud cover, which is very difficult to ascertain at this range. The LREF members still differ substantially on how far south the upstream shortwave pivots with the GEFS and EPS still aligned in their respective camps, but it is worth noting that the operational 24.12Z EC has come into agreement with the 24.12Z GFS in taking the surface cyclone over Missouri and Arkansas, leaving the local forecast area dry. Will have to assess how other ensemble members sort themselves out over the next 24 hours, but the forecast for Wednesday is trending drier. This midweek wave ushers a reinforcing round of polar air southward as highs slide further into the teens and 20s for the end of the week. The operational NBM lows fall into the single digits above zero for the weekend, with a 20% chance of lows below zero, primarily west of the Mississippi River. The northwesterly flow pattern for late week and the weekend makes it difficult to nail down any snowfall potential at this range, but there is a hint that we could see a clipper wave on Saturday. Roughly 50% of the LREF members have this snow band, but placements differ by several hundred miles. Have at least brought PoPs to mentionable values in the forecast, but much can change over the next six days. Looking farther ahead, there is some hope for a rebound in temperatures after next weekend, but there still exists a 10-20 degree spread in the guidance and most members keep temperatures below climatological normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings blanketed the area and will continue to see more widespread MVFR ceilings develop this evening as a shortwave trough moves into the area. Conditions will continue to deteriorate with forecast soundings showing low level saturation with IFR/Patchy LIFR conditions with drizzle and light rain overnight into Monday morning. The forecast soundings vary on the extent that the rain will mix with/change over to snow with the seeding of snow from aloft,the low level -3 to minus 5 deg C thermal layer, steep lapse rates, strength of frontogenesis and how much dry air there is in the mid levels. For now did mention a mix at KRST and could see a changeover for parts of southeast MN into WI. Some minor accumulations are currently forecast for Taylor Co., where surface temperatures will be colder. Will need to monitor this though. Light east and northeast winds shift around to the northwest after 07Z and increasing 15 to 20kts with gusts 25 to 30kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Zapotocny